Previewing the NHL's Draft Lottery

Tonight at 8 PM EST, live on TSN, the final draft order for the NHL's non-playoff clubs will be determined.  Previously, I've covered the rules of the Draft Lottery, as well as gone over the Canadiens' odds, but today we'll look at a couple of scenarios.

To begin, here is a table created by James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail showing where each team could draft, and the odds of each spot:

If we combine this with a look at the final Central Scouting Service prospect rankings released yesterday, we get an idea of the kind of players expected to be available to each team.

 Nail Yakupov is far and away the consensus top player in this year's draft, and thus the reason why many clubs have major fingers crossed to win tonight's lottery.  While there are many other prospects with a lot of potential, Yakupov - at least at forward - looks like the only "sure bet."  Mikhail Grigorenko is often accused of being a lazy player, Alex Galchenyuk has questions around him due to his lost season with a knee injury, and Filip Forsberg's offensive upside is also unclear.

So what of our beloved Habs?  If the 14.2% chance of the team moving up comes to pass - and the third-to-last place team has won the lottery three times since 2000 - then the team should consider no options other than drafting Yakupov.  No, he doesn't bring the size the Canadiens are ideally looking for at 5'11", 190 lbs.  Grigorenko and Galchenyuk offer more size down the middle, a weakness in the Canadiens organization, and Forsberg is a bigger presence at wing.  But Yakupov offers what the Habs truly need most - gamebreaking superstar talent.  Playing on, for example, a line with Tomas Plekanec and Brian Gionta, he could alleviate the team's lack of 2nd line scoring, and allow the club to play Rene Bourque (assuming he's back) outside of a top 6 role.  Yakupov is in fact perhaps the only forward from this year's draft who should be a sure-thing to make the jump straight to the NHL next season.  All others will be a wait-and-see process going into training camp.

But let's say Montreal doesn't win the draft lottery.  Let's say the Blue Jackets win it, the most likely of scenarios.  If we assume that the Canadiens really want to draft a forward, then arguably Mikhail Grigorenko should be their man.  This shouldn't be a problem, as with the 2nd pick, the Edmonton Oilers are very likely to take a defenseman.  However, it doesn't mean the Habs are out of the woods.  There are a number of top-notch d-men the Oilers can choose from including Ryan Murray, Morgan Rielly, Cody Ceci, Olli Maatta, Jacob Trouba, Griffin Reinhart, and Matt Dumba.  Given this, if the Oilers don't see one of these players as far and away superior to the others, it is possible they trade with a team in the 4-6 range that wants Girgorenko in order to pick up some additional assets.  Montreal, at third overall, would thus be left in the dust, having to choose from one of the other remaining players.  Thus, even if the team remains at number three, there is reason to hold your breath until Trevor Timmins descends from the podium with the pick announced.

As for the lottery itself, what should Habs fans want and not want to see?  The top 5 picks will be unveiled on TSN beggining from #5, currently held by the Toronto Maple Leafs.  When the fifth pick is revealed, Habs fans should hope to still see a Leafs logo in that spot, as the last thing the team wants is for 8.1% chance of Toronto winning the lottery to come to pass.  If the logo revealed is Winnipeg's, it would mean that they won the draft lottery, dropping Toronto to 6 and the other top 4 remaining the same.  If the logo revealed is the New York Islanders, that means someone in the 4 slots below New York won the lottery and jumped up (possibly - but not necessarily - being Toronto).

If pick #5 remains Toronto, the only way the Canadiens could draft 4th is if the New York Islanders won the lottery, so that's what Montreal in the four slot would reveal.  If pick #5 has become the Islanders, then Montreal would be locked in the #4 slot unless it is Carolina who won the lottery, so that would be the logo Habs fans should hope to see in the envelope.

If picks 5 and 4 remain Toronto and the Islanders, the third pick would become the moment of truth for the Canadiens.  At this point, the winner of the draft lottery would have to be either Columbus, Edmonton, Montreal, or a team with the 10th to 14th best odds (who could not move into the top 5).  If the Oilers logo is in the envelope, fans can celebrate - Montreal will have won the lottery.  Otherwise, the Canadiens logo will be in there.  Of course, if the Habs weren't revealed as the fourth pick, regardless of what else happened in envelopes 5 and 4, they have to be in this one or the first pick one, as those are the only spots the system enables them to pick.  Thus, the latest that Habs fans could find out their fate is with the opening of this one.

