Not Your Manic Monday

What a weekend it was, Habs fans. Did they have you believing again? Even the most doubting of tanquists like myself has to admit that last week's 4-game win streak had me thinking that maybe... just maybe... there was a sudden reason to cling to hope. Maybe a truly miraculous run was still possible. Maybe this team could play like all hoped they would coming into the year.

The 5-0 win Saturday over the arch-rival Toronto Maple Leafs felt good. Even in my biggest tanker moments, I still wanted nothing more than to watch the team contribute to extending Toronto's playoff dry spell, hoping that the Canadiens would lose every night except when facing the Leafs. For a re-tooler, then, April 7th's season finale has the potential to be this season's equivalent of a 7th game of the Stanley Cup finals.

The team's prospects - not that they've been the problem whatsoever this year - also got in on the act to put fans in a good mood, if only for a brief stint. Brendan Gallagher's weekend consisted of a goal and 2 assists, with the marker tying him for all-time leading scorer in Vancouver Giants history. Michael Bournival put up a goal and 3 helpers in his 2-game set, while teammate Morgan Ellis's 2 assists went along with a +5 rating. Nathan Beaulieu's 4 assists this weekend have him on an impressive 4-game, 8-point streak. But perhaps most impressive was Ryan White, who after only making his highly anticipated season debut last week, scored 4 goals and an assist in 4 AHL conditioning stint games.

I hope you enjoyed it while it lasted, Canadiens faithful, as instead of a manic Monday that would have refilled the bandwagon with what should have been an "easier" win over the cellar dweller Carolina Hurricanes, we all came crashing back to reality with a hard thud. Blame Carey Price for not having his best game of the year if you'd like. Blame Andrei Kostitsyn for pulling his famous disappearing act. Blame Scott Gomez for... oh wait, you already blame him. Blame Pierre Gauthier for sending Jaroslav Spacek (1 goal, -1) to Carolina for Tomas Kaberle (1 assist, -2). Blame Montreal's powerplay for - after finally showing life with 2 goals in the 2nd period - allowing a backbreaking Eric Staal shorthanded tally early in the third. Blame whoever you want. Had anything really changed?

Following another patented 2011-12 Montreal Canadien Third Period Collapse™ (MCTPC), despite last week's heroics, the Habs awake today still 2 games below .500, 7 points out of a playoff position, and though currently in 11th place, just one point up on each of the 12th, 13th, and 14th place clubs in the East, each of whom hold two games in hand on them. In fact, although last week's run allowed the hopeless romantic and diehard fan in me to live some highs, my rational tanker identity for this season knows that dropping last night's decision to the Hurricanes was a huge step towards hopefully securing a high pick. The loss puts Montreal just 2 points up on 15th place Carolina, with both teams having played 57 of 82.

Now, I hear what you're saying. I'm giving up too easily. After a good week, just one bad game and I'm back to doom and gloom. But let's take it for what it was: a good week for what has been a poor team for most of the season. To make the playoffs, the team would likely need something like a 20-5-0 record here on out, and while it is true that it could be achieved by repeating the past week's 4-1 record five times over, I would say the odds of that occurring are about as likely as you winning the team's season ticket Lotricolore charity lottery with a single entry. "But... But... The St. Louis Cardinals!" you rebut. Yes, the Cardinals overcame a substantial deficit in turning a tough season around and going on to win a championship, but baseball isn't hockey. First of all, the baseball season is virtually double the length of the NHL's, meaning there is significantly more time to make up lost ground. Even still, you might argue, the Cards sat 10 and a half games back of the Atlanta Braves with just 32 games to play in their season. Well that leads to a second point, which is that even with exceptional play, it took a monumental collapse of epic proportions on the part of the Braves for St. Louis to get in. Still, there is no reason why such a bad spell couldn't befall any number of playoff hopefuls in the East, allowing the Habs to leapfrog them. Then what makes me believe the playoffs are such an impossibility? The most compelling difference between the NHL and MLB standings, being the existence of hockey's 3-point games. Three point nights can be your friend when you're in 7th or 8th spot and trying to hold on, collecting loser points here and there, but when you're in a hole, the more points that get spread among the teams you are battling with, the bigger the hill becomes to climb.

This is why I maintain that the plan needs to remain on course. A few happiness-inducing wins right now for a 10th or 11th place finish aren't in anyone's best interest. The main goal for all is to put together a Stanley Cup winning team, and the best way for the team to help itself towards that end will be to add a premiere franchise player courtesy of a top 5 draft selection.

So let's sat back and enjoy the show to the trade deadline and beyond. The call-up of Ryan White (and extremely odd 24 hours of Ian Schultz) in preparation for Wednesday night's dance with the Boston Bruins should at least keep fans entertained. Beat the Leafs, beat up the Bruins, and add a Mikhail Grigorenko or other top end talent? That's plenty to satiate my 2011-12 Hab needs.

[apologies for lack of updates Thursday, Friday, and Monday; as I Tweeted from this site's account, I was in Portugal and did not have sufficient time to prep pieces]

Why a Tanked Season Will Be Worth It

Habs fans, meet Mikhail Grigorenko. If things continue as they should and have been progressing, you will get to know this young man quite intimately beginning in June.

Grigorenko is a 17-year old Russian-born forward who is rather unanimously expected to go number two overall behind countryman Nail Yakupov at this summer's NHL Entry Draft. We'll start with the stats.

In his first WJC this Christmas, despite his young age, Grigorenko produced 2 goals and 5 points in 6 contests on the strong Russian squad. A year ago, at the U18 event, he had an incredible 18 points in just 7 games.

But tournaments are a small sample size. His play has carried over to this season, where he is a member of the Patrick Roy-coached Quebec Remparts. In his Q rookie season, Grigorenko has scored 28 goals and 64 points in 41 games. This puts him 10th in QMJHL scoring, despite having played fewer games than everyone above him, and tops amongst the league's first year players.

I've talked quite a bit about the need for a premiere, big, first line centre to revamp / restructure the forward group in Montreal. Of course, as I and many others are quick to reply, those don't grow on trees. Even if a Ryan Getzlaf or Eric Staal is to become available some time this summer, the cost of acquiring such a player is likely to be hugely prohibitive. So how else can you fill the need? The draft of course. And finishing 10th in the East to draft 12th overall will not be enough to do it. A tanked season of finishing near the bottom of the league is what is required.

Did I mention Grigorenko is 6'2" and has played mostly centre this season? A centre line of Grigorenko, Desharnais/Plekanec, Eller, and a big and tough 4th liner would go a long way towards changing this team's identity. Understand that if Montreal can secure the 2nd overall pick, we're not talking about a player who could help the team out some 3-5 years down the road. We're talking about a guy who will be ready to step right in for the 2012-13 season and be a big-time contributor. Now it won't be easy. It means being happy when the team drops a game, or when those around win, which takes some getting used to. It still pains me to have mixed feelings when the Habs blow a lead like they did last night to the New Jersey Devils. But think greater good. The playoffs are out of reach. Forego the immediate gratification and short-term satisfaction of a single Habs win in order to add a piece in the near term that could and should drop the wait time for the next Stanley Cup parade in Montreal significantly. Accept some pain right now for the ability to watch a young star - a legitimate offensive gamebreaking superstar like the team hasn't had in many, many years - on a nightly basis beginning in a few months.

Of course, it isn't so easy. The Canadiens have shown the occasional ability to win games against all odds, and it will need to happen even less frequently if they want to be certain not to pass too many other teams.

It seems Yakupov, a smaller right winger, can already start looking for a home in the greater Columbus area. But there is quite a log-jam, or race for the bottom if you will, amongst the other teams whose seasons didn't go according to plan. The young Edmonton Oilers appear destined to get a little scarier this June, though with a number of stud d-men available outside the top 2, they are more likely to go that route given a roster including the likes of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall, and Jordan Eberle. The Anaheim Ducks have an older team that is failing to produce, leading to some speculation they may even look to trade a core player like Ryan Getzlaf or Bobby Ryan. Such a move would help them tank if their goal is to rebuild around a guy like Grigorenko. The Carolina Hurricanes are also looking for help throughout their roster, though they don't have tremendous need at center. This is important because even if Montreal doesn't naturally finish with the 2nd overall pick, they may be able to trade up from a top 5 or 6 selection by sweetening the pot with some other assets if the team in question isn't all-in on Grigorenko.

So what must happen now for the team to "tank?" Understand that we're not talking about purposely throwing games. Nor are we talking about playing a line of Aaron Palushaj, Andreas Engqvist, and Mike Blunden for 20 minutes a night. But we are talking about moving some non-essential veteran players for picks and prospects between now and the end of the month. Think Hal Gill, Travis Moen, Yannick Weber, Petteri Nokelainen, Andrei Kostitsyn, Tomas Kaberle, and maybe one of Tomas Plekanec or David Desharnais. Such moves don't guarantee anything, of course, but the Canadiens lack AHL depth this season, so replacing these guys with some unready bodies should push the team towards the league's basement. The plan comes full circle in the sense that some of the assets acquired for dealing these players could help the team jump from a 5th overall to 2nd.

Hang in there, Habs fans. There are some solid pieces in place in Montreal, and better days are ahead. Is it worth the suffering? Patrick Roy, for one, seems to think that a player of Griogrenko's calibre will make up for all the hard times gone through to pick him up. All that will be left will be to convince Grigorenko to take #13 in Montreal to allow us to simply change the nameplate on all of our Mike Cammalleri jerseys.

We'll Call It a Transition Year

Just yesterday I asked whether it was too late for the Canadiens to start a surge that would put them back into playoff contention. We may in fact never know whether it would have been too late or not; what we found out - last night at least - is that it was far too little. A goal on a great individual effort by Max Pacioretty was the only offense the team could muster (despite several great chances from notably Erik Cole), spoiling an all-star worthy effort from goaltender Carey Price against a team the Habs could not afford to lose to. It was a quick and hard slap back to reality following the high of that unpredictable 7-2 romp over the Detroit Red Wings prior to the break.

Montreal now ranks 13th in the East (tied in points with 12th place Tampa Bay and 14th place Buffalo), just two points ahead of 15th place Carolina (though with 2 games in hand). Worse, the team is 9 points back of current 8th place Toronto, and 8 back of 9th place Florida who holds a couple of games in hand on both the Canadiens and Leafs. Ladies and gentlemen, it's time to tank.

My wishes... nay, demands... from hear on out are quite simple really. The Habs should lose the vast majority of their remaining games, save those against the Maple Leafs. For there would be little worse than to say the Canadiens finish outside the playoffs with Toronto in the top 8. They should tumble down the Eastern Conference standings, and even if finishing below Columbus is unrealistic at this point, earn a top 5 overall draft selection. To do so, Pierre Gauthier must think only about next season and beyond. There should be no immediate help trades, and if he can find a taker to undo the last immediate help move he made (acquiring Tomas Kaberle), the defenseman's contract should be shipped out. Further, if Gauthier thinks Andrei Kostitsyn and/or Travis Moen are part of the longer-term solution in Montreal, then they need to be re-signed within the next 3 weeks. If not, keeping them to help down the stretch only to lose them for nothing this summer is unacceptable horrendous asset management from a team going nowhere this season. Similarly, Hal Gill - who should not be considered a part of any future in Montreal, as good of a leader as he is - needs to be moved for the best offer by the deadline. If anyone has interest in Chris Campoli, he should go as well.

But that's not all. Gauthier has had plenty of time to observe his players and evaluate available talent around the league. If there is interest in Yannick Weber or Petteri Nokelainen, Gauthier needs to get what he can. A good offer for David Desharnais or Tomas Plekanec should even be considered, while searching for as many avenues as possible to upgrade the center position.

Moreover, and perhaps more importantly, my wish is for an overhauling of the front office this summer, prior to the entry draft. I have no problem with Trevor Timmins, though I'd love to see the scouting staff beefed up with others in supporting roles. The Gauthier / Bob Gainey regime, however, needs to end. They've had long enough to build a winner, and at this point appear to be just spinning their tires and flushing Geoff Molson's money. A new, fresh perspective, along with a hot shot top prospect and some refreshed talent should be enough to supplement the existing core and to give this group a chance at a rebound next season. Identify the core as below, do your best to upgrade the other spots while shedding some dead wood, and move forward, cutting your losses.

Max Pacioretty - ___ - Erik Cole

___ - ___ - ___

Rene Bourque - Lars Eller - ___

___ - ___ - Ryan White

Andrei Markov - Josh Gorges

___ - P.K. Subban

Alexei Emelin - ___

Carey Price

___

(this is not to say that none of the blanks can be filled internally; it's more that these are the guys that would be part of my Cup-contending squad, while the others are replaceable / interchangeable)

Go Easy on Nathan Beaulieu

"Great moments are born from great opportunity." Herb Brooks famously gave this quote to the world during his pre-game speech to the American Miracle on Ice squad prior to their game against the Soviet Union (or so the movie tells us). The corollary, of course, is that horrible, embarrassing, scaring moments can also be born of great opportunities.

One such moment unfortunately occurred in last night's World Junior Championship semi-finals between Canada and Russia. Even more unfortunately, it involved a future Montreal Canadiens blueline stud. During the third period of what turned out to be an epic 20 minutes, with Canada down 5-1, Nathan Beaulieu loses the puck to a pressuring forward at the tail end of a Canadian powerplay, and then in trying to chop at the puck, chops the Russian's feet from under him instead, resulting in a delayed penalty call. Here's the video evidence (video begins at 3:31 mark):

The Canadians had played frustrated hockey for much of the night, shown in a late 2nd period undisciplined spear by Boone Jenner that cost him a 5 minute major and game misconduct, and a slamming of a stick on the boards by Jonathan Huberdeau after taking a penalty which forced him out of the game for 10 minutes. Beaulieu's giving up on the play and stopping to skate after taking the penalty is inexcusable. What happened there exactly? Of course he was upset. Perhaps he thought the whistle went. Perhaps he didn't realize there was a man coming out of the box which turned the play into a 2-on-1 (although it ended up being his man, the third skater, who tapped the puck in). Regardless, it was an error in a game that felt out of reach for most Canadians.

What happened after that was very nearly the most epic of comebacks, with Canada scoring 4 quick goals, leaving just that dreaded 6th marker to stand as the game-winner. Beaulieu, I'm sure, feels terrible about the play, not unlike Mikael Granlund of Team Finland who earlier in the day completely lost the puck on a shootout attempt on which he needed to score to keep his team alive.

The truth is, Habs fans, these things happen. Beaulieu at age 19 was considered one of the top 7 under 20 defensemen in the country to be selected to this team and performed reasonably well. The WJC is a huge stage, and though in the 7th d-man role Beaulieu didn't see that much ice, he looked smooth on the powerplay and confident with the puck. He took a few penalties that he will need to work out of his game, but overall showed lots of promise for the future, also demonstrating his toughness when returning to a game after taking a hard shot to the face.

This play will not define his career in any way, shape or form. Beaulieu, Montreal's first round pick last June, should sign a deal with the Habs some time between now and September and join the Hamilton Bulldogs in the Fall (given that he has a December birthday), moving up the ranks to become a pro. He won a Memorial Cup last year with the Saint John Sea Dogs, impressed at Canadiens training camp this Fall, could win a Bronze Medal at the WJC tomorrow, and then should have a good run at a second Memorial Cup on a stacked team before the season is done. Not a bad couple of seasons.

We just need to hope that the young man himself doesn't take this too hard and puts it out of his mind. Or, if anything, that he uses it as motivation not to give up on a play ever again. I'd imagine Stanley Cup-winning goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury doesn't go to sleep at night thinking about this moment any more:

So Nate, hang in there. Many great players go through tough adversity on their way to the top, so why should you be any different. If I'm Pierre Gauthier, I'd give Mr. Beaulieu's agent a call as soon as this tournament is over on Friday to talk about the inevitable contract. Might as well throw a positive the kid's way to help him get back on track. If you want to send Beaulieu some "Habs fans are all behind you!" thoughts of your own, you can Tweet at him at @n8theggr8.

13/10/11: Calgary 4, Montreal 1; defense? we talkin' bout defense?

Ouch. That's about the best word I have to describe the Montreal Canadiens getting burnt by the Calgary Flames in the home opener at the Bell Centre last night. In a game that resembled the inverse of the Winnipeg Jets' home opener last Sunday, the Habs had chances but severely lacked killer instinct when it came to finishing around the net. The bigger problem, however, was the team's play in its own end which ranged from passable to atrocious. They looked to take play in their own end about as seriously as Allen Iverson takes practice.

Start with P.K. Subban, whose -1 rating was actually flattering to the way he played on the night (just because 2 of Calgary's goals came on the powerplay). He was hesitant with the puck, was regularly caught out of position, and couldn't get anything going in the offensive zone. After weak performances in the first two road games, Subban needed to step it up at home, but instead delved deeper into his slump. He may not believe in the sophomore slump, but unless he gets back to the basics of his game, he's going to be hearing that term very frequently. Perhaps he should have been in bed early the night before rather than hitting the Montreal club scene.

Raphael Diaz and Alexei Emelin looked like the rookies that they are, though Emelin did have a couple of good sequences to go with the bad. Hal Gill looks slow as he usually does at this time of year. The problem is, he's being counted on to play on a top pairing with Subban. Anyone that thinks the Canadiens can be a contending - or even playoff - team with a Gill-Subban top duo is dreaming in technicolour right now. If Andrei Markov is indeed going to be out long-term, the blueline needs help and fast.

As for the forwards, Lars Eller was likely the team's best on this night - sad when you consider it was his first game back from injury. He showed good speed, nice hands, and a willingness to throw some good hits. I'm a big Eller fan, and he looks poised for a good season, but needs to improve his finish around the net. I've said it many times but will reaffirm it now: Eller plays the game like Peter Forsberg. Of course, I'm not saying he'll be anywhere near as good as the amazing talent Forsberg was, but he plays in the same style with many of the same moves. That's a huge compliment to the young Dane.

Tomas Plekanec was ok, except for at the point on the powerplay, where he looks completely out of place. When can this experiment end already? He has NEVER looked good there this year, going back to preseason and through the first 3 games. A Subban - Yannick Weber duo on the first unit clearly makes the most sense, with 2 shooters resembling the game the team played with Subban and James Wisniewski last year. Admittedly, this leaves the second unit thin, but you can focus more on the forwards in that case if the top unit fails to score. Play Diaz with Emelin or Gorges... at least ice one completely good unit instead of two dysfunctional ones. Plus, Plekanec was one of the team's best face-off men in the first 2 games, so I don't understand why you wouldn't have him taking the draw!

Erik Cole has been a huge disappointment in the first 3 games, and while I advocated for him to get more minutes on the top line, he certainly hasn't deserved them. Whereas in preseason he was effective at stealing the puck away from opposing players in their own end, through 3 games he himself has been a turnover machine in the Montreal end. He also seems to be knocked off the puck far too easily in the offensive end. He is at least throwing some hits, but the Canadiens aren't paying him to be a fourth line grinder; he's here to produce offensively, and he looks far from being capable of that at the moment. Hopefully it will just require an adjustment period to Jacques Martin's system and his new teammates.

Brian Gionta has looked off his game through the first three as well. The penalty calls against him last night were quite questionable, so I won't fault him there, but he needs to begin generating some offense. He has had little in the way of quality scoring chances, and when he does get them, he has frequently fanned on his shots or missed the net.

And lastly, the one we all know but are afraid to admit: Max Pacioretty isn't the same player as he was before the Zdeno Chara hit. Now I'm not saying he's playing particularly poorly; I love Max and he has shown his great combination of size, speed, and hands. But the player we saw last year charged the net fearlessly, kind of like Brendan Gallagher did in preseason. He would challenge any defender in his way in trying to go around or right through them. This season's Max - again, still a great skill player - stays to the outside far more frequently, opting to just take his shots from weaker angles rather than head into the danger/traffic zones. If he's going to realize his full potential, he will need to get over this shyness (which may happen in time anyway) and get back to playing like he did when he was perhaps the team's most dangerous forward.

So that's it for now. Carey Price will have to wait at least one more night to earn his 100th career win. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting it's time to panic. We're only 3 games into a very long and tough NHL season. However, with the degree of parity and number of quality clubs in the league's Eastern Conference, all the points lost now could and will come back to haunt Montreal in March and April. It is important for the team to start the year off strong, even if the hope is that they find their game midseason and carry that momentum into the playoffs. Pierre Gauthier has frequently shown he isn't afraid to make a move, so if the team doesn't wake up and play up to their potential in the near future, we should expect some changes to come.

UPDATE: - As an aside, anyone who considers themselves a Montreal Canadiens fan should read this article:

http://fr.canoe.ca/sports/nouvelles/hockey/lnh/archives/2011/10/20111014-034538.html

It's an interview in French with Patrice Brisebois. For those that don't speak la langue de Moliere, Brisebois talks about how big of an impact all of the booing and nasty comments had on him. He says he would often cry in his car after games and it made him isolate himself from others. It severely hurt his confidence and depressed him. Come on Habs fans, we're better than that. May no other player have to go through what Breeze did. We need to encourage our players to be at their best, and while the occasional boo from a paying customer is not a problem, the regular harassment of one of our own can do only harm.

06/10/11: Toronto 2, Montreal 0; false start for Habs

Rome wasn't built in a day. The Stanley Cup isn't awarded in October. Et cetera, et cetera. Just like "it's only preseason," these excuses do hold some weight, but at some point your Montreal Canadiens are going to have to start performing up to their potential.

If you didn't watch the game, don't be fooled by the boxscore. It may look like a hot James Reimer is the only thing that allowed his team, outshot 32-18, to win on opening night. The Canadiens may have technically had 32 shots on goal, but you'd be hardpressed to find more than a handful of quality scoring chances. Reimer was good, no doubt, but he was by no means forced to be anything more than just good.

The problems with the Canadiens in the opener were predictible. They looked much more like the 2-6-0 preseason team than just the team that kicked Tampa's butt in the final exhibition game. Montreal was "good" in the first period (there's that word again), but sloppy, unable to cash on a couple of in-close opportunities and often making one too many ill-advised pass despite having puck possession for most of the opening frame. But Montreal was only good. In reality, the reason the play was so one-sided is that the Leafs were terrible, causing turnover after giveaway after turnover. When Toronto started to play a little in the second, the tide turned just as quickly.

The defense, my biggest concern coming into the season, was weak. Josh Gorges and Hal Gill are effective shot blockers, but as a group, they lack major leaders and minute-eaters, or true physical/containment types. The team misses Roman Hamrlik and James Wisniewski right now, no doubt, and will continue to miss them until Andrei Markov is healthy enough to play. P.K. Subban did not have a good night, being one of those at fault on both Maple Leaf goals, and for a second time in his three games with the club, Chris Campoli was unable to finish the night, this time seemingly out for the next couple of weeks. That is the gamble you take in banking on a guy who hasn't had a full training camp. The groin is a major area of concern.

The bottom pairing of Raphael Diaz and Jaroslav Spacek frankly didn't look to be NHL caliber last night. You can blame it on Diaz's nerves, but Spacek is a veteran who was hoping to make amends for a poor year and was coming off a good preseason. He is certainly at high risk of losing his job as players get healthier.

Speaking of veterans coming off good preseasons and hoping to impress, Scott Gomez seemed to revert to the guy he was all of last season. It's only one game, of course, but the effort level and turnovers from Gomez were far from encouraging.

The team's powerplay was atrocious, much like it was throughout preseason, and the experiment of Tomas Plekanec at the point will and should be short-lived. The penalty kill, along with the play of Carey Price (though he didn't have the busiest of evenings) was one of the few bright spots on an anticlimactic evening for Canadiens fans around the globe.

But don't despair. It's only one game. The team wasn't going to go 82-0-0. All they have to do is regroup and walk into a rocking building in Winnipeg to steal the Jets' thunder Sunday night.