Restocking the Cupboard #1: Holding Steady - Fantastic Four

Welcome to the first installment of Restocking the Cupboard, a five week mini-series going live every Wednesday leading up to the NHL Entry Draft taking place June 22-23.  With the graduations of the likes of Carey Price, Max Pacioretty, and P.K. Subban over the past couple of years, combined with the trading of multiple 2nd round selections, Montreal's prospect system has thinned out considerably.  Yes, there are some interesting names turning pro in the Fall, but the organization needs some padding, particularly at forward and between the pipes.

Fortunately, Montreal is in a good position to do a lot of restocking at this very draft, with the third overall pick and a bonus second rounder obtained from Nashville in the Hal Gill trade.  For the first 3 installments, we'll look specifically at that third overall first round selection and Montreal's options with it.  Today we'll go in-depth about the only four players the team should or could be realistically considering in that spot, while next week we'll discuss the possibility of trading down, and in 2 weeks we'll look at what it might take to move up and whether or not it would be worth it.

With that said, today we will take an in-depth look at the four players who could become Canadiens on the draft's Friday evening if the team holds steady at #3.  Here's my take on each of the players and the pros and cons of selecting them.


Mikhail Grigorenko - Center - Quebec Remparts, QMJHL
6'2", 200 lbs - Shoots L
Rankings: Central Scouting - 3rd (North America); Future Considerations - 4th; The Hockey News - 3rd;

A lot has been said about Grigorenko this season.  Entering the season, there was excitement that Grigorenko had chosen to spend the year in North America, debuting as a rookie for Patrick Roy's Quebec Remparts in the QMJHL.  Some had him as a possible contender for the top pick, looking to dislodge Nail Yakupov.  It's hard to call a season of 40 goals and 85 points in 59 games, and another 10 points in 11 playoff games, all the while earning awards as the league's Top Rookie and Top Professional Prospect, disappointing.  But rather than see his stock rise, the questions about him have multiplied.

Let's start with the good.  Grigorenko came to the Q as a winger, but under Roy's tutelage, made a successful transition to center early on this season, even improving his face-off skills over the course of the year.  His big frame will provide size down the middle to whoever drafts him, and that is something the Canadiens could certainly use.  But despite his body, he doesn't play a power game.  Nor is he a speedster (not that his skating is a problem).  His game is high-end skill, with quick hands and good hockey sense, both as a playmaker and sniper.  Think the way Joe Thornton is a productive NHL'er, but more of a balanced offensive toolkit rather than an elite passer.  Though Roy himself indicated another year in the Q might be beneficial for the young Russian, if he can impress whoever drafts him in training camp, he already has the physical maturity to make the jump to the big league, which is something that can't necessarily be said about the other three below.

So what scares those who watch Grigorenko play about his NHL future?  First, he struggles with consistency, looking disengaged or unmotivated at times.  He has been accused of scoring the majority of his points against weaker opposition, and coasting/floating with important games on the line.  Some feel the lack of necessary intangibles (e.g. desire, work ethic...) will keep him from reaching his star upside, though scouts are divided on that; there are some who want nothing to do with him on draft day, and others who blame his disinterest on his being a man among boys in the QMJHL.  It was announced at the end of his team's season that Grigorenko had been battling mononucleosis, and some were quick to attribute this to a weaker-than-expected playoff performance on his part, so perhaps there are enough viable reasons to dismiss some of the fears about his future.

That would be all fine if those were the only concerns.  However, though Grigorenko played this season in Quebec, there have been murmurs coming out of Russia throughout the season that his former club CSKA still feels they have a legitimate claim to have him under contract.  Whether or not that is the case, further stories indicate that they will push hard to have him return home to play in the KHL as soon as next season.  The "Russian fear," if you will, has caused many clubs to pass on high potential prospects early in drafts before, and combined with the other concerns, this makes Grigorenko a risky selection.

In summary, Grigorenko is undoubtedly a potential future star.  But there are a lot of question marks to be resolved before he gets to that point.  Can the Canadiens risk gambling their highest pick in quite some time on such a player?  Or are they better off with a safer option?  Feel free to weigh in down below.

Alex Galchenyuk - Center - Sarnia Sting, OHL
6'1", 198 lbs - Shoots L
Rankings: Central Scouting - 4th (North America); Future Considerations - 2nd; The Hockey News - 7th;


There were both doubts and intrigue surrounding Galchenyuk at the start of the year, another player in the discussion as a top 2 or 3 selection.  While he is of Russian ethnicity, Galchenyuk was born in Milwaukee and holds dual citizenship, having opted to represent the United States in international play.  After a season with the Chicago Young Americans, Galchenyuk joined the OHL's Sarnia Sting in 2010-11, where he played (at least some of the time) with consensus 2012 top pick Nail Yakupov.  This had some wondering if Galchenyuk's impressive rookie season of 31 goals and 83 points in 68 games wasn't partially attributable to the work of his skilled teammate, and all were looking forward to seeing his development this season.

Enter the problem in his case: in a September 16th, 2011 preseason game, Galchenyuk injured his knee and required surgery on his ACL.  The recovery kept him out until the final 2 games of the 2011-12 season, and clearly it is hard for an athlete at any level to jump in and have an impact so late in the year.  He was held off the scoresheet in those 2 games, but did manage 2 goals and 4 points in the 6 playoff games Sarnia had before being eliminated, showing that he had fully recovered.

Will the injury scare some clubs off?  Perhaps, as a lost season of development at such a young age could potentially damage a player's career.  ACL injuries are also tough to judge, with lingering effects sometimes a concern.  But Galchenyuk brings a number of assets to the table that have most scouts dreaming about him falling into their reaches.  He is seen as a full package; a good skater who plays an intense game in all three zones, just as reliable on the back check as he is dangerous in the offensive zone.  If work ethic is a concern in Grigorenko's case, it is one of Galchenyuk's strengths, as his an ability to make good use of his solid frame.  All of these attributes have some comparing his game to that of Marian Hossa, who Hab fans will remember their team selecting Jason Ward one pick earlier in 1997.

As a responsible two-way forward, Galchenyuk seems like a Trevor Timmins-type pick.  But that isn't to say he's "more of the same" for Montreal.  At third overall, you're getting a player with a lot more offensive talent than a Kyle Chipchura.  You're adding size down the middle, which addresses an organizational need, and you're adding a center to build around in the team's young core.  What you aren't getting is an immediate replacement for David Desharnais or Tomas Plekanec.  Barring an unbelievable training camp, after not playing this year, it is almost certain Galchenyuk will be returned to Sarnia for another season by whichever club takes him.

Filip Forsberg - Right Wing - Leksands IF, Swedish Elite League
6'2", 181 lbs - Shoots R
Rankings: Central Scouting - 1st (Europe); Future Considerations - 5th; The Hockey News - 2nd;

The advantage Forsberg has over the other three names on this list is that he has proven he can compete with older men.  After getting a 10-game look with the Swedish Elite League's Leksand last season, Forsberg played a full 43 games for them this year as a 17-year old (he only turns 18 in August) and managed 17 points.  Of course, this also presents a challenge to scouts, as comparing potential between guys playing in very different leagues is one of the great difficulties the scouting fraternity faces every year.  While impressive for a player of his age, 17 points in 43 games is far from a dominant offensive output, and Forsberg didn't help himself with just 1 assist in 6 games at this year's World Junior Championship.

Indeed, if you hadn't seen the guy play, you might wonder from his stat page why he's being talked about as a top 5 prospect for this draft class.  While the upside is there, there are legitimate questions as to whether or not Forsberg will be enough of a scorer at the pro level to be a true first liner.  Certainly he does have the potential to be; against peers his own age, he has been a point-per-game player, and capped his season with a highly impressive World U18 in which, as the Swedish team's captain, he scored 5 goals and 7 points in 6 games.

So what makes Forsberg (no relation to the legendary Peter) a top prospect?  Not unlike Galchenyuk, he combines a strong frame with great determination and two-way play.  If Bergevin is content with a small centre line provided he can surround the Plekanecs and Desharnais with more Max Pacioretty and Erik Cole types, then Forsberg becomes a real option, as he doesn't hesitate to dish out hits and play a power game.  Like Pacioretty and Cole, Forsberg's nose for the net means he's a shoot-first type, but there are concerns about his skill level as a high end prospect.  You won't confuse his ability to set up teammates with a Pavel Datsyuk, and that may limit his role at the NHL level to a good 2nd liner or ideal two-way third line winger that can still chip in 20+ goals.  Good at everything, master of little, which is often a red flag for scouts when looking at a prospect.

Still, if Grigorenko is a risk for factors mentioned, and Galchenyuk's knee causes concern, Forsberg is a very safe prospect, sure to be a contributor on an NHL club within a couple of seasons.  And, given that no one can be certain how he will respond to playing in North America, the team that acquires his services may end up pleasantly surprised, not unlike the Philadelphia Flyers with Sean Couturier.

Ryan Murray - Defenseman - Everett Silvertips, WHL
6'1", 201 lbs - Shoots LRankings: Central Scouting - 2nd (North America); Future Considerations - 3rd; The Hockey News - 4th;

Almost everyone has Murray as the top defenseman in this year's draft, and yet whenever I've watched him, I'm left wanting more.  Don't get me wrong, Murray is a stud prospect, sure to be an NHL defenseman in the very near future (particularly given his age, almost a full year older than Filip Forsberg).  But if we were to compare this year's draft with its plethora of talented d-men available to the phenomenal crop from 2008, Murray reminds me more of a Luke Schenn than a Drew Doughty or Alex Pietrangelo.

If there is a skill which sets Murray apart, it's his skating.  He has the look of a Scott Niedermayer on the ice, while slotting into a similar two-way role.  However, aside from his speed, he ranks as "good" in all other areas; shot-blocking, coverage, physicality, offensive awareness...  and all these "good"s combine to make him an extremely safe prospect to be an NHL player for many years.  But is a good and safe player what a team looks for at the top of a draft?  Generally not, as most want a home run in these slots, unless there is a real organizational need for something different (Hi, Edmonton).  Perhaps a team will think highly enough of him for his intangibles, as he does captain the Everett Silvertips

My problem with Murray isn't necessarily the player himself, but rather that I don't see him as leaps and bounds beyond the other blueliners available.  While Murray - to his benefit - is a picture of consistency, a player like Matt Dumba has shown a lot more flash during the course of the season.  Despite missing games with injury, Morgan Rielly's transition game and play in the offensive zone outclass Murray's.  Griffin Reinhart's 6'4", 207 lbs frame is something that Murray physically can't compete with.  Will Murray be better than these guys plus Jacob Trouba and Cody Ceci?  Perhaps, but I don't think he'll be that much better that it makes sense for a team who has taken d-men in the first round each of the last two seasons to select him at #3, with potentially comparable quality blueliners still to be on the board further down the top 10.

If Trevor Timmins and his staff disagree with my assessment and feel that Murray is too good to pass up on, it will at least shore up Montreal's left-handed shooting d-men for the foreseeable future, marking the third year in a row the team selected such a player with their first pick.  Certainly no one would complain about a young defense that includes Murray, Jarred Tinordi, Nathan Beaulieu, P.K. Subban, Alexei Emelin, and Josh Gorges in 3 years time.

And there you have it, the four names that logically make up Montreal's short list for the third overall selection.    If the tone in my evaluations wasn't clear enough, as of today, if I were making the selection, I'd go with Alex Galchenyuk.  Elite superstar potential, size at center, reliable two-way guy meaning he may be as little as one year away from an NHL debut, and without the risk factors of a Mikhail Grigorenko.

But whoever the Canadiens end up taking with this pick, do know two things:
1) The team will be adding a huge piece of the future contender puzzle
2) Do not expect the player to spend more than a 10-game trial (IF that) in Montreal next season

Top 10 Players to Consider at 3rd Overall

If you're like me, then you like to do your own research about a player, combined with takes from a variety of sources, rather than just reading something and making a snap judgment.  It is in this light that today's article will not go in depth about who the Canadiens should take at third overall and why that player is better than all the rest.  Instead, it will give an overview of 10 guys, in a very rough order, about whom you should do some learning over the next 2 months in preparation for the NHL Entry Draft.  In early June, in the weeks leading up to the draft, once I've completed a more thorough analysis of some of these guys, I'll go over my take on who the team should pick and the players' respective strengths and weaknesses.

Without further ado, 10 "prizes" that might await the Habs for their season of hardship.

10. Olli Maatta, D, London Knights (OHL)

When preparing my final top 10 for the Habs' pick prior to last year's draft, I slanted it heavily towards forwards, indicating that was the direction I hoped the team would go.  We now know that the team went with a slider in defenseman Nathan Beaulieu, a pick which may work out well, but which also further accentuates the need to draft a forward this year.  Thus, though there are a number of high potential d-men available, only a few are listed here, with many like Morgan Rielly, Jacon Trouba, Griffin Reinhart, and Matthew Dumba being just as good - if not better - prospects than some of the players listed here, but not filling as much of a need in the organization's depth chart.

If the team does take a d-man though, it is likely that they are most familiar with Maatta, who plays for Jarred Tinordi's London Knights.  The Finnish-born two-way blueliner isn't quite as big as the towering Tinordi, but can handle his own at 6'2", 198 lbs.  On the stacked Knights roster, he finished an impressive +25 as a rookie, and has taken his game up another notch in the playoffs with 12 points in 10 games thus far.

9. Cody Ceci, D, Ottawa 67s (OHL)

Another defenseman who might get consideration is Ceci, who posted a major jump in the NHL Central Scouting Rankings, going from 16th amongst North American skaters at the midterm to 6th.  Ceci, like Beaulieu last year, is a late birthday, meaning he has already completed three full seasons in the Ontario League and will be eligible to jump to the AHL after just one more season of junior hockey.  His numbers this season were head-turning, with 60 points in 64 games ranking behind only Dougie Hamilton offensively. At 6'2", 203 lbs, he already possesses a very solid frame as well.

8. Zemgus Girgensons, C, Dubuque Fighting Saints (USHL)

Scouts have a very tough time comparing USHL players with CHL prospects and European youngsters as play in every league varies significantly.  As such, Girgensons is a bit of a wildcard in the first round, especially as some teams may be hesitant to draft a player of Latvian origin so early (see: the Anze Kopitar effect).  But Girgensons should go early, leading his club with 55 points in 49 games this season, and scoring 2 goals in 6 World Junior games on a weak Latvian squad.  A year earlier, he helped Latvia return to the U20 top division by scoring 4 goals and 7 points in 5 D1 games before his 17th birthday.  At 6'1", 182 lbs, Girgensons shows potential to fill out and become an imposing force down the middle.

7. Teuvo Teravainen, RW, Jokerit Helsinki (Finland)

At 5'10" and 185 lbs, Teravainen doesn't have the size the Canadiens are looking for, but there is little doubt in his skill.  At 17, after scoring 12 goals and 20 points in 11 Finish junior league games, he was called up to the men's league and produced 18 points in 40 games.  He picked it up further scoring 6 points in 9 SM-Liiga playoff games this year.

6. Brendan Gaunce, C, Belleville Bulls (OHL)

Gaunce is a big center like Hab fans have been clamouring for, with a strong 6'2", 205 lbs frame.  Not only did he increase his production from 36 points in 65 games a year ago to 68 in 68 this season (leading his team by 17 points), but he also went from a -31 to a +4.  Gaunce has shown some of what Brian Burke would call truculence, willing to drop the gloves when the need is there.  Anyone on this list here and lower would be a stretch at #3, and would likely mean the Canadiens traded down from where they stood.

5. Ryan Murray, D, Everett Silvertips (WHL)

Murray is seemingly the consensus top defenseman in the draft, so he may be the only blueliner that Hab fans would be able to digest the team taking.  He's not as big as the d-men lower on this list at 6'0", 185 lbs, but he is solid defensively and able to contribute up front with 31 points in 46 games this year (and 3 goals and 5 points in just 4 playoff games).  The word is that Kevin Lowe has approached Murray about playing for Team Canada at this year's World Championships, which will give all scouts a look at how he fares against older and bigger competition.

4. Radek Faksa, C, Kitchener Rangers (OHL)

A native of Opava, Czech Republic, Faksa is another big center at 6'3", 202 lbs.  He crossed over to North America for this season and scored 29 goals and 67 points in 62 games as an OHL rookie.  On the downside, he did miss a bit of time with a concussion, and his scoring clip dipped in the playoffs with 5 points in 8 games.  Still, he plays a strong two-way game, so he may be the kind of complete player the Canadiens like.

3.  Filip Forsberg, LW, Leksand (Sweden)

A popular pick amongst Hab fans for the Canadiens selection, the young 6'1", 176 lbs Forsberg can play any forward position, though he spent most of this year on the wing.  Forsberg made his men's league debut a year ago at the age of just 16, and played 43 games for Leksand (which played in the second tier league since they had been demoted) this season, scoring 17 points against much older competition.  Forsberg won't turn 18 until August and possesses a high level of skill along with a coveted right-handed shot, but he failed to improve his ranking with just 1 assist in 6 games at this year's World Junior Championships.  Lots of potential as a future NHL two-way first liner, but his offensive upside remains a bit of a question mark since he has not dominated offensively on any major stage.  He needs to fill out, but the fact that he has competed against men has some believing he is reasonably close to NHL-ready.

1/2.  Alex Galchenyuk, C, Sarnia Sting (OHL) and Mikhail Grigorenko, C, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL)

Come June, I will make a pick between Galchenyuk and Grigorenko as to who I think would be the better choice for the Canadiens, but I'm not ready to make a call just yet.  Both are skilled centers, with Galcheyuk standing 6'1", 185 lbs, and Grigorenko 6'2", 191 lbs, but Galchenyuk is seen as the more complete two-way player of the two.  Grigorenko has the slightly flashier offensive numbers, scoring 85 points in 59 games this season on his way to being named QMJHL rookie of the year, but has also been criticized of disappearing at times, or being lazy.  Galchenyuk missed the vast majority of this season following knee surgery, but a year ago had 83 points in 68 games has an OHL rookie centering consensus number 1 pick Nail Yakupov (left off this list because he will be unavailable to Montreal unless the team trades up to first).  Some say he might have even been in the conversation for first overall had he played this season, while others wonder if his numbers were inflated from playing with Yakupov.  His work ethic and American development roots have many thinking he may be a Trevor Timmins type of guy.  With either of these young men, the Habs will be adding a potential superstar, though it should also be mentioned that there is no guarantee either is ready for a starring role this very Fall.

Previewing the NHL's Draft Lottery

Tonight at 8 PM EST, live on TSN, the final draft order for the NHL's non-playoff clubs will be determined.  Previously, I've covered the rules of the Draft Lottery, as well as gone over the Canadiens' odds, but today we'll look at a couple of scenarios.

To begin, here is a table created by James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail showing where each team could draft, and the odds of each spot:

If we combine this with a look at the final Central Scouting Service prospect rankings released yesterday, we get an idea of the kind of players expected to be available to each team.

 Nail Yakupov is far and away the consensus top player in this year's draft, and thus the reason why many clubs have major fingers crossed to win tonight's lottery.  While there are many other prospects with a lot of potential, Yakupov - at least at forward - looks like the only "sure bet."  Mikhail Grigorenko is often accused of being a lazy player, Alex Galchenyuk has questions around him due to his lost season with a knee injury, and Filip Forsberg's offensive upside is also unclear.

So what of our beloved Habs?  If the 14.2% chance of the team moving up comes to pass - and the third-to-last place team has won the lottery three times since 2000 - then the team should consider no options other than drafting Yakupov.  No, he doesn't bring the size the Canadiens are ideally looking for at 5'11", 190 lbs.  Grigorenko and Galchenyuk offer more size down the middle, a weakness in the Canadiens organization, and Forsberg is a bigger presence at wing.  But Yakupov offers what the Habs truly need most - gamebreaking superstar talent.  Playing on, for example, a line with Tomas Plekanec and Brian Gionta, he could alleviate the team's lack of 2nd line scoring, and allow the club to play Rene Bourque (assuming he's back) outside of a top 6 role.  Yakupov is in fact perhaps the only forward from this year's draft who should be a sure-thing to make the jump straight to the NHL next season.  All others will be a wait-and-see process going into training camp.

But let's say Montreal doesn't win the draft lottery.  Let's say the Blue Jackets win it, the most likely of scenarios.  If we assume that the Canadiens really want to draft a forward, then arguably Mikhail Grigorenko should be their man.  This shouldn't be a problem, as with the 2nd pick, the Edmonton Oilers are very likely to take a defenseman.  However, it doesn't mean the Habs are out of the woods.  There are a number of top-notch d-men the Oilers can choose from including Ryan Murray, Morgan Rielly, Cody Ceci, Olli Maatta, Jacob Trouba, Griffin Reinhart, and Matt Dumba.  Given this, if the Oilers don't see one of these players as far and away superior to the others, it is possible they trade with a team in the 4-6 range that wants Girgorenko in order to pick up some additional assets.  Montreal, at third overall, would thus be left in the dust, having to choose from one of the other remaining players.  Thus, even if the team remains at number three, there is reason to hold your breath until Trevor Timmins descends from the podium with the pick announced.

As for the lottery itself, what should Habs fans want and not want to see?  The top 5 picks will be unveiled on TSN beggining from #5, currently held by the Toronto Maple Leafs.  When the fifth pick is revealed, Habs fans should hope to still see a Leafs logo in that spot, as the last thing the team wants is for 8.1% chance of Toronto winning the lottery to come to pass.  If the logo revealed is Winnipeg's, it would mean that they won the draft lottery, dropping Toronto to 6 and the other top 4 remaining the same.  If the logo revealed is the New York Islanders, that means someone in the 4 slots below New York won the lottery and jumped up (possibly - but not necessarily - being Toronto).

If pick #5 remains Toronto, the only way the Canadiens could draft 4th is if the New York Islanders won the lottery, so that's what Montreal in the four slot would reveal.  If pick #5 has become the Islanders, then Montreal would be locked in the #4 slot unless it is Carolina who won the lottery, so that would be the logo Habs fans should hope to see in the envelope.

If picks 5 and 4 remain Toronto and the Islanders, the third pick would become the moment of truth for the Canadiens.  At this point, the winner of the draft lottery would have to be either Columbus, Edmonton, Montreal, or a team with the 10th to 14th best odds (who could not move into the top 5).  If the Oilers logo is in the envelope, fans can celebrate - Montreal will have won the lottery.  Otherwise, the Canadiens logo will be in there.  Of course, if the Habs weren't revealed as the fourth pick, regardless of what else happened in envelopes 5 and 4, they have to be in this one or the first pick one, as those are the only spots the system enables them to pick.  Thus, the latest that Habs fans could find out their fate is with the opening of this one.

So perform your rituals and ready your lucky charms, Habs fans.  Tonight is a big night in setting the stage for the evening of June 22nd when teams will announce their first round selections in Pittsburgh.  For one last time - for now - GO HABS GO!

A Day To Look Forward To

On the day of one of the most critical games for the Canadiens to lose against the 29th place Edmonton Oilers, I come with a message of hope. Were you getting depressed about the next exciting Habs moment still being 3 and a half months away at the Entry Draft in June? Then I have good news for you - you can cheer for your Habs to win something much sooner than that.

Following the conclusion of the NHL's regular season in April, a draft lottery is held to determine the final picking order of all non-playoff teams. For those that don't follow this too closely, it isn't the same kind of lottery as was held in Sidney Crosby's post-lockout draft year back in 2005 with all clubs having a shot at the prized top pick. Rather, it is a weighted lottery with any of the 14 eliminated clubs having a chance to have their name drawn. Having your name drawn, however, does not give you the first overall pick. Here's how it works:

14 balls are loaded into the lottery machine, and four are pulled out at random to form some number sequence. This sequence is matched against a random probability table of 1,0001 numbers with each combination corresponding to one of the teams. The team finishing 30th in the overall standings has the most slots on this 1,0001 number list, with 25% of the outcomes. The 29th place team has about an 18.8% chance of being selected, and the probabilities decline roughly as follows:

28th -14.2%

27th - 10.7%

26th - 8.1%

25th - 6.2%

24th - 4.7%

23rd - 3.6%

22nd - 2.7%

21st - 2.1%

20th - 1.5%

19th - 1.1%

18th - 0.8%

17th - 0.5%

Only one team is "selected" through this process. That club's pick moves up 4 spots (or simply to number 1 if it's one of the bottom 4 teams). So the 10th pick team would get the 6th pick, or the 7th place team the third pick, and so on. The rest of the order remains unchanged, meaning a club can't drop more than one slot down from where they finished, and the team that finishes last (Hi Columbus) has a 48.2% chance of retaining the first overall selection (including even if they don't win the lottery) based on this system.

That first overall selection will be highly coveted this year, as Nail Yakupov projects as by far the closest thing in the class to a can't-miss star. While there are a number of impressive eligible defensemen, that won't excite Canadiens fans after taking d-men in the first round for the past two seasons. After Yakupov, top forwards include Mikhail Griogrenko - about whose consistency and commitment there are questions - and Alex Galchenyuk - who has missed the whole season with a knee injury. While either Grigorenko or Galchenyuk would make a phenomenal building block for the Habs, especially given that they are both rangy centers - something the team has lacked for quite some time - if the team has the chance to get their hands on Yakupov, I don't think it would be worth passing up.

Yes, there is a need for a big center; I've reminded one and all of that fact on numerous occasions. But the far bigger need is for some legitimate star power, and this is much too great of an opportunity to land such a player to make any kind of gamble or mistake. While Yakupov is a little undersized at 5'10", 189 lbs, he plays the game with enough grit, skill, and tenacity to make you overlook the weakness. He will make fans still whining over the departure of Mike Cammalleri forget him very quickly.

Be sure to keep your calendars flexible Habs fans, as the lottery day is just about a month away. No matter what, Montreal will walk out of June's draft with a top prospect added to its stable, but upgrading the team's selection to #1 would be a tremendous consolation prize to a horrendously disappointing season.

What to do with Lars Eller

Ever since he became a Montreal Canadien, there has been tremendous pressure on Danish center Lars Eller. Jaroslav Halak had been idolized as a hero in the city of Montreal following his incredible run during the 2010 playoffs to lead the team to the Conference Semi-Finals. And yet, just a month later, he was sent to the St. Louis Blues in return for a 6'2" center who had just celebrated his 21st birthday.

Those were big shoes to fill for a young man having just completed his first season on a new continent, quickly establishing himself as an AHL star and scoring his first 2 NHL goals in 7 games with the Blues. Fans were quick to dream that the player who went 13th overall in the 2007 Entry Draft might be the true first line offensive center this team has lacked for over a decade.

But here we are, almost two years later. If you read the sidebar of this site, you'll see I list Eller amongst my favourite current Canadiens to watch. He is a good skater and his soft hands make him perhaps the best stickhandler on the club. He is capable of pulling off electrifying dekes in a role left vacant by the departure of Alex Kovalev. He can use his size to dish out the occasional well-timed hit. So he should clearly be a fixture for years to come, right? Well, there's a bit of a problem.

Just shy of 23 years of age, it is unfair to say that Eller has reached the pinnacle of all he'll ever be as a hockey player. It might take him another 1-2 years just to enter his prime productivity period. But his output thus far in Montreal - 7 goals and 17 points in 77 games last year, and 13 goals and 23 points in 63 games this season - is not that of a top 6 forward. He has shown flashes on many a night - none brighter than his four goal performance against the Winnipeg Jets - but also fades to obscurity on others. I wouldn't doubt his commitment or level of effort; rather, it seems the elements he brings aren't effective on a regular basis. To take that next step, his game will need to evolve by somehow working on his scoring touch around the net, or improving his strength and physicality.

I would still be hesitant to call any of this a problem, as I'm by no means ready to give up on Eller's game. As a young player developing on a third line, I strongly believe he can be quite effective. Placing him there also allows the Canadiens to roll three lines capable of being dangerous in the offensive end. The problem? That he isn't alone in that role.

None of the team's current top 3 pivots, Eller, Tomas Plekanec, or David Desharnais, fits the role of a fourth line center. The problem is that to improve the club, there remains a need for a more offensively dominant first line center. If the Habs succeed in acquiring such a player - whether through a trade or with their first round selection this summer - one of Eller, Plekanec, or Desharnais will be bumped, meaning the time for slow development and easing into a role is over.

Let's say the Canadiens draft Mikhail Grigorenko or Alex Galchenyuk, and come training camp in the Fall, the selected forward impresses so much that the Habs opt to keep him with the club. As the only real veteran of the bunch, Tomas Plekanec is quite certain to remain as the other top 6 center to ease the top pick's transition to the bigs (though I had previously suggested he is moveable if a big center is brought in through trade or eventually in future years as a UFA). Thus you're left with Eller and Desharnais fighting for a single job.

At 5'7", opting for Desharnais over Eller goes against the team's mission to get bigger. At the same time, however, choosing Eller's proven 23-point capability over Desharnais's 51-point (and counting) breakout season seems illogical on a team that frequently struggles to score. So what are our options?

1) Trade Desharnais

It is conceivable that Desharnais's physical limitations will catch up to him and that this season will be the most productive one of his career. If that is the case, it would make sense to trade him now while his value is maximized (especially given his basement bargain contract for next season which would be very attractive to many clubs). It is also possible that this is just one step in Desharnais's development and that - still only 25 - he will continue to be a productive player for many seasons. Can the Canadiens afford "giving up" on another local son to see him succeed elsewhere?

2) Trade Eller

Will Eller ever be a 50-point producer in the NHL? Certainly there would be teams willing to take a chance on the fact that he remains capable of such numbers. His value is quite certainly higher than Desharnais's even despite his lesser output to date, and he could be a solid chip towards acquiring another young player to fill a hole on the wing. The problem is the opposite of Desharnais's in that dealing him now would be moving him at far less than his peak value if he is to become such a player. But at the same time, by holding on to him, you risk ending up with a depreciating asset if Eller is to have another sub-30 point season next year. The lure of his being a first round choice from five years ago will quickly wear off.

3) Move Desharnais to the Wing

Of course, the Canadiens can keep both Eller and Desharnais by shifting one to another position. By playing DD on the wing, the Canadiens would minimize his defensive responsibilities - a weaker area in his overall game. However, he'd also be responsible for winning more battles along the boards, which may be a struggle given his diminutive frame (but not for a lack of heart). The bigger issue, though, would be who to play him with. As much as Desharnais deserves plenty of credit in his own right, a significant portion of his production this season has been aided by being flanked by the team's twin offensive towers in Erik Cole and Max Pacioretty. It is unlikely that the Habs would put him on the wing of a rookie, and playing Tomas Plekanec would make for an awfully small unit. That leaves Eller's wing which, if used as a third trio completed by a bigger body like Rene Bourque (though that would mean 3 left shots) or a defensively-responsible guy like Travis Moen (again three lefties) or Louis Leblanc (could be a fit!), might actually be effective. Write that down, Habs brass, who undoubtedly reads this very site carefully on a daily basis. One issue is the loss of Desharnais's 50% in the face-off dot on a club that struggles in that area, in favour of Eller's meager 45.7%. So let's keep looking...

4) Move Eller to the Wing

Eller was tested as a top 6 winger right from his early days in Montreal without major success. Could it be time to give him another shot? He is weak on the draw, but strong enough to handle his own along the boards and tends to position himself more off to the side than directly in front of the net. Playing the wing might give him fewer opportunities to work his stickhandling magic through the neutral zone, but it may give him more of a chance to get off his quick release and/or improve his finish-ability around the net. To this end, perhaps playing him on Desharnais's side would allow the freeing of Pacioretty and/or Cole to play with other forwards in the top 6. If Eller proves his worthiness, he could be tried on a top unit alongside a Tomas Plekanec to give the team more flexibility down its depth chart as well. This seems like inevitably the "safest" best solution for the team if they manage to land a true #1 center.

So there you have it. Which option sounds best to you if a spot is named for Mikhail Grigorenko next October? Or perhaps you have another idea in mind? Discuss away!

Why a Tanked Season Will Be Worth It

Habs fans, meet Mikhail Grigorenko. If things continue as they should and have been progressing, you will get to know this young man quite intimately beginning in June.

Grigorenko is a 17-year old Russian-born forward who is rather unanimously expected to go number two overall behind countryman Nail Yakupov at this summer's NHL Entry Draft. We'll start with the stats.

In his first WJC this Christmas, despite his young age, Grigorenko produced 2 goals and 5 points in 6 contests on the strong Russian squad. A year ago, at the U18 event, he had an incredible 18 points in just 7 games.

But tournaments are a small sample size. His play has carried over to this season, where he is a member of the Patrick Roy-coached Quebec Remparts. In his Q rookie season, Grigorenko has scored 28 goals and 64 points in 41 games. This puts him 10th in QMJHL scoring, despite having played fewer games than everyone above him, and tops amongst the league's first year players.

I've talked quite a bit about the need for a premiere, big, first line centre to revamp / restructure the forward group in Montreal. Of course, as I and many others are quick to reply, those don't grow on trees. Even if a Ryan Getzlaf or Eric Staal is to become available some time this summer, the cost of acquiring such a player is likely to be hugely prohibitive. So how else can you fill the need? The draft of course. And finishing 10th in the East to draft 12th overall will not be enough to do it. A tanked season of finishing near the bottom of the league is what is required.

Did I mention Grigorenko is 6'2" and has played mostly centre this season? A centre line of Grigorenko, Desharnais/Plekanec, Eller, and a big and tough 4th liner would go a long way towards changing this team's identity. Understand that if Montreal can secure the 2nd overall pick, we're not talking about a player who could help the team out some 3-5 years down the road. We're talking about a guy who will be ready to step right in for the 2012-13 season and be a big-time contributor. Now it won't be easy. It means being happy when the team drops a game, or when those around win, which takes some getting used to. It still pains me to have mixed feelings when the Habs blow a lead like they did last night to the New Jersey Devils. But think greater good. The playoffs are out of reach. Forego the immediate gratification and short-term satisfaction of a single Habs win in order to add a piece in the near term that could and should drop the wait time for the next Stanley Cup parade in Montreal significantly. Accept some pain right now for the ability to watch a young star - a legitimate offensive gamebreaking superstar like the team hasn't had in many, many years - on a nightly basis beginning in a few months.

Of course, it isn't so easy. The Canadiens have shown the occasional ability to win games against all odds, and it will need to happen even less frequently if they want to be certain not to pass too many other teams.

It seems Yakupov, a smaller right winger, can already start looking for a home in the greater Columbus area. But there is quite a log-jam, or race for the bottom if you will, amongst the other teams whose seasons didn't go according to plan. The young Edmonton Oilers appear destined to get a little scarier this June, though with a number of stud d-men available outside the top 2, they are more likely to go that route given a roster including the likes of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall, and Jordan Eberle. The Anaheim Ducks have an older team that is failing to produce, leading to some speculation they may even look to trade a core player like Ryan Getzlaf or Bobby Ryan. Such a move would help them tank if their goal is to rebuild around a guy like Grigorenko. The Carolina Hurricanes are also looking for help throughout their roster, though they don't have tremendous need at center. This is important because even if Montreal doesn't naturally finish with the 2nd overall pick, they may be able to trade up from a top 5 or 6 selection by sweetening the pot with some other assets if the team in question isn't all-in on Grigorenko.

So what must happen now for the team to "tank?" Understand that we're not talking about purposely throwing games. Nor are we talking about playing a line of Aaron Palushaj, Andreas Engqvist, and Mike Blunden for 20 minutes a night. But we are talking about moving some non-essential veteran players for picks and prospects between now and the end of the month. Think Hal Gill, Travis Moen, Yannick Weber, Petteri Nokelainen, Andrei Kostitsyn, Tomas Kaberle, and maybe one of Tomas Plekanec or David Desharnais. Such moves don't guarantee anything, of course, but the Canadiens lack AHL depth this season, so replacing these guys with some unready bodies should push the team towards the league's basement. The plan comes full circle in the sense that some of the assets acquired for dealing these players could help the team jump from a 5th overall to 2nd.

Hang in there, Habs fans. There are some solid pieces in place in Montreal, and better days are ahead. Is it worth the suffering? Patrick Roy, for one, seems to think that a player of Griogrenko's calibre will make up for all the hard times gone through to pick him up. All that will be left will be to convince Grigorenko to take #13 in Montreal to allow us to simply change the nameplate on all of our Mike Cammalleri jerseys.