Canadiens Fire Pierre Gauthier

In a move that no one - and by "no one," I actually mean everyone - saw coming, the Montreal Canadiens today announced the firing of General Manager Pierre Gauthier.

Announcement: http://canadiens.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=624765&navid=DL|MTL|home

The other parts of the news are that Serge Savard has been appointed an advisor for the selection process of finding Gauthier's replacement - a strong move given that for all of Geoff Molson's passion and concern, he isn't truly a hockey guy. The official appointment of Savard, long speculated about by many, indicates that along with Gauthier, Bob Gainey's time of influence on the organization is also be at an end. Gainey occupied the role of special advisor to Gauthier since he stepped down as GM. Finally, the temporary Larry Carriere behind the bench experiment has come to a close, as he returns to his role as Assistant GM, taking on hockey operations (e.g. call-ups) duties until a new GM is in place.

Why was it right to fire Pierre Gauthier? I think anyone who has read this site has seen my enumerate reasons on many an occasion. Mismanagement of assets, a lack of back-up plans that forced the team to give up 2nd round picks year after year, this season's inexcusable inexperienced defense, the Scott Gomez trade likely having been one of the worst trades in the last decade or more, this season's Tomas Kaberle deal saddling the club with another big contract, the lack of class with which Gauthier handled some issues, and so much more. Gauthier's "plan," if there really was one big picture, failed. He tried to adapt on the fly, to bring in more size, to fix holes, to acquire future assets... but it was too little too late, and it was certainly time for him to go.

Why now? Well it didn't make sense to rush the process and get Gauthier out the door prior to the trade deadline, since it was important to have a hockey person in place to manage that busy time. The Canadiens need to search high and low to find the best possible replacement, and there are far fewer candidates available mid-season than during the summer. We'll go over candidates for the new GM in the coming days, but today Geoff Molson indicated winning and finding the best person for the job are top priorities (though language is also important), while Serge Savard indicated that - without doubt - the new GM will be capable of speaking French. Why not wait till season's end? At this point, it makes little difference. With Greg Pateryn signed, there are no upcoming close deadline for the Canadiens from a player management perspective, so the search is completely free to get underway.

More to come, now that we're back up and live on Dan's Daily Dose - Your Canadiens!

Habs Trade Talk - Deadline Dos and Don'ts

There's a big week in store for your Montreal Canadiens. And it has absolutely nothing to do with 3 winnable games against the Dallas Stars, Washington Capitals, and Florida Panthers.

Pierre Gauthier and his staff have until 3 PM EST next Monday (February 27th) to complete their final deals until after a team raises the Stanley Cup this June. For the first time in quite a while, the Canadiens appear to find themselves out of the running at the deadline, which should make them one of the league's few pure sellers. In economic terms, being one of the few is always a benefit, since by laws of supply-and-demand, the relative value of your assets increases, which means Gauthier is in a pretty powerful position. He has NHL-able talent to provide to the highest bidders.

Gauthier opened for business early in dealing Hal Gill to the Nashville Predators last week in a trade where all seem to agree he got as much as he could hope for in return for the 36-year old pending UFA. Given the number of dockets he has to manage this week, getting one off the table early is not a bad idea, particularly when it's unlikely the price for Gill would have gone up any higher a week later. If anything, by then, others teams with a need for a specialty player like him might have found their answers elsewhere.

But Gauthier still has many long nights ahead, not that he looks like he ever sleeps (or eats for that matter) anyway. The fact that the Canadiens are out of the playoff race likely means the team's future assets are safe, but that doesn't mean there are no places that Gauthier could still trip up. Here we look at some Dos and Don'ts for the man running the good ship Hab over the next 6 days.

Things To Do

1) Talk to the agents for pending unrestricted free agents Andrei Kostitsyn and Travis Moen. If Kostitsyn can be extended at $3.5M or less, and Moen at his current salary, get it done. I understand those who get very frustrated with Kostitsyn's inconsistencies, but the fact is the team won't be able to replace him with a big 20+ goal scorer who can play with physicality for any less money than he makes. If next season's third line looks something like Rene Bourque - Lars Eller - Andrei Kostitsyn, the team should be in good shape.

As for Moen, the fact that he is currently injured, whether or not it had to do with him being rushed back into the lineup inexplicably, means the team may not be able to trade him even if they wanted to. It's still possible that he'll be in the line-up Sunday vs. the Florida Panthers which would put his name back on the market, but he isn't yet skating and we've had no real updates on his health. Moen is a great guy to have on a fourth line alongside a Ryan White. Add a young player like Louis Leblanc or Blake Geoffrion, and the team's bottom 6 looks pretty sound.

The most important "do," is that if either of these guys isn't signed this week, they must be dealt elsewhere. Their value in Montreal for another 20 games is very minimal. The return the may bring in, perhaps a 2nd round pick each, will be of much greater help to the club in the big picture.

2) Try to offload some contracts. Two players in particular, to me, don't fit into this team's long-term structure. The obvious one is Scott Gomez, though moving him will be easier said than done. The team is likely going to have to wait till the summer to deal with his problem contract, whether through a possible new CBA-permitted no-cap-hit buyout, or by trading him for another poor contract given his actual dollar amount owed drops for the next two seasons.

The other one is Tomas Kaberle. Kaberle defenders will point to his 17 points in 31 games with the Habs as strong production, and they're not wrong. That pace would mean a 45-point 82-game season, which are good numbers for a blueliner. But calling Kaberle a blueliner might be a bit of a stretch; he is the furthest thing from dependable in his own end and needs to play sheltered minutes with a strong defensive partner. Seeing him on the ice beside Chris Campoli has created enough nightmares for Hab fans already. If the team was within earshot of a playoff spot, I would say Kaberle has his place here until season's end due to Andrei Markov's uncertain status between now and April. But the Russian is working hard to get back into shape, and at this point there is little reason to doubt his presence in the team's opening night line-up next October. Since our focus should be building for next season, with Markov and the likes of P.K. Subban, Raphael Diaz, and Yannick Weber in Montreal, Kaberle is redundant and should be replaced with a more complete player. His production during his time with the Canadiens might actually make up a moveable asset, even though the return will be limited (and likely less than the Habs would have gotten for selling a Jaroslav Spacek rental). That's the reason to trade him now instead of waiting to see how Markov progresses; demand for Kaberle and his contract won't always be there.

3) Trade the other UFAs. If moving Kaberle and/or Gomez may be difficult, moving Chris Campoli should be easier. He won't return much more than a late round draft pick, but depth defensemen rentals are always in demand come deadline. Another pending UFA, Mathieu Darche, may have generated some interest with his resurgent play as well, and though he would like to stay in Montreal, if anyone offers any kind of pick or prospect for his services, Gauthier would be silly to ignore it.

4) Test market interest in still-useful players. Yannick Weber jumps to mind as a player being wasted in his present role in Montreal, but who other teams may see potential in. Weber needs to either be developed properly as an offensive defenseman or sent to an organization that will give him that chance before he is completely depleted as an asset. If Petteri Nokelainen returns to the line-up this week - a possibility given he is skating again - the Canadiens should at the least be able to recoup the 7th round pick spent to acquire him, if not improve upon it from a team that needs face-off help going into the playoffs. Aaron Palushaj doesn't look to have much of a future in Montreal, especially with the addition of Blake Geoffrion and the graduation of Brendan Gallagher and Michael Bournival to Hamilton next season. Perhaps there is a club that would swap a younger prospect or draft pick for him as a more NHL-ready player.

The more controversial one, which I've mentioned before, is the idea of floating either Tomas Plekanec or David Desharnais. Trading either before having a replacement plan in place would be a HUGE risk, but it never hurts to see if there might be a can't-refuse offer out there. In case you missed my previous discussion about moving one of them, the idea is that the Canadiens should add a BIG top 6 center to improve their match-ups against bigger forward lines and bigger shutdown D pairings. As I'd like Lars Eller to remain the third line center, bringing in a large pivot would mean moving either Pleks or DD. The harder part will be finding the right player to replace one of them; say a Mikhail Grigorenko or Ryan Getzlaf.

5) Don't ignore any sweepstakes for contracted established players. Just because the Canadiens are a "seller," doesn't mean they should be out of the running if any signed veterans who could help the team become available. Marquee players don't become available every day. If a player is on the market, Gauthier shouldn't close any doors. Especially if he's already sold some players off by then, he may have considerable future assets to work with. The biggest name known to be at least "somewhat" available right now is Columbus's Rick Nash. His contract may not be the most attractive, but the package he brings to the table is one that would help the Canadiens in a big way. The more pressing need might be for a marquee center with size, but adding Nash to a team with Max Pacioretty and Erik Cole would help to make the Habs a tough team to defend against. Of course, Nash may be a moot point, as there are no confirmed reports that he would even consider waiving his no-movement clause to come to Montreal even if a deal were worked out.

Things To Avoid

1) Trading significant future assets. That means no 2012 draft picks (this year's first has to be COMPLETELY off limits), Brendan Gallagher, Michael Bournival, Jarred Tinordi (who celebrated his 20th birthday yesterday), Nathan Beaulieu, or Danny Kristo. Heck, I'd even add Morgan Ellis, Darren Dietz, and Greg Pateryn to this group. The exception is in the case of #5 of the things to do, of course, since to bring in a premiere player, a prospect or two may have to be sacrificed. But in general, these names should be considered off-limits during a poor season.

2) Dealing recklessly with Columbus. Yes, Rick Nash *could* be a nice addition. But he also comes with a cap hit of $7.8M per season until 2018 which is a big chunk of change, even for a 60-point player. I would still take Nash, but wouldn't be willing to sacrifice anything and everything to acquire him. If that means the Habs are outbid for his services, so be it.

It's not just Nash who is allegedly available from the Blue Jackets though. They may also seek to part with Jeff Carter after acquiring him last June. Carter has appeared unhappy to play in Columbus since the day he was traded, the issue has gotten worse as a nagging foot injury has limited him to just 38 games. If you had asked me prior to this season if I'd have interest in Carter, I'd have said absolutely. A 6'3" goal-scoring center seemed to be just what the doctor ordered. But now consider his injuries, combined with his scoring just 22 points in those 38 games in his first season outside of Philadelphia, and - most importantly - the fact that his $5.3M cap hit extends until 2022 (when he'll be 37). Yes, Carter is a much better player than Scott Gomez, but his contract is also much longer and could handicap the team in a similar way. Thus, I would stay far away from any trade talks involving him.

Another Jacket with an unfavourable contract and likely on the market is Derick Brassard. Again, a 6'1" offensive center would appear to fit the bill nicely, but after setting career highs with 17 goals and 47 points as a 23-year old last season, his play has gone way south this year, undoubtedly making the Jackets regret his $3.2M annually deal that ends in 2014. Brassard has just 24 points in 51 games and was even a healthy scratch at times. The obvious connection to Montreal is a language one, with Brassard hailing from Hull, QC. But unless the Jackets are going to return the favour and take a contract like Gomez or Kaberle's from the Canadiens in the deal, I would be very hesitant to bring in Brassard.

3) Trading core pieces to address needs. If Gauthier does find an available player that fits into the team's plan, he must avoid the trap of addressing a need while creating another. The following roster players are my untouchable list which should not be included in any transaction: Carey Price, P.K. Subban, Alexei Emelin, Lars Eller, Josh Gorges, Max Pacioretty, and Erik Cole. This is my core, while there is flexibility for the remainder.

4) This last one is not for Gauthier, but for Habs fans. Avoid following made-up internet rumour mongers. That means Eklund, Incarcerated Bob, Hockeyy Insiderr, The Creasy, El Cloun (and his Vestiaire gang)... and Bruce Garrioch... If you follow them for strictly entertainment purposes to read whatever nonsense proposals they put out there, then fine. I follow some of them for that purpose as well. But please PLEASE don't take any of their alleged "rumours" too seriously. Most of it is either made up for some, or simply re-posting whatever any random anonymous source "leaks" to them for others.

If Gauthier can abide by all of this, it should be a relatively successful week. One "do" for Hab fans: Hang in there, and stay tuned to http://www.yourcanadiens.info/ and/or our Twitter account @DailyCanadiens for all the latest insights and analysis as the transactions unfold. I'll be in Madrid over the weekend, so posts are more likely to be after-the-fact analysis depending on timing, but I will be stationed in my European workspace Monday ready to bring you all the news as-it-happens.

Not Your Manic Monday

What a weekend it was, Habs fans. Did they have you believing again? Even the most doubting of tanquists like myself has to admit that last week's 4-game win streak had me thinking that maybe... just maybe... there was a sudden reason to cling to hope. Maybe a truly miraculous run was still possible. Maybe this team could play like all hoped they would coming into the year.

The 5-0 win Saturday over the arch-rival Toronto Maple Leafs felt good. Even in my biggest tanker moments, I still wanted nothing more than to watch the team contribute to extending Toronto's playoff dry spell, hoping that the Canadiens would lose every night except when facing the Leafs. For a re-tooler, then, April 7th's season finale has the potential to be this season's equivalent of a 7th game of the Stanley Cup finals.

The team's prospects - not that they've been the problem whatsoever this year - also got in on the act to put fans in a good mood, if only for a brief stint. Brendan Gallagher's weekend consisted of a goal and 2 assists, with the marker tying him for all-time leading scorer in Vancouver Giants history. Michael Bournival put up a goal and 3 helpers in his 2-game set, while teammate Morgan Ellis's 2 assists went along with a +5 rating. Nathan Beaulieu's 4 assists this weekend have him on an impressive 4-game, 8-point streak. But perhaps most impressive was Ryan White, who after only making his highly anticipated season debut last week, scored 4 goals and an assist in 4 AHL conditioning stint games.

I hope you enjoyed it while it lasted, Canadiens faithful, as instead of a manic Monday that would have refilled the bandwagon with what should have been an "easier" win over the cellar dweller Carolina Hurricanes, we all came crashing back to reality with a hard thud. Blame Carey Price for not having his best game of the year if you'd like. Blame Andrei Kostitsyn for pulling his famous disappearing act. Blame Scott Gomez for... oh wait, you already blame him. Blame Pierre Gauthier for sending Jaroslav Spacek (1 goal, -1) to Carolina for Tomas Kaberle (1 assist, -2). Blame Montreal's powerplay for - after finally showing life with 2 goals in the 2nd period - allowing a backbreaking Eric Staal shorthanded tally early in the third. Blame whoever you want. Had anything really changed?

Following another patented 2011-12 Montreal Canadien Third Period Collapse™ (MCTPC), despite last week's heroics, the Habs awake today still 2 games below .500, 7 points out of a playoff position, and though currently in 11th place, just one point up on each of the 12th, 13th, and 14th place clubs in the East, each of whom hold two games in hand on them. In fact, although last week's run allowed the hopeless romantic and diehard fan in me to live some highs, my rational tanker identity for this season knows that dropping last night's decision to the Hurricanes was a huge step towards hopefully securing a high pick. The loss puts Montreal just 2 points up on 15th place Carolina, with both teams having played 57 of 82.

Now, I hear what you're saying. I'm giving up too easily. After a good week, just one bad game and I'm back to doom and gloom. But let's take it for what it was: a good week for what has been a poor team for most of the season. To make the playoffs, the team would likely need something like a 20-5-0 record here on out, and while it is true that it could be achieved by repeating the past week's 4-1 record five times over, I would say the odds of that occurring are about as likely as you winning the team's season ticket Lotricolore charity lottery with a single entry. "But... But... The St. Louis Cardinals!" you rebut. Yes, the Cardinals overcame a substantial deficit in turning a tough season around and going on to win a championship, but baseball isn't hockey. First of all, the baseball season is virtually double the length of the NHL's, meaning there is significantly more time to make up lost ground. Even still, you might argue, the Cards sat 10 and a half games back of the Atlanta Braves with just 32 games to play in their season. Well that leads to a second point, which is that even with exceptional play, it took a monumental collapse of epic proportions on the part of the Braves for St. Louis to get in. Still, there is no reason why such a bad spell couldn't befall any number of playoff hopefuls in the East, allowing the Habs to leapfrog them. Then what makes me believe the playoffs are such an impossibility? The most compelling difference between the NHL and MLB standings, being the existence of hockey's 3-point games. Three point nights can be your friend when you're in 7th or 8th spot and trying to hold on, collecting loser points here and there, but when you're in a hole, the more points that get spread among the teams you are battling with, the bigger the hill becomes to climb.

This is why I maintain that the plan needs to remain on course. A few happiness-inducing wins right now for a 10th or 11th place finish aren't in anyone's best interest. The main goal for all is to put together a Stanley Cup winning team, and the best way for the team to help itself towards that end will be to add a premiere franchise player courtesy of a top 5 draft selection.

So let's sat back and enjoy the show to the trade deadline and beyond. The call-up of Ryan White (and extremely odd 24 hours of Ian Schultz) in preparation for Wednesday night's dance with the Boston Bruins should at least keep fans entertained. Beat the Leafs, beat up the Bruins, and add a Mikhail Grigorenko or other top end talent? That's plenty to satiate my 2011-12 Hab needs.

[apologies for lack of updates Thursday, Friday, and Monday; as I Tweeted from this site's account, I was in Portugal and did not have sufficient time to prep pieces]

Player Spotlight: What is Alexei Emelin?

The title of this post isn't confusing Alexei Emelin for an androgynous being. Nor is it referring to the popularized photos of his gut during training camp in combination with his thundering #EmelinBoom hits to claim he is some non-human mutant. It is of course also not about his ethnicity, religion, or any other such trait. No, the important "what is" question surrounding Emelin with the Montreal Canadiens is what he can be as a player moving forward.

Nearly every summer since his selection by the Habs in the 3rd round in 2004, Canadiens fans were teased with the possibility that Emelin may take his game to North America. Yet, the 6'0" solid brick rearguard remained in Russia, first playing for Tolyatti Lada, and then joining Kazan Ak-Bars. Many had given up on the 25 year old ever crossing the ocean, so when rumours again popped up last summer about him signing a deal, fans remained skeptical.

And yet here he is, on a one-year, CBA-mandated $984,200 deal. He's had a few ups and downs this season, but has mostly come as advertised, delivering bone-crushing blows to opposing forwards. But is that all he is? Or what is he? Let's look at some possible roles Emelin could play with the team down the stretch and beyond.

Heavy Hitting Defensive Liability: Through preseason and into the start of the year, this is the kind of player Emelin looked to be. He didn't look out of place on his more comfortable left side, but still had some spatial issues related to adapting to the smaller ice surface. He would sometimes put himself out of position, and/or have trouble tracking loose pucks in his feet or vicinity. The problems in his game were heightened when he was shifted to the right side while trying to make adjustments in his North American rookie season and his game trailed off a bit. But there is a place for even such a player in Montreal given the general softness of the team's back end. If this is who he is, he would simply have to be played with a defensively competent partner. Think a Mike Komisarek in his final year with the Canadiens, were his play was subpar, but he was still quite physical.

Crease-Clearing Defensive Defensemen: At this point, however, it is unlikely that the above is all Emelin can be. His game - even on his unnatural right side - has come along way since day 1, and he has generally been trusted with increasing minutes and responsibilities as the season has progressed (with of course the occasional exceptions since the team has regularly dressed 7 d-men for much of the year). Emelin has remained physical while improving his play in his own end, making him an extremely valuable part of the d-corps. Think of a young budding Darius Kasparaitis. The kind of guy who can support a risk-taking partner, and that opposing forwards hate skating in against. Of course, such a player would be a key cog to the Habs' future.

Intimidating Two-Way Presence: But let's dream a little. The 2010-11 season saw Emelin set career highs in the KHL, scoring 11 goals and 26 points in 52 games. For a player whose past 4 seasons consisted of 1, 0, 0, and 2 goals respectively, the numbers certainly jumped off the page. Despite a few chances here and there, there were no real signs of that Emelin through the first 36 games of 2011-12, as he collected just a single NHL assist. But suddenly, over the last 6 games, the rearguard has seemed less shy about jumping in to join the rush. During that span, he scored his first two NHL goals and added another helper. He has surprisingly shown some pretty good hands to go along with a heavy point shot, indicating there just may be some offensive upside to his game yet. If he can become even a 30-point player while maintaining his in-your-face style, the team will have a star on their hands.

So what is he? Only time will tell. It looks like he can be a dependable top 4 guy on the left side, offering the kind of size and toughness (even if he won't fight) Montreal lacks. He is most certainly part of my solution to the troubles the team is currently mired in, and I sincerely hope Pierre Gauthier (or his replacement) agrees, and is able to lock him up with a multi-year contract this summer. If most Habs are presently available on the trade market for the right price, Emelin would be one of my few untouchables.

So How About the New Guy?

Sure, it's only been two games and sure, Rene Bourque has yet to collect his first point as a member of the Montreal Canadiens, but in the brief time that has passed since his acquisition from the Calgary Flames, he has appeared to fit right in.

No one will ever confuse Bourque's pure skill for that of Mike Cammalleri. Cammalleri's hands give him game breaker potential when he's on. Unfortunately for the Habs, he was off more frequently than on during his tenure in Montreal, and his 5'9" frame wasn't helping his case on a team with many small forwards.

What Bourque brings, however, are elements the team has lacked. He's a big body at 6'2", 211 lbs, and even if he doesn't always do so consistently, he has shown willingness to use it effectively in throwing hits and even dropping the gloves last night to defend himself (in, what I might add, was the most impressive bout delivered by any Canadien this season). He is quick which fits in well with the team's philosophy and has a wicked release that can replace Cammy's one-knee-one-timers. While he is by no means a first line talent, on the wing of a 2nd or 3rd offensive trio, Bourque appears to be part of the solution as the Canadiens remodel. If the top 6 can be stocked with more skilled forwards, a third unit of Bourque, Lars Eller, and Andrei Kostitsyn could be effective and cause big problems for smaller defenders.

While not all trades have clear winners and losers and it is very possible that Cammalleri excels back in Calgary, either way it appears that Pierre Gauthier did well on this one. While he did add some term (with Bourque having two years extra on his deal compared to Cammalleri) and did get half a year older, he saved $2.67M on the cap for the next two seasons, upgraded a 5th this year to a 2nd round pick in 2013, and got a body consistent with the philosophy this team is heading for (to get bigger up front). Now if only he can find takers for Scott Gomez and Tomas Kaberle, we'll be ready for a new era to begin.

Entering the Post-Cammalleri Era

Canadiens General Manager Pierre Gauthier made a big splash last week when he pulled Mike Cammalleri out of a game against the Boston Bruins to deal him to the Calgary Flames. While the timing of the trade and the manner in which it was executed was a little suspect to say the least, the shedding of a large salary and the moving of an unproductive winger was a necessary step in shaping the Habs moving forward.

Why was it necessary, and where does it leave the team now? Let's take a look at the current situation, and then how the Canadiens might position themselves to bounce back and contend as soon as next season.

Finishing Out 2011-12

The Canadiens did not and do not have issues with the salary cap for the current season. That seems to have been a misconception with Scott Gomez's return to the line-up, but even with his albatross contract, thanks to LTIR savings from numerous injuries, the roster is well within the upper limit. However, raises will be necessary for a number of core roster components in the near future, and thus flexibility moving forward should be at a premium.

Even after last night's impressive win over the powerful New York Rangers, Montreal sits 8 points out a playoff spot, with 3 teams sitting between them and the 8th place Pittsburgh Penguins, each of which has a game in hand. Not the most enviable of spots to be in. The Habs are 17-20-8, with 37 games left to make up the ground. If we assume a 93-point playoff cut-off, which may or may not be a safe assumption, they will have to earn 51 points over those 37 games, meaning a record of 25-11-1 or something equivalent. Not impossible (see: The Boston Bruins since November), but it would require an absolutely incredible run, something the Canadiens have given no indication of being capable of through their play thus far this season. Winning roughly 2 or more out of every 3 games for the rest of the calendar is not a bet I'd want to place, so from my perspective, playoffs are out of reach in 2012.

This is hurtful and hard to accept, but we need to be honest about it. I will always be a Habs fan and thus I want my team to win on a nightly basis. I get mad/upset when they lose games in most seasons. But folks, "tanking" isn't a dirty word. If you're a fan who wants to stand by and hope for the miracle of a huge win streak, then fine, I applaud your optimism. However, also understand that if this is the path you choose, you should not be complaining about the Canadiens continued lack of a true #1 center or of a star-caliber impact player. There are no #1 centers on the UFA market this summer, and offensive centers with size are not easy to come by on the trade market. The best way to add the kind of player the Habs need is through the draft and specifically through a top pick. If Montreal finishes in the cellar and nabs, say, the 2nd overall pick this year, a Mikhail Grigorenko (a 6'2" offensive dynamo who plays primarily center in the QMJHL) is a phenomenal fit to take the team to another level. That's the path I would prefer. I'm not a fan of tanking when there is still playoff hope, but at this point, when it stops looking realistic to me, I'm thinking longer term.

Unfortunately if not understandably, "tanking" doesn't appear to be in the Canadiens' vocabulary. The team is committed to winning hockey games, regardless of the situation they're in, which is frustrating (why couldn't they have replicated the Rangers effort a few more times this year?!). This is ok. I'm not saying they should be throwing games. What we have to hope, however, is that the team isn't so committed to winning that they will make moves during a near hopeless season that further handicap them for the future. The trading of prospects and draft picks, unless it is for similar young assets, should be completely off limits. Similarly, if Travis Moen or Andrei Kostitsyn don't agree to extensions before the deadline, as pending UFAs, good asset management is to ship them to the highest bidder by late February in order to avoid losing them for nothing. They shouldn't be retained just to help the team this season, just as Hal Gill and Chris Campoli, who should not factor into any plans beyond this year, must also find new homes by deadline day. So long as this is all part of the plan, I have no problem with the team continuing to try to win. Don't give up, but manage your squad with future interests in mind at all times.

2012-13 and the Salary Cap Situation

The Canadiens have the following NHL players under contract for next season:

Scott Gomez - $7,357,143

Tomas Plekanec - $5,000,000

Brian Gionta - $5,000,000

Erik Cole - $4,500,000

Rene Bourque - $3,333,333

Max Pacioretty - $1,625,000

David Desharnais - $850,000

Andrei Markov - $5,750,000

Tomas Kaberle - $4,250,000

Josh Gorges - $3,900,000

Yannick Weber - $850,000

Peter Budaj - $1,150,000

That's $43,565,476 committed, with a bare minimum need of 5 forward, 2 defensemen, and a starting goaltender to be signed (or spots filled with prospects / traded for players). The biggest wild cards at present are the new collective bargaining agreement and any changes it may bring to league rules, and how they salary cap may fluctuate at season's end. For the time being, we'll go with good ol' ceteris paribus, assuming the cap remains constant at $64,300,000.

The two big dockets for Pierre Gauthier or his successor are Carey Price and P.K. Subban, both restricted free agents this coming summer. There was rumour this week of a discussed $7M / season deal for Price, which even if untrue, couldn't be horribly far off. We'll be conservative and use that $7M number, even if a $6M or $6.5M final figure is possible. Subban hasn't done himself any favours with his play and lack of production this season, but he is still logging significant minutes and is an important cog on defense. The Habs will likely push for term with him while he could be had relatively cheap, though he may opt to sign a 1-year deal in the neighbourhood of $2.5M. Let's say the parties meet in the middle somewhere and his cap hit comes in at about $3.25M for a couple of seasons.

Add these two deals to the mix, and suddenly we're looking at just $10,484,524 to fill the remaining spots. Can the team afford the $4M - $4.5M Andrei Kostitsyn is likely to receive as a UFA? What kind of raises have young RFAs Lars Eller, Alexei Emelin, and Raphael Diaz earned? Those four alone will eat a good chunk of the remaining space, and that's before looking outside the organization to actually improve the roster. Not to mention that the summer of 2013 will require significant pay increases for Max Pacioretty and - if he's still in Montreal by then - David Desharnais, with few deals coming off the books between the two seasons. More dead weight salary needs to go, particularly the contract of Scott Gomez (possibly through a clause in a new CBA that would allow some form of cap hit-free buyout) and Tomas Kaberle (productive, fine, but can't be paying $4.25M for an 8-minute-a-game defenseman, especially if we assume Andrei Markov will be a healthy part of the team).

If we're to believe recent comments, then Pierre Gauthier is getting serious about something fans have been clamouring for: increasing the team's size and toughness. With that goal in mind, and with the idea of shedding the aforementioned salaries, I'd present the following as the current shell of a contending team in Montreal:

Max Pacioretty - 1 - Erik Cole

Andrei Kostitsyn - Tomas Plekanec - Brian Gionta

Rene Bourque - Lars Eller - Brendan Gallagher

2 - 3 - Ryan White

Andrei Markov - Josh Gorges

4 - P.K. Subban

Alexei Emelin - Raphael Diaz

Carey Price

Peter Budaj

The first thing you might notice is that this team isn't hugely different from the group of players currently under contract. As I've said before, I don't think a full-scale rebuild is necessary; just a re-tooling. The next thing you might notice is the lack of David Desharnais. I like the kid. He has performed well beyond anyone's expectations this season. But if this team wants to get bigger and tougher, it needs to start at the center position. One of Desharnais or Tomas Plekanec needs to be replaced with a bigger, tougher body who can match up better against the opposing team's power players. Desharnais seems to be the more logical choice, especially given that his value currently and into the off-season is likely at the highest it will ever be. Third is the insertion of Brendan Gallagher into the line-up. If he plays like he did in training camp this past Fall again next season, I don't think the Canadiens will be able to send him to Hamilton. He plays the kind of hard-nosed game the team needs and will provide secondary scoring on a third line with two bigger linemates. If he isn't ready, Aaron Palushaj may get one last chance to show something at the NHL level after dominating the AHL.

Then we get to the numbers: 4 spots that for next season, to me, would need to be filled from outside the organization. Let's look at each of the spots.

1 - Big, Legitimate First-Line Center: Clearly this is the tough one. Luckily, I'm not asking for miracles all over the place; this is really the only particularly tough spot to fill out of the four. The problem is that it's going to be really really tough to fill, at least for 2012-13. There are absolutely no candidates available on the UFA market, though Tuomo Ruutu comes close. Ruutu would make a good addition, but doesn't address the need for star power or "legit first liners," so he would be a nice complementary piece, if, say Andrei Kostitsyn were upgraded to Zach Parise on the market. Olli Jokinen has had a bit of a rebirth of late in Calgary, but at 33, he's a short term option at best. Another option is the trade market, but of course, you have to give to get, and even when you do, teams aren't lining up to give you a star center. There has been a lot of talk about Ryan Getzlaf being available in Anaheim, and Gauthier would at least have to place a phone call on that one, but any trade will be risky given that Getzlaf could become a UFA in 2013. A signed Getzlaf would be the type of addition that could earn the team contender status, but I have doubts that he could be woo'ed away without a P.K. Subban or Max Pacioretty heading the other way, thus creating gaps elsewhere in the line-up. Thus, the team may have to look elsewhere, perhaps to the San Jose Sharks who have cap issues of their own and could consider moving a Joe Thornton or Patrick Marleau. At 32, Thornton's best days are behind him, but he would sure look good setting up Pacioretty and Erik Cole, and $7M of cap space would be much better spent on him than Gomez. Habs fans have all heard enough of Vincent Lecavalier rumours, but with the Lightning having a disappointing season, they may look at moving him to get out from under the cap. I'd say away, personally, only because of his contract which doesn't expire until 2020. All of this is basically why I said the draft is the only real way to address this primary need. So here's hoping for a little luck and then the slotting of Grigorenko into that spot next year!

2 - Fourth Line Winger: Part of the change in philosophy, I hope, involves making the team tougher to play against. Mathieu Darche may give it his all, but this spot needs to go to a more physical player. At this stage, it doesn't appear that either Andrew Conboy or Ian Schultz - both of whom have had their development stunted by injuries this season - will be ready (if they are even ever to make the bigs), so we'll need to look outside the org for solutions. Fortunately, the UFA market does have some answers here, and this brand of player is likely to come at a cheap price. Some names to consider: Tom Kostopoulos, Brandon Prust, Shawn Thornton, Arron Asham, Daniel Carcillo, Jim Slater, Greg Campbell, Tanner Glass, Adam Burish, or - if his salary demands are acceptable for a fourth line winger - retaining Travis Moen.

3 - Fourth Line Center: It's not that I don't like Petteri Nokelainen, nor do I lack faith in Andreas Engqvist, but like with spot 2, I'm looking for a tough, physical player with size. If that fails, I want a reliable defensive center who is good on draws. Amongst UFAs, Paul Gaustad would seem to be an ideal target, though I could also see the organization easing in Louis Leblanc by starting him in this role.

4 - Top 4 Defensive (or Two-Way) Defenseman: This one is the second toughest after the first line center role, but at least there are plenty of candidates out there. The pairing of Andrei Markov and Josh Gorges should get the most minutes next season, but P.K. Subban needs a veteran to play beside while the stacked prospect stable (Jarred Tinordi, Nathan Beaulieu, and more) take their time developing. If I'm permitted to dream a little, UFA Ryan Suter would look phenomenal in this line-up hole and vastly improve the allure of the team's back end. Francois Beauchemin is average-sized but brings a physical element, while Brad Stuart may be unlikely to leave Detroit but should be a top target if he becomes available. Pavel Kubina is aging, but given his services would only be needed for a year or two while the youngins gain experience, he might look good on Gorges's right (meaning Subban would play with Markov). On the cheaper side, Bryan Allen or Jonny Boychuck would make suitable options that shouldn't add another big contract to the team's cap.

So what would this all look like? Playing a little with the CapGeek.com calculator shows something like the following. We'll assume, for the sake of the exercise, that Desharnais, Palushaj, Weber, and some top picks and prospects are used directly or indirectly (through multiple deals, e.g. trading those 3 players for picks and assets, and using those assets towards a big fish) to land Getzlaf. Is this team a contender? Is it realistic? Is it better than this year's squad? What's your take?

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS

Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Ryan Getzlaf ($5.325m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)

Rene Bourque ($3.333m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)

Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau ($3.800m) / Lars Eller ($1.500m) / Brendan Gallagher ($0.715m)

Brandon Prust ($0.920m) / Louis Leblanc ($1.170m) / Ryan White ($0.625m)

Andreas Engqvist ($0.900m)

DEFENSEMEN

Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)

Francois Beauchemin ($3.800m) / P.K. Subban ($3.250m)

Alexei Emelin ($1.800m) / Raphael Diaz ($1.800m)

Frederic St. Denis ($0.605m)

GOALTENDERS

Carey Price ($7.000m) / Peter Budaj ($1.150m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS

(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)

SALARY CAP: $64,300,000;

CAP PAYROLL: $63,468,333;

BONUSES: $300,000

CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $831,667

Canadiens Send Cammalleri to Flames

The Montreal Canadiens perhaps began planning for next year as they sent forward Michael Cammalleri back to the Calgary Flames tonight. Cammalleri, along with the rights to young goaltender Karri Ramo (playing in Russia, and has stated he's happy to stay there) and a 5th round pick this year, were sent to Calgary in return for forward Rene Bourque, prospect Patrick Holland, and a 2nd round selection in 2013.

I mentioned earlier tonight that, from what I could see, with Brian Gionta's injury, Cammalleri's days in Montreal were numbered. Pierre Gauthier didn't take long to prove me right on that count. In his two and a half years with the Canadiens, Cammalleri will best be remembered for his playoff heroics, but in truth, his regular season statistics were exceptionally underwhelming. He had career numbers with the Flames the season before signing with Montreal, so from his perspective, he is likely hoping a return to Calgary will re-ignite (sorry for the pun!) his career. Gauthier claims this deal has been in the works for over a month, and Cammalleri's recent media comments had absolutely nothing to do with it.

The central piece of the package coming back Montreal's way is winger Rene Bourque. Bourque is a 6'2", 205 lbs LW who, like Cammalleri, is struggling this season, posting just 16 points in 38 games (though he has managed 13 goals). Prior to this season, he had scored 27 in each of the last two years (and is on pace for a similar total), and he plays a far more physical brand of hockey than Cammalleri. Some might say he crosses the line, as he has been suspended on two occasions in the last month, sitting 2 games on December 19th, and with still 1 game left to serve on a recent 5-game sentence for an elbow to the head. Bourque turned 30 last month and is under contract for four more seasons after the current one but at a reasonable cap hit of $3.33M. His size, scoring touch, and oh I suppose his a French name (it works for Nathan Beaulieu)... have the potential of being a good fit with the Canadiens.

Patrick Holland was taken in the 7th round by Calgary in 2010, making him an unusual target for Pierre Gauthier (perhaps that's what he calls "thinking outside the box"). A 6'0", 175 lbs right winger, Holland just turned 20 and is in his final season with the WHL's Tri-City Americans, alma mater of goaltender Carey Price. This year, he has 17 goals and 57 points in 40 games ranking him 9th amongst the league's scoring leaders.

The final piece being a 2nd round selection in 2013, I am at first glance a little underwhelmed with the deal. I expected Cammalleri to be moved, but for greater future assets than what did actually come back. Why couldn't the 2nd rounder have been this year, for example? Though Cammy has underperformed, his playoff resume led me to believe that he could have fetched a higher return from a contender with cap space closer to the trade deadline. Looking at what other struggling players like Dustin Penner and Tomas Kaberle went for in previous years, it has hard to believe that there couldn't have been a better offer to come, though the term remaining on Cammy's deal may have tempered interest.

Still, there is some upside here, starting with the $2.667M in space the Canadiens will save for each of the next two years by shedding Cammalleri's $6M deal and of course getting bigger up front with the addition of Bourque. So long as Bourque remains productive, his contract is very cap-friendly, and it will be necessary given the upcoming raises necessary for the team's younger NHL'ers. Ditching a small player like Cammalleri also creates a spot for 5'8" prospect Brendan Gallagher possibly as soon as next year. There was no way the Canadiens could sustain a forward group including Gallagher (5'8"), Brian Gionta (5'7"), David Desharnais (5'7"), and Cammalleri (5'9") all in the top 9 forwards. Bourque will help to create space for some of these smaller bodies on a scoring line.

I'll reserve final judgment for the time being, but say that I don't hate the move. A little disappointed, and I'll miss you Mike, but at least Gauthier managed to shed a salary without taking any horrendous contracts back. I'll like the move more if it precedes the dealing of Scott Gomez and Tomas Kaberle as well, but only Mr. Gauthier knows what could be in the cards between now and the trade deadline, just over a month away.

Your Canadiens for January 2, 2012

A busy off-day for the Habs in Brossard this morning. Here are your top stories:

- A day after signing his 6 year contract extension, Habs Josh Gorges had to play intermediary at practice this morning has tempers flared up. After Mike Cammalleri exchanged some unfriendly words with P.K. Subban, Subban and Tomas Plekanec swapped a few shoves, nearly coming to blows. Gorges got in the middle and broke things up, and as always when this sort of thing occurs, their teammates laughed it off after practice, explaining that everyone wants to win and this sort of thing occurs when a team is struggling. It's not the first time, however, that things have gotten heated between Subban and Cammalleri/Plekanec. It may simply be a case of Subban's #AlwaysOn personality/intensity and constant chirping being tolerable when the team is hot, but unbearable when things aren't going as well.

- Pierre Gauthier addressed the media today for his annual mid-season report. Some key highlights were the repetition that Andrei Markov won't be back before the All-Star break, that Gauthier hasn't given up on the season and will explore all options to improve performance on the ice, that he apologizes for offending some by naming a unilingual Anglophone as the interim Canadiens' head coach, and that Brian Gionta will return to the line-up before Scott Gomez. Some quotes from Mr. Gauthier:

On Josh Gorges: "We're happy he accepted our offer, and thanks to him. It was an extension of discussions we had this summer, but we wanted to wait to see how his knee would hold up. His case was different than Andrei Markov's, given that he was an RFA whereas Markov was a UFA, and Mr. Gorges needed multiple parts of his knee repaired vs. Markov's problem being a single ligament."

On other UFA/RFA: "Each case is different and evaluated over the course of the season. We have no rules about when we can speak to any of our own players. We have every intention of keeping Carey Price and P.K. Subban with the team for a long time."

On Andrei Markov's health: "He is doing well and his rehab is progressing. I wouldn't expect him to play before the All-Star break. His procedure in December was just an arthroscopic surgery to clean up debris from a previous surgery and remove some scar tissue."

On Randy Cunneyworth and the language issue: "I'm sorry for offending anyone by naming a unilingual interim head coach of the Montreal Canadiens. For the coach to be able to speak French is something that is important to us, but we felt we needed to make the best move and that we had the best candidate within the organization. As Geoff Molson said, language will be a strong consideration for us when we hire a permanent head coach at season's end (whether that means Mr. Cunneyworth taking French lessons or hiring a French-speaker). We handed Mr. Cunneyworth a very difficult schedule. We hoped for better results, but we are seeing changes in the way the team competes on-ice."

On the balance of the 2011-12 season: "Our objective is to start winning and to play better hockey. 11 of our next 15 games are at home, so we hope to use this stand to turn the direction of our season around. Our fans deserve better. Our team needs to find solutions to reward the great support and dedication of our fans. We always have to be trying to improve on every level, whether it's conditioning, prospect development, through trades, or anything else. Everyone has to look in the mirror: players, coaches, and administration. We're all motivated by daily competition and focus on what we can control."

On why the team is where it is: "You have to look at injuries in a certain way. Because of the players out of the line-up, we're playing well below the salary cap, in the bottom 10 teams in the league. But still, 6 of those 10 teams are in playoff positions, so we can't blame it only on injuries. There are other problems. Every game, we're missing key veterans, but we also have veterans playing who aren't performing well. There is a trickle down effect. Too much is being asked of young players. We can't put them in this situation where they're depended on to pick up the slack. It leads to individual breakdowns."

On solutions to the current situation: "3 main areas. One is that we need reinforcement now, which could be from injured players returning to the line-up. Two is that we need improvement in our play as a team. Everybody needs to be all-in. It's a team game and we have to find a certain cohesion to play effective hockey. And third is that, as coaches and managers, we need to do our share. We'll explore all avenues to improve."

On the big contracts and salary cap moving forward: "Cap constraints are things you manage in the off-season. Everything is planned. We'll have the resources available to keep good young players. Having good players signed for several years is a good thing."

That was the gist of it. Biggest concern to me? It focused mainly on what the team can do to fix things and win now, with no mentions of building for the future. We just need to hope that whatever band-aid deal the team looks at to improve the situation, it doesn't involve taking on lengthy contracts and won't require the trading of top prospects or draft picks.

- After taking a puck to the face against Team USA, Habs prospect Nathan Beaulieu was at practice with Team Canada today. The defenseman will wear a full face shield.

- A report indicates that the Montreal Canadiens lead the NHL in ticket revenues per game.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/nhl/article/1109400--for-nhl-the-cash-is-in-canada?bn=1

That, combined with the high percentages of salaries being paid by insurance this season, means the Molson family should be making a pretty penny, playoffs or not.

Is Habs' Season Salvageable?

When the National Hockey League's holiday trade freeze expires after December 27th, Montreal Canadiens general manager Pierre Gauthier - presumably working hand-in-hand with owner and president Geoff Molson at this point - will have to make some tough decisions. The first and most important question is simply: "Is the Canadiens' season salvageable?"

What does salvageable mean in this instance? It means taking stock of everything that has gone on thus far, how players have played, how other teams in the East are looking, the health of the club's important players, and more, and then deciding whether or not management believes the group still has a realistic shot at climbing back into a playoff spot. The answer to this will go a long way to determine what will be best for the club over the next few months.

Yes, We Believe

Let's say after talking it through, Gauthier and Molson believe the team's record isn't reflective of their play, and with a couple of better bounces in the second half, they'll find themselves right in the thick of things. Perhaps the front office sees signs in a guy like Mike Cammalleri or P.K. Subban that their entire season isn't for naught, and that they will open 2012 on a tear. I mean after all, the team is only 3 points out of a playoff spot with 47 games to go (though all of those ahead have games in hand). What would this mean?

Well, if Brian Gionta and Scott Gomez are going to be out a while still (neither is skating yet), the club may be forced to trade for some offensive depth. If a deal is to take place, the team is likely to move some defensive depth and/or picks and prospects (yes, this is a scary possibility) for some immediate assistance. Yannick Weber, Chris Campoli, or - scariest thought of all - Alexei Emelin could be on the move with futures for a forward to fill on the Tomas Plekanec and Mike Cammalleri line. In any case, it is clear that the current make-up just isn't cutting it, so if there is belief that the team can turn it around, a shake-up via trade may be required. Such a move will necessitate another trade this coming summer at the latest since the team will need to free up some cap space to retain its young budding stars, but if they are going to try to make a run, there is no urgency to create the space during this season.

You Gotta Know When to Fold 'Em

The doom-and-gloom view, which is gaining in steam with every game the Habs drop, would give Gauthier the mandate to start trying to unload a big contract or two immediately. There was a lot of promise and hope coming into the season, but much has gone wrong since. Andrei Markov, who was initially expected to miss few if any games at the start of the season, looks to not be making his debut until February. Scott Gomez didn't miraculously rebound as many held out hope for and was quickly sidelined with an injury of his own. Snipers Mike Cammalleri and Brian Gionta struggled when healthy, each also missing a number of games. Despite collecting points, Tomas Plekanec has not looked like his usual fireplug self. P.K. Subban has been mired in a sophomore slump. Simply put, there were many question marks around the team coming into October and most of the answers have been negative.

That's ok. This happens to even teams with much better rosters than Montreal's this year. Look at the Philadelphia Flyers of 2006-07. Or the New Jersey Devils last year. So Tomas Kaberle hasn't been the magical powerplay band-aid that would put the team on the winning end of the 1-goal games they love to lose, and Randy Cunneyworth didn't instantly inspire a lengthy winning streak. What next?

Can the team afford to wait it out for Andrei Markov and hope what he brings to both the defense and powerplay will put the team on a winning track? If the organization decides today that the playoffs will be out of reach, it is important for the team's future that they begin to look at the 2012-13 season almost immediately. Which players have shown enough to be retained as part of a "core?" Which players/contracts is there currently a trade market for out there (and which will garner even more interest as the trade deadline approaches)? For the sake of cap space, at least one of Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta, Mike Cammalleri, and/or Tomas Kaberle must leave the organization. Preferably, a few of these players are dealt to pave way for a new regime. Easier said than done, as it requires finding a club that has cap space and is willing to take on one of these deals, but if the Habs don't see a future for them in Montreal, there should be interest in a Gionta or Cammalleri come February.

The club will also have to evaluate their pending UFAs. Come trade deadline, all of Andrei Kostitsyn, Travis Moen, Hal Gill, and Chris Campoli should produce reasonable returns if they are to be moved. That's a lot of chips in play for Mr. Gauthier, which is why it's never too soon to start making these decisions and evaluating possible moves. Plus, the sooner these able bodies are moved out for future assets, the likelier the team is to continue its tumble in the standings. A top two pick for Nail Yakupov or Mikhail Grigorenko may already be unrealistic, but drafting in the top 6-10 picks of each round will put the team in good shape to stock up on some top quality prospects in June.

In addition to moving out players, the team can also begin its man hunt for the new coaching and front office staff that will run the ship moving forward. If they've given up on a losing season, it's unlikely either Pierre Gauthier or Randy Cunneyworth will be around next Fall. If the team deems there is a top-flight candidate out there before the off-season, they may bring them in before this year's out to give them first-hand experience with the players that will stick around.

To be honest, Habs fans, while I always want to believe in this team and will support them win or lose, watching them from the opener in Toronto right up to last night's loss in Chicago, I see little hope for the Canadiens to squeak into a tightly contested Eastern Conference playoff spot at this point. It could happen, and I would be very happy if it did, but looking at things as of today, I would much rather see the team collect a few picks and young players for its aging has-beens and free up cap space to build around the likes of Carey Price, Max Pacioretty, and P.K. Subban. We're not talking about a lengthy re-build, just a little re-tooling. Certainly, I DON'T want to see the team trading away any promising younger players at this point. Rather, once the veterans are cleared out, give the likes of Alexei Emelin, Louis Leblanc, and Lars Eller greater responsibility to help them mature as NHL'ers so they can help to usher in the next generation starting next year. Unfortunately, I have significant doubts that the team's management will follow such a path. To admit defeat is to swallow one's pride, and I won't believe that they will move out the veterans until I see it with my own eyes.

I know all of this is a hard reality to face, but think of it this way: perhaps the moves coming from this lost season are just what the club needs to get over the hump in the near future and win that 25th Stanley Cup.

[I'll post my take on what the Habs should do from here on out on Monday, prior to the lifting of the freeze]

Is Pierre Gauthier the One to Blame?

Now I'm no fan of Pierre Gauthier's overall body of work in Montreal. I've called multiple times for Mr. Gauthier to be shown the door along with Jacques Martin and was highly critical of the defense he put together for the 2011-12 season, going as far as to call it inexcusable. When Andrei Markov was signed to a 3-year deal, I was highly skeptical, but chose to give Gauthier the benefit of the doubt, as undoubtedly he had far more information on Markov's health than I did.

But is the performance of the team this season related to a mismanagement of funds this past summer? Would the team be better on ice if he had acted differently the past 6 months? It has been suggested by some, over the past week, that had Gauthier done a better job, Jacques Martin may not have lost his job this week. In fact, I had a rather heated debate with a prominent member of the mainstream Montreal sports media who went as far as to assert that had the contracts given to Andrei Markov and Scott Gomez been spent differently (a total of more than $13M in cap space) by Gauthier and thus been "contributing" on ice, the team would be performing better and Martin would still be coach. "Agree with me or stop talking," the journalist concluded. "There is no other side to it."

Whether you like Gauthier or not, there's a few myths that must be debunked here. One is that spending more money necessarily improves your team or equates to results. Another is that it is an easy task to bring in top talent when you have the cap space to do so. And finally, that ridding the team of Gomez's salary could be accomplished on a whim.

Mo' Money, Less Problems?

There is no doubt that in today's NHL, cap space is a valuable asset. Thus, giving out big, multi-season contracts to risky or unproven players should be seen as a faux-pas. So let's say Gauthier had an extra $14M to spend because he hadn't given such a deal to Markov and he had found a way to rid the team of Gomez. Would spending this money elsewhere make for a better on-ice product?

The easy answer is "Yes." It's $14M that today isn't helping the team win (as it's on the shelf, or ineffective in the case of Gomez when he was healthy), and so mathematics would indicate that $0M + $14M gives a positive change.

But let's consider a few things here. First, as Habs fans, we've seen enough ill-conceived UFA signings to know that not every one is a good one. Even if there's cash to burn, signing a Sergei Samsonov or Georges Laraque did not help the club, serving as a distraction more than anything. Adding a player for the sake of hitting the cap - even if it does provide more depth - isn't guaranteed to improve results. The counter-argument is that this is a defeatist attitude. You can't assume that with money to spend, any signing would flop. But truthfully, it is not much more defeatist than assuming on the day of the signing that Markov would not be healthy or that Gomez wouldn't rebound.

Ask Columbus if the big contracts they gave out this summer have improved their club from last year. How about the Washington Capitals and their very busy off-season? The truth is, there weren't many top calibre options available via UFA last summer, and nor will there be this coming summer. No defenseman near Andrei Markov's ability changed teams on or shortly after July 1st, with the closest probably being Ed Jovanovski and Tomas Kaberle. As sad as it is, there were also few Scott Gomez replacements available, with the biggest names being Brad Richards, Tim Connolly, and Ville Leino. Would the Habs have been a better team this season with Jovanovski dressed instead of Raphael Diaz and Ville Leino in Lars Eller's slot? No one knows for certain, but I think it's obvious that the answer at least isn't a clear cut "Yes" after all.

(keep in mind, the argument here is about the present season and the job of Jacques Martin; I fully agree with those that would rather see the money used to extend Josh Gorges, Max Pacioretty, P.K. Subban, and Carey Price)

Who WOULDN'T Want to Play in Montreal?!

As just established, there weren't many names available on the free agent market, and when July 1 of 2012 roles around, the market is not much more plentiful (it starts to pick up the year after, assuming the world doesn't end in December 2012). But even this assumes that any and all available players would be willing to play in Montreal. We all know that this isn't necessarily the case, with taxes, pressure, non-contender status, and language/children schooling issues being prime reasons that keep some away. Montreal-bashing aside, you could pick any team/market in the league and there would be some players who wouldn't want to play there.

If you're not improving your roster through signings, how else can you spend money to do it? Well, you can make a trade. The thing about trading is, of course, you have to give to get. No Hab fans want to see this team sacrificing top draft picks and prospects for big contract veterans at this point, and even those moves are far from guarantees (see: Dustin Penner). The fact is, Gauthier did spend some of his spare cash by signing Chris Campoli during training camp, and then dealing for Tomas Kaberle a week and a half ago. It seems almost as though some are saying Gauthier should have just signed Kaberle instead of Markov last summer, but he has now managed to end up with both instead. If he had done that, and Kaberle had started the year here like he did in Carolina, fans would be in the streets enraged over another deal gone awry. And just imagine if, meanwhile, when Markov eventually does return, he plays like his old self. What if he did so in another market? Gauthier would need to enter the witness relocation program.

It is a myth that Gauthier is asleep at the wheel. He is a busy general manager, constantly looking for ways to improve the team. But the fact is, adding big name, big money talent that will help your team, even when you have the cap space to do so, is easier said than done.

It's Easy to Spend Someone Else's Money

Lastly, we arrive at the Scott Gomez factor. There is no Canadiens fan in the world that is happy to be saddled with his $7.357M cap hit for this season and the next two, including Pierre Gauthier. Like many, I hoped that Gauthier would find a taker for his contract this off-season, like perhaps the Florida Panthers or New York Islanders in their efforts to reach the salary cap floor. They both found more productive ways of doing it, though, so the Habs remained stuck with his deal.

Yes, there were ways to move Gomez that don't involve any other clubs. One would have been buying him out, which would have imposed a roughly $4M annual cap hit on the team for the remainder of Gomez's deal, plus a hit of $1.66M annually for 3 years to follow. This doesn't seem like the best way to spend money, not to mention that it would require an expanded budget from ownership to then be willing to spend that freed cap space. Unless the team had managed to woo Brad Richards to replace Gomez, paying a player millions of dollars intentionally NOT to play for your team is simply not smart management. Especially when no one was certain as to how David Desharnais and Lars Eller would fare down the middle this season.

The other option is to pass Gomez through waivers (he would go unclaimed) and then send him down to the Hamilton Bulldogs. From a fan's perspective, this is easily the best of the options, given that trading him would likely require sweetening the pot with a draft pick and that buying him out imposes the mentioned cap penalty. However, general managers work within budgets established in conjunction with team ownership. Considering that Gauthier was Bob Gainey's head of pro scouting when he went out and traded for Gomez (a deal I hated since day one, but at this point, we're talking about ancient history), meaning it was just as much his error as it was Gainey's, it would be a hard sell to convince your boss to not only pay him $7.5M, $5.5M, and $4.5M over this year and the next two to play in the American League, but then to give you and extra $7M to spend each of those seasons in improving your roster. From a business sense perspective, in Geoff Molson's shoes, it is understandable to ask Mr. Gauthier to find another way to deal with it or to find himself out of a job. Mr. Molson has in fact publicly stated that he is against sending Gomez to the AHL, whether you want to believe him or not. Sure, he also gave a vote of confidence to Jacques Martin and his staff, and yes, things do change, but there is no guarantee that his budget for the team will change with it.

I'm not saying Gomez's deal will forever be impossible to move, but if the Canadiens aren't going to be stuck with the Alaskan native until the summer of 2014, they're going to have to take some salary back. Here's hoping Gauthier can find a taker on a similar deal to the one Jim Rutherford got from him in order to rid the 'Canes of Kaberle's troublesome deal.

The Verdict

Is it Pierre Gauthier's fault that Jacques Martin was fired? I don't think Gauthier did the best job in putting together a top-flight team this season, but the fact is he spent all the money he could to ice a team of quality players. Are the injuries to Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta, Chris Campoli, and others Gauthier's fault? No. Certainly, those weren't predicable this summer.

The Markov contract has been and might continue to be a nightmare for the organization, but the fact is that there was no easy way to spend his $5.75M elsewhere that would have guaranteed a better club this year. We can only hope that he does eventually return in fine form.

The Gomez deal - particularly now with Kaberle in the fold - will prove problematic as the team is forced to give their young players raises this summer and the next. Undoubtedly, Gauthier will be forced to find a taker for one of Gomez, Gionta, Kaberle, or Mike Cammalleri, but for the present season, not only may Gauthier have had his hands tied in terms of options to get rid of the deal, but there were few veteran UFA centers on the market to replace him.

I strongly feel that Gauthier should and will be replaced prior to this June's Entry Draft, but I do think it unfair to lay all blame for this season's poor performance on him. Martin failed to get the most out of the veterans he had under contract - proven players and rookies alike - while employing an outdated defensive system. I'd push back with a question of would Martin have even lasted this long had Gauthier not signed Erik Cole, the Habs' top forward over the last 25 games. The GM's job is not an easy one, but just as Martin was deserving of the fate that befell him, so will be the Gainey-Gauthier regime when its time comes to an end.

"But... I Can Change!"

You've heard the line in response to breaking up with a mate. Or you saw it in a movie. Or maybe you've used it yourself. "I can change," is often a last resort when one knows that someone is unhappy with them. It doesn't really have much meaning. It's a desperate plea that says I will tell you everything you want to hear right now, but within a matter of days, everything will go back to just the way it was. Nothing will have actually changed.