So perform your rituals and ready your lucky charms, Habs fans.  Tonight is a big night in setting the stage for the evening of June 22nd when teams will announce their first round selections in Pittsburgh.  For one last time - for now - GO HABS GO!

06/10/11: Toronto 2, Montreal 0; false start for Habs

Rome wasn't built in a day. The Stanley Cup isn't awarded in October. Et cetera, et cetera. Just like "it's only preseason," these excuses do hold some weight, but at some point your Montreal Canadiens are going to have to start performing up to their potential.

If you didn't watch the game, don't be fooled by the boxscore. It may look like a hot James Reimer is the only thing that allowed his team, outshot 32-18, to win on opening night. The Canadiens may have technically had 32 shots on goal, but you'd be hardpressed to find more than a handful of quality scoring chances. Reimer was good, no doubt, but he was by no means forced to be anything more than just good.

The problems with the Canadiens in the opener were predictible. They looked much more like the 2-6-0 preseason team than just the team that kicked Tampa's butt in the final exhibition game. Montreal was "good" in the first period (there's that word again), but sloppy, unable to cash on a couple of in-close opportunities and often making one too many ill-advised pass despite having puck possession for most of the opening frame. But Montreal was only good. In reality, the reason the play was so one-sided is that the Leafs were terrible, causing turnover after giveaway after turnover. When Toronto started to play a little in the second, the tide turned just as quickly.

The defense, my biggest concern coming into the season, was weak. Josh Gorges and Hal Gill are effective shot blockers, but as a group, they lack major leaders and minute-eaters, or true physical/containment types. The team misses Roman Hamrlik and James Wisniewski right now, no doubt, and will continue to miss them until Andrei Markov is healthy enough to play. P.K. Subban did not have a good night, being one of those at fault on both Maple Leaf goals, and for a second time in his three games with the club, Chris Campoli was unable to finish the night, this time seemingly out for the next couple of weeks. That is the gamble you take in banking on a guy who hasn't had a full training camp. The groin is a major area of concern.

The bottom pairing of Raphael Diaz and Jaroslav Spacek frankly didn't look to be NHL caliber last night. You can blame it on Diaz's nerves, but Spacek is a veteran who was hoping to make amends for a poor year and was coming off a good preseason. He is certainly at high risk of losing his job as players get healthier.

Speaking of veterans coming off good preseasons and hoping to impress, Scott Gomez seemed to revert to the guy he was all of last season. It's only one game, of course, but the effort level and turnovers from Gomez were far from encouraging.

The team's powerplay was atrocious, much like it was throughout preseason, and the experiment of Tomas Plekanec at the point will and should be short-lived. The penalty kill, along with the play of Carey Price (though he didn't have the busiest of evenings) was one of the few bright spots on an anticlimactic evening for Canadiens fans around the globe.

But don't despair. It's only one game. The team wasn't going to go 82-0-0. All they have to do is regroup and walk into a rocking building in Winnipeg to steal the Jets' thunder Sunday night.

Let the 2011-12 Drive for 25 Begin!

At long last, we've made it! After an off-season that just couldn't end soon enough, filled with heartbreaking tragic losses and the constant reminder that the dreaded Boston Bruins are the current Stanley Cup Champions, this evening we have the opportunity to put the summer behind us and focus on the ultimate goal: bringing a 25th Stanley Cup to Montreal.

A little after 7:00 PM tonight, the long haul that is the NHL's regular season will get underway with a match between Original 6 rivals the Toronto Maple Leafs and your Montreal Canadiens. In preparation for that, here are you gameday notes:

MONTREAL CANADIENS

Mike Cammalleri - Tomas Plekanec - Andrei Kostitsyn

Max Pacioretty - Scott Gomez - Brian Gionta

Mathieu Darche - David Desharnais - Erik Cole

Travis Moen - Andreas Engqvist - Yannick Weber

Hal Gill - P.K. Subban

Chris Campoli - Josh Gorges

Jaroslav Spacek - Raphael Diaz

Carey Price

Peter Budaj

Press Box: Alexei Emelin, Lars Eller (injured), Blair Betts (injured)

Injured Reserve: Andrei Markov, Ryan White

- Newly acquired Blair Betts was absent from practice today as he rehabs a minor shoulder injury. He will not play tonight, but is day-to-day.

- Defenseman Jeff Woywitka was claimed off waivers by the New York Rangers. As such, his stay in the organization was a short one.

- RDS reported yesterday that though Lars Eller is expected to get medical clearance from doctors today, it should still be at least a week or two before he is ready for game action.

- Carey Price will wear pink-accented pads throughout the month of October for breast cancer awareness, but due to a holdup waiting for league approval, they will not be ready for tonight's game.

A couple of video previews of the coming season for the Habs found on YouTube:

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Joffrey Lupul - Tyler Bozak - Phil Kessel

Matt Frattin - Mikhail Grabovski - Nikolai Kulemin

Philippe Dupuis - Dave Steckel - Colby Armstrong

Jay Rosehill - Matthew Lomobardi - Mike Brown

Carl Gunnarsson - Dion Phaneuf

John-Michael Liles - Luke Schenn

Jake Gardiner - Mike Komisarek

James Reimer

Jonas Gustavsson

Press Box: Cody Franson, Colton Orr, Clarke MacArthur (suspended)

Injured Reserve: Tim Connolly, Nazem Kadri

Here's the enemy's perspective. A Leafs preview video:

And finally, a non-Habs, non-Leafs focused video to get you pumped for the NHL season to come:

2011/12 NHL Preview - Northeast Division

And finally we arrive at the Northeast. If you missed the earlier division previews, check them out here:

- Atlantic Division

- Southeast Division

- Northwest Division

- Central Division

- Pacific Division

BOSTON BRUINS

Projected depth chart / lines:

Milan Lucic - Patrice Bergeron - Nathan Horton

Tyler Seguin - David Krejci - Brad Marchand

Benoit Pouliot - Rich Peverley - Chris Kelly

Daniel Paille - Greg Campbell - Shawn Thornton

Zdeno Chara - Dennis Seidenberg

Andrew Ference - Joe Corvo

Johnny Boychuk - Adam McQuaid

Tim Thomas

Tuukka Rask

The defending Stanley Cup champions lost some depth over the summer, notably playoff hero Michael Ryder who signed in Dallas, and trade deadline acquisition Tomas Kaberle who joined the Carolina Hurricanes. Picking up some slack offensively will be a year-older Tyler Seguin who should now be a regular, and Benoit Pouliot who will be trying his luck with a third club in his short NHL career. Rookies Zach Hamill and Jordan Caron will battle for jobs in training camp but the forward group is deep enough that they are likely to start the year in the AHL. Brad Marchand was a hero (second only to the man in goal) in last year's playoffs and should improve on the 41 point he scored last season. With the possible exception of assist-man David Krejci, all of Boston's top 6 should be expected to top the 20 goal mark, and with quality two-way players in trade deadline acquisitions Chris Kelly and Rich Peverley on the third line, the team looks ready to compete again.

The Bruins defense isn't nearly as deep as their offense with a significant drop-off after captain Zdeno Chara. The addition of Joe Corvo should help the team's powerplay, but just as it did last year with the acquisition of Kaberle, much of the team's remaining cap space (over $7M with only Marchand left to sign) should go to patch a hole on the back end as this year's deadline nears.

Goaltending isn't something Boston has to worry about as Tim Thomas dominated the league through the regular and post- season last year. And even if, at age 37, he begins to slow down, Tuukka Rask, who stole the starting job from Thomas for one season in 2009-10, is capable of putting up equally as impressive numbers.

YourCanadiens Verdict: Conference contender.

BUFFALO SABRES

Projected depth chart / lines:

Thomas Vanek - Derek Roy - Jason Pominville

Drew Stafford - Brad Boyes - Ville Leino

Tyler Ennis - Paul Gaustad - Nathan Gerbe

Jochen Hecht - Cody McCormick - Patrick Kaleta

Tyler Myers - Christian Ehrhoff

Robyn Regehr - Jordan Leopold

Andrej Sekara - Mike Weber

Ryan Miller

Jhonas Enroth

Active on both the trades and free agency markets this summer, the Sabres enter the season with the best roster they've had since the Daniel Briere and Chris Drury days. At 5'5" and 5'9" respectively, Nathan Gerbe and Tyler Ennis are Buffalo's answer to David Desharnais and Brian Gionta on the Habs, with both showing last season that they belong in the NHL despite their diminutive stature. They will provide added scoring depth to a top 6 that was completed with the signing of Ville Leino, a player whose best seasons many feel are still ahead of him. It seems like top forward Derek Roy will be fully recuperated from his leg injury of last season when training camp opens in a couple of weeks which means Thomas Vanek should continue to score at a 30-goal, 70-point clip on his wing. Drew Stafford exploded last season with 31 goals in 62 games but it remains to be seen if that will be an anomaly for a typical 20 goal man or if it was simply a leap ahead in his development as an NHL'er. The Sabres do still have a bit of work to do to get under the salary cap, but the most likely situation seems to be a trade or demotion of Ales Kotalik up front and Shaone Morissonn on the back end, leaving the above roster unaffected.

Speaking of the defense, adding Christian Ehrhoff and Robyn Regehr gives Buffalo arguably a top 5 defense in the league for the coming season. Anchored by Tyler Myers, the top 4 is as good as any, and to provide further depth, 25-year old Andrej Sekera unexpectedly set a career high last year with 29 points.

For my money, Ryan Miller is the top goaltender in the NHL, and though his numbers took a bit of a dive last season, expect him to rebound behind his newly upgraded D and be one of the top fantasy performers in the league. The Sabres should get at least one more full season out of Jhonas Enroth, now 23, as a back-up, but it is likely he has starter aspirations and that will have to be with a different club.

YourCanadiens Verdict: Solid playoff team.

MONTREAL CANADIENS

Projected depth chart / lines:

Mike Cammalleri - Tomas Plekanec - Erik Cole

Max Pacioretty - Scott Gomez - Brian Gionta

Travis Moen - Lars Eller - Andrei Kostitsyn

Ryan White - David Desharnais - Mathieu Darche

Andrei Markov - Josh Gorges

Hal Gill - P.K. Subban

Jaroslav Spacek - Alexei Yemelin

Carey Price

Peter Budaj

Ah oui, les Canadiens. Pierre Gauthier managed to land his man on July 1st this year with the signing of Erik Cole to a 4-year deal. Cole seems like a great fit, bringing much-needed size and physicality to the Montreal forward core, but Habs fans need to hope that he'll fit in much better with Tomas Plekanec than he did with the Edmonton Oilers - his only other stint in the NHL outside of Carolina. Andrei Kostitsyn had some harsh words about head coach Jacques Martin printed in the Belarussian media this summer so it will be interesting to see how long he remains in Montreal, given that he's a pending UFA next summer and appears to be slated in for third line duty. He formed a nice duo with Lars Eller at times last year, though, so if the two stick together, it could mean a breakout year statistically for the young Dane. Max Pacioretty should be back at full strength after a vicious Zdeno Chara hit ended his season and what was a very hot breakout stretch for him. The team must hope that the hit and concussion won't cause Pacioretty to play timidly and to avoid the corners and front of the net - the areas where he was most successful.

Montreal lost two pillars on the blueline in James Wisniewski and Roman Hamrlik but will see the return of veteran Andrei Markov who, when healthy, can be one of the game's top defensemen. Markov will find his old spot quaterbacking the powerplay, meaning P.K. Subban should improve upon the 38 points he scored last year just from receiving passes from the guy at the opposite point. Alexei Yemelin will be an intriguing addition to the club, assuming he makes the big team out of camp, as he brings a physical toolkit the team has missed since the departure of Mike Komisarek. Jaroslav Spacek has (rightfully) fallen out of favour with much of the Canadiens' fanbase, but as a pending UFA, he will have the pressure of improving or seeing his NHL days come to an end following this season, which hopefully will inspire him to reach his pre-Habs levels of play.

Carey Price made Pierre Gauthier look smart for making the unpopular move of trading Jaroslav Halak by turning in the best performances of his career. After playing 72 games, Habs fans must believe that he is the real deal, but there will remain some trepidation that it could have been just a good season until he plays well consistently again in 11-12. No one will mistake Peter Budaj for a quality NHL starter, but given that he played 45 games for Colorado last year, he should be expected to get more action than the 16 games Alex Auld saw in Montreal (perhaps a 60-22 split).

Frankly, if things go right, this team could be as good as the Bruins and chase them and/or the Sabres for the division title. However, if Scott Gomez doesn't rebound from a horrid season, Carey Price is inconsistent, Erik Cole disappoints, the injury bug strikes, and Pierre Gauthier sits tight all year with this group of d-men, it could be a long season that sees the team finish outside the top 8.

YourCanadiens Verdict: Solid playoff team.

OTTAWA SENATORS

Projected depth chart / lines:

Milan Michalek - Jason Spezza - Daniel Alfredsson

Nikita Filatov - Nick Foligno - Bobby Butler

Chris Neil - Peter Regin - Stephane Da Costa

Zack Smith - Zenon Konopka - Jesse Winchester

Sergei Gonchar - Erik Karlsson

Chris Phillips - Jared Cowen

David Rundblad - Filip Kuba

Craig Anderson

Alex Auld

The Senators are rebuilding and the fact that they were rather quiet this off-season seems to indicate the process is on-going. Offensively, there are a number of young players who will try to establish themselves during training camp, including mid-season signee Stephane Da Costa, draft day acquisition Nikita Filatov, and 2011 first round pick Mika Zibanejad. The Sens will need some of these guys to elevate their play as the offense is quite thin beyond the top trio of Jason Spezza (slowed by injuries), Daniel Alfredsson (aging, injuries), and Milan Michalek (hasn't been productive since removed from the top lines of San Jose). College free agent signing Bobby Butler looks to have been a nice find for the Sens, putting up 21 points in 36 NHL games after getting a call-up from the AHL in his first pro season. If he can build on that, he should have the inside track for a top 6 job this year.

If you look at half of Ottawa's defense, you see declining veterans whose best days seem long behind them. Fortunately, the other half is comprised of top notch defensive prospects Erik Karlsson, Jared Cowen, and David Rundblad, the first of which broke out last year with an all-star game nod worthy performance, and the latter two expected to play their NHL rookie seasons this year after putting up big numbers from the blueline in their respective leagues. Rundblad in particular comes over to North America turning 21 in October and coming off a season where he scored 50 points in 55 games in the Swedish Elite League; quite an impressive feat. The Sens hope they've found a balance of new and old, but it is more likely the veterans slowly fade out and give way as the youth takes on larger roles.

Craig Anderson will get another shot to prove he can be a quality starter over a full season after putting up studly numbers following a trade to Ottawa from Colorado (.939 save percentage and 2.05 GAA in 18 games). Sens fans should be cautious, though, as he only has one season of more than 55 games under his belt, meaning Alex Auld should expect to see more action than he did in Montreal.

YourCanadiens Verdict: Out of the playoffs.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Projected depth chart / lines:

Joffrey Lupul - Tim Connolly - Phil Kessel

Nikolai Kulemin - Mikhail Grabovski - Clarke MacArthur

Colby Armstrong - Matthew Lombardi - Nazem Kadri

Mike Brown - Tyler Bozak - Darryl Boyce

Dion Phaneuf - John-Michael Liles

Luke Schenn - Cody Franson

Keith Aulie - Mike Komisarek

James Reimer

Jonas Gustavsson

Brian Burke kept no secrets that he was looking to upgrade his center position this summer, and after missing out on Brad Richards, he did so by signing the highly skilled but oft-injured Tim Connolly. Having missed only 23 games in total over the last two years combined, the Leafs hope Connolly's biggest issues are in the past, and that he'll find chemistry with Phil Kessel on the team's top line. If that works out, the Leafs may have a potent offense this season, with the second line of Nikolai Kulemin, Mikhali Grabovski, and Clarke MacArthur coming off a big season. Further helping the club's depth is the fact that salary dump acquisition Matthew Lombardi looks to be healthy and may join the club as early as during training camp. Lombardi played only 2 games with Nashville last year due to a concussion, but topped the 50 point mark in Phoenix the year prior. A number of young players will be auditioning for roles, but only Nazem Kadri seems like a safe bet to make the team out of camp. Joe Colbourne, Matt Frattin, and Jerey D'Amigo will be amongst those looking for a call-up at some point.

The Leafs lost a lot of their depth on D but also got quite a bit younger. Picked up in trades, Cody Franson and Keith Aulie both look like they could be fixtures for many years, while another acquisition, John-Michael Liles, increases the group's mobility and puck-moving skills, eating minutes while the younger players develop. The pressure, then, will be on Mike Komisarek whose career has taken a disastrous turn, and captain Dion Phaneuf who seems to have left his offensive game in Calgary.

James Reimer had a hot start at the NHL level, emerging from obscurity to post a .921 save percentage and 2.60 GAA in 37 games. Toronto faithful have to hope for at least a repeat performance from the 23-year old, but it wouldn't be the first time a young goalie rose to stardom quickly only to fall right back down. Fortunately for the Leafs, there is still hope that Jonas Gustavsson develops into "The Monster" he was seen to be, with several great performances towards the end of the American League season after returning from injury.

YourCanadiens Verdict: Bubble playoff team.