Previewing the NHL's Draft Lottery

Tonight at 8 PM EST, live on TSN, the final draft order for the NHL's non-playoff clubs will be determined.  Previously, I've covered the rules of the Draft Lottery, as well as gone over the Canadiens' odds, but today we'll look at a couple of scenarios.

To begin, here is a table created by James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail showing where each team could draft, and the odds of each spot:

If we combine this with a look at the final Central Scouting Service prospect rankings released yesterday, we get an idea of the kind of players expected to be available to each team.

 Nail Yakupov is far and away the consensus top player in this year's draft, and thus the reason why many clubs have major fingers crossed to win tonight's lottery.  While there are many other prospects with a lot of potential, Yakupov - at least at forward - looks like the only "sure bet."  Mikhail Grigorenko is often accused of being a lazy player, Alex Galchenyuk has questions around him due to his lost season with a knee injury, and Filip Forsberg's offensive upside is also unclear.

So what of our beloved Habs?  If the 14.2% chance of the team moving up comes to pass - and the third-to-last place team has won the lottery three times since 2000 - then the team should consider no options other than drafting Yakupov.  No, he doesn't bring the size the Canadiens are ideally looking for at 5'11", 190 lbs.  Grigorenko and Galchenyuk offer more size down the middle, a weakness in the Canadiens organization, and Forsberg is a bigger presence at wing.  But Yakupov offers what the Habs truly need most - gamebreaking superstar talent.  Playing on, for example, a line with Tomas Plekanec and Brian Gionta, he could alleviate the team's lack of 2nd line scoring, and allow the club to play Rene Bourque (assuming he's back) outside of a top 6 role.  Yakupov is in fact perhaps the only forward from this year's draft who should be a sure-thing to make the jump straight to the NHL next season.  All others will be a wait-and-see process going into training camp.

But let's say Montreal doesn't win the draft lottery.  Let's say the Blue Jackets win it, the most likely of scenarios.  If we assume that the Canadiens really want to draft a forward, then arguably Mikhail Grigorenko should be their man.  This shouldn't be a problem, as with the 2nd pick, the Edmonton Oilers are very likely to take a defenseman.  However, it doesn't mean the Habs are out of the woods.  There are a number of top-notch d-men the Oilers can choose from including Ryan Murray, Morgan Rielly, Cody Ceci, Olli Maatta, Jacob Trouba, Griffin Reinhart, and Matt Dumba.  Given this, if the Oilers don't see one of these players as far and away superior to the others, it is possible they trade with a team in the 4-6 range that wants Girgorenko in order to pick up some additional assets.  Montreal, at third overall, would thus be left in the dust, having to choose from one of the other remaining players.  Thus, even if the team remains at number three, there is reason to hold your breath until Trevor Timmins descends from the podium with the pick announced.

As for the lottery itself, what should Habs fans want and not want to see?  The top 5 picks will be unveiled on TSN beggining from #5, currently held by the Toronto Maple Leafs.  When the fifth pick is revealed, Habs fans should hope to still see a Leafs logo in that spot, as the last thing the team wants is for 8.1% chance of Toronto winning the lottery to come to pass.  If the logo revealed is Winnipeg's, it would mean that they won the draft lottery, dropping Toronto to 6 and the other top 4 remaining the same.  If the logo revealed is the New York Islanders, that means someone in the 4 slots below New York won the lottery and jumped up (possibly - but not necessarily - being Toronto).

If pick #5 remains Toronto, the only way the Canadiens could draft 4th is if the New York Islanders won the lottery, so that's what Montreal in the four slot would reveal.  If pick #5 has become the Islanders, then Montreal would be locked in the #4 slot unless it is Carolina who won the lottery, so that would be the logo Habs fans should hope to see in the envelope.

If picks 5 and 4 remain Toronto and the Islanders, the third pick would become the moment of truth for the Canadiens.  At this point, the winner of the draft lottery would have to be either Columbus, Edmonton, Montreal, or a team with the 10th to 14th best odds (who could not move into the top 5).  If the Oilers logo is in the envelope, fans can celebrate - Montreal will have won the lottery.  Otherwise, the Canadiens logo will be in there.  Of course, if the Habs weren't revealed as the fourth pick, regardless of what else happened in envelopes 5 and 4, they have to be in this one or the first pick one, as those are the only spots the system enables them to pick.  Thus, the latest that Habs fans could find out their fate is with the opening of this one.

So perform your rituals and ready your lucky charms, Habs fans.  Tonight is a big night in setting the stage for the evening of June 22nd when teams will announce their first round selections in Pittsburgh.  For one last time - for now - GO HABS GO!

Your Canadiens for November 17, 2011

Some updates prior to the Canadiens engaging in the second half of back-to-back games, this one taking place in New York against the Islanders.

- Peter Budaj gets the call in goal for Montreal. With Carey Price recording a shutout last night, and there being a third game in four nights on Saturday, this seems like a good call. Budaj was solid enough in his last start, and Price will be back in goal to face the Rangers.

- Both Hal Gill and Jaroslav Spacek will be out again for tonight. This means Frederic St. Denis will play his second NHL game after a decent debut last night.

UPDATE: According to Renaud Lavoie this evening, Gill's illness has him in the hospital. Hopefully it's nothing too serious and I wish him the speediest and fullest of recoveries! It means, though, that he'll likely be out for Saturday's game as well.

- Evgeni Nabokov will get the start for New York against the Habs. Nabokov has played 7 games for the Isles, with a 1-5 record, 2.89 GAA, and .910 save percentage. Kyle Okposo, who is having a tough start to the season and has fallen out of favour somewhat in Long Island, will be a healthy scratch for a second consecutive game.

- There will be 4 Swiss-born players in tonight's game: Nino Niederreiter and former Canadien Mark Streit for the Isles, and of course Yannick Weber and Raphael Diaz for Montreal.

- The Abbotsford Heat have lent 21-year old center Mitch Wahl to the Hamilton Bulldogs for the remainder of this season. Wahl, a 2nd round draft pick of the Calgary Flames in 2008, missed all but 17 games in his AHL rookie season last year due to injury, and put up 5 points. The 6'0", 200 lbs California native spent 5 games in the ECHL this year where he scored 5 goals and 7 points, but has no points in 5 games at the AHL level. Note that even though Wahl will play for the 'Dogs, he remains Flames property and could not be called up by the Canadiens. For more on Wahl, see here:

http://www.abbynews.com/sports/heat/news/134075238.html

- The Canadiens organization mourns the loss of former long-time trainer Eddy Palchak, who passed away last night. Rest in peace Eddy. See a nice tribute to him here:

http://www.hockeyinsideout.com/news/canadiens-hockey-mourn-passing-of-eddy-palchak

- On a happier note, Mike Cammalleri Tweeted YouTube links to the latest series of BioSteel web ads. Here are the two that star the Habs' sniper.

- The CHL yesterday posted its latest edition of the Top 10 clubs CHL-wide:

http://www.lhjmq.qc.ca/article/la-lch-d-voile-le-classement-du-top-10-bmo-mastercard-de-la-lch/109464

You'll notice the teams of many Canadiens' junior prospects included:

#1 - Jarred Tinordi's London Knights

#2 - Nathan Beaulieu's Saint John Sea Dogs

#6 - Darren Dietz's Saskatoon Blades

#9 - Michael Bournival's Shawinigan Cataractes

Each of the four is a significant contributor to their team's success.

And speaking of Beaulieu, you can contribute to his Movember campaign and check out pics of him with a "stache" here:

http://ca.movember.com/mospace/2363422/

- Former Montreal Canadiens defenseman Stephane Quintal has been hired by the National Hockey League to assist Brendan Shanahan with league player discipline issues.

http://fr.canoe.ca/sports/nouvelles/hockey/lnh/archives/2011/11/20111117-121407.html

- On the subject of discipline, it was finally made official today that Zdeno Chara will face no charges from Montreal police for his hit on Max Pacioretty.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/nhl/story/2011-11-17/no-charge-for-chara/51270586/1

2011/12 NHL Preview - Atlantic Division

Last week, we covered 4 of the 6 NHL divisions in our season previews (Southeast, Northwest, Central, Pacific), so today we continue on with the Atlantic, before wrapping up with the Northeast tomorrow and then finally our overall predictions on Wednesday.

NEW JERSEY DEVILS

Projected depth chart / lines:

Patrik Elias - Travis Zajac - Zach Parise

Ilya Kovalchuk - Dainius Zubrus - Nick Palmieri

Mattias Tedenby - Jacob Josefson - David Clarkson

Eric Boulton - Dave Steckel - Cam Janssen

Henrik Tallinder - Anton Volchenkov

Andy Greene - Adam Larsson

Bryce Salvador - Matt Corrente

Martin Brodeur

Johan Hedberg

The Devils were among the hottest teams in the league over the second half of last season but it wasn't enough to overcome a disastrous start. While the return this season of star forward Zach Parise from injury will be a boost to the club's chances, another year of wear on Martin Brodeur can't help. Still, it could be an exciting year offensively for New Jersey with the emergence of three young forwards who should earn full-time roles in Nick Palmieri, Jacob Josefson, and Mattias Tedenby. All three have the potential to be top 6 contributors and now that all have gotten their feet wet in the big league, they will look to improve on last year's point totals. After signing his huge long-term contract, Ilya Kovalchuk was hot and cold last season, finishing below a point-per-game for the first time since 2006-07. Given that they'll be on the hook for his deal for many years, N.J. will need to find a way to get the best out of him quickly.

On D, the big addition will be first round selection Adam Larsson who should be expected to earn a spot right out of training camp. The 6'3" Swede was a real gift to the Devils at 4th overall as the top 3 teams opted to take forwards. If Brodeur isn't getting any younger, he will at least be well protected by the team's top shutdown pair of Anton Volchenkov and Henrik Tallinder, provided the former can stay healthy after playing just 57 games last year.

Clearly this is Brodeur's team, but at least Johan Hedberg is capable of providing the Quebec native with more rest than his career averages would suggest. Hedberg played 34 games for the Devils last year, and 47 for the Atlanta Thrashers the year before, with numbers that compare

YourCanadiens Verdict: Bubble playoff team.

NEW YORK ISLANDERS

Projected depth chart / lines:

Matt Moulson - John Tavares - Michael Grabner

Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau - Brian Rolston - Blake Comeau

Josh Bailey - Frans Nielsen - Nino Niederreiter

Matt Martin - Marty Reasoner - Trevor Gilles

Mark Streit - Milan Jurcina

Mark Eaton - Travis Hamonic

Ty Wishart - Andrew McDonald

Rick DiPietro

Al Montoya

The Islanders are still in rebuild mode and will likely only begin to look competitive in time for the arrival of 2011 first round pick Ryan Strome. There are some pieces in place, however, as Michael Grabner unexpectedly showed tremendous progress last season, and Matt Moulson topped the 30 goal mark for the second straight year. If Brian Rolston shows to have any gas left in the tank, he will be a good veteran presence to take some pressure off the young John Tavares and Frans Nielsen (also coming off a career year) at the center position. If players like Nielsen and Grabner pleasantly surprised, Josh Bailey was a disappointment, scoring just 28 points in 70 games despite having 17 points in 11 AHL games. Turning 22 in October, the days remaining for Bailey to establish himself as an offensive threat are getting shorter. If Bailey can't do it, though, look for a breakout from rookie Nino Niederreiter who got a 9 game trial last year before putting up 70 points in 55 WHL games.

On the back end, Mark Streit will return after missing all of last season with injury and - poolies be aware! - 50+ points is not an unreasonably expectation from the club's #1 d-man and PP quarterback. The rest of the defense still needs lots of work though, with the team looking to 21-year old Travis Hamonic, 23-year old Ty Wishart, and eventually - possibly even as soon as this year - 20-year old Calvin de Haan to form a new up-and-coming core.

Starter Rick DiPietro has played a total of 39 games over the last 3 seasons combined and given that he is under contract until 2021, fans around the league tend to enjoy mockingly following his injuries. Al Montoya was a nice story for the Islanders last year, seen as a bust since being taken 6th overall back in 2004, but posting a strong .921 save percentage and 2.39 GAA in 21 games, his only NHL action to date outside of 5 games with Phoenix in 2008-09. There is a big question mark in goal with regards to the status of Evgeni Nabokov, who the Islanders plucked off waivers after the Detroit Red Wings tried to sign him from Europe during last season. Nabokov initially refused to report, but there has been word over the summer that he expects to be at camp this month.

YourCanadiens Verdict: Out of the playoffs.

NEW YORK RANGERS

Projected depth chart / lines:

Sean Avery - Brad Richards - Marian Gaborik

Brandon Dubinsky - Derek Stepan - Ryan Callahan

Mats Zuccarello-Aasen - Artem Anisimov - Ruslan Fedotenko

Wojtek Wolski - Brian Boyle - Mike Rupp

Marc Staal - Daniel Girardi

Mike Sauer - Ryan McDonagh

Tim Erixon - Michael Del Zotto

Henrik Lundqvist

Martin Biron

To no one's surprise, the Rangers landed the big fish on the UFA market this summer, signing Brad Richards to a long term deal until the summer of 2020. With Richards in the mix, New York has a deep group of talented forwards buoyed by the young Derek Stepan and Mats Zuccarello-Aasen, both of whom made strong NHL debuts last season. Marian Gaborik missed 20 games last season and his production trailed off significantly from his first with New York, so he'll look to bounce back playing with a new center. The team's bottom 6 presents an impressive mix of size and skill with the addition of Mike Rupp giving Sean Avery some breathing room to perform his pest antics that get opposing teams off their game. Offensively, Glenn Sather has done a nice job in assembling a mix of young and old, talent and strength, for a nicely balanced group of forwards.

There are some questions on defense though, given the age of the group likely to start the season with the club. Though still only 24, Marc Staal can't be considered a green rookie, emerging as a true top pairing stalwart. When Michael del Zotto regressed in his play last season, it was former Habs' draft choice Ryan McDonagh who stole his spot as a regular contributor by year's end. In addition to those two, this season should mark the debut of Tim Erixon - a Calgary Flames first round pick in 2009 - in the NHL after signing to come over from Sweden. The 20-year old is a two-way d-man who will battle with Steve Eminger and Pavel Valentenko for a spot in the top 6.

Henrik Lundqvist is coming off another excellent season which saw him lead the league with 11 shutouts despite playing fewer than 70 games for the first time since his rookie season in 2005-06. This enabled him to set a career high for save percentage with a .923, so expect back-up Martin Biron to get enough action to keep Hank fresh.

YourCanadiens Verdict: Bubble playoff team.

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

Projected depth chart / lines:

James van Rimesdyk - Claude Giroux - Daniel Briere

Jakub Voracek - Brayden Schenn - Jaromir Jagr

Wayne Simmonds - Maxime Talbot - Scott Hartnell

Andreas Nodl - Blair Betts - Jody Shelley

Chris Pronger - Matt Carle

Kimmo Timonen - Andrej Meszaros

Braydon Coburn - Andreas Lilja

Ilya Bryzgalov

Sergei Bobrovsky

We previously went over this summer's remodeling of the Flyers and many in the hockey world are eager to see how it pans out. Replacing all of Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Ville Leino, and Kris Versteeg up front will be no easy task, but youngsters Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, and Wayne Simmonds are no slouches. Voracek's offense may end up equaling Carter's alone, while Schenn begins his rookie season in the NHL after putting up 7 points in 7 regular season AHL games and adding 4 points in 5 playoff games at the end of last year. If Simmonds does play on our projected third line with Maxime Talbot and Scott Hartnell, they will be a trio as tough to play against as perhaps any in the league. After much talking this summer, it will be fun to see if Jaromir Jagr truly does have what it takes to be productive in the National League or if he is limited to a minor powerplay specialist role.

It appears Chris Pronger's injury problems are ongoing as he may not be ready for training camp. The Flyers' D looks far better with him in the line-up eating up minutes and covering for a softer partner. Still with the always underrated Kimmo Timonen, who, despite his offense slowing down with age, remains a very solid veteran, Philadelphia's top 4 is top tier in calibre and cements them as a conference contender.

But even if the D misses Pronger for any period of time, they've addressed what has long been their Achilles heel by bringing in Ilya Bryzgalov as their starter. Bryzgalov has been out of the spotlight spending the last four years in Phoenix, but put up a save percentage of .920 or better in three of those four years despite a young and inexperienced team in front of him. The only question will be how he holds up in the post-season where his experience and success are far less. As a positive, he should be a great mentor to fellow Russian Sergei Bobrovsky, but with Bryzgalov signed until 2020 it's most likely the Bob's next real shot will be with another team.

YourCanadiens Verdict: Conference contender.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

Projected depth chart / lines:

Chris Kunitz - Sidney Crosby - James Neal

Tyler Kennedy - Evgeni Malkin - Steve Sullivan

Matt Cooke - Jordan Staal - Pascal Dupuis

Craig Adams - Dustin Jeffrey - Arron Asham

Kris Letang - Brooks Orpik

Paul Martin - Zbynek Michalek

Matt Niskanen - Ben Lovejoy

Marc-Andre Fleury

Brent Johnson

The Pens were rather quiet this summer while sitting and anxiously waiting for updates on the health of Sidney Crosby. Depending on who you believe, it looks at best that he'll miss the start of the season, and at worst that he perhaps will never play again. His absence is a huge loss for the Penguins, but also one for the league in general as he represents a generational talent. Still, Pittsburgh silenced many doubters last season by maintaining their Eastern Conference positioning despite having to play without both Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, so getting just one of the two stars back is still a major addition. After trading for James Neal last year, the signing of Steve Sullivan finally provides the team with enough depth at wing to go along with their trio of stud centermen and Sullivan is a darkhorse fantasy pool option for a strong bounce back performance.

Last summer's additions of Paul Martin and Zbynek Michalek went a long way to stabilizing the Penguins' back end, and if Kris Letang can repeat or improve upon last season's performance, he may be on the verge of becoming a Norris candidate calibre blueliner.

Personally, I'm not the biggest Marc-Andre Fleury fan but he is a starter of sufficient quality to take this team to the promised land if they get healthy contributions from all of their forwards. He's a fine goalie when you're trying to win games 6-3 as opposed to 1-0 and will benefit from playing behind some strong defensive defensemen.

YourCanadiens Verdict: Solid playoff team.

Tomorrow we wrap up our divisional previews with the Northeast before getting into specific predictions league-wide on Wednesday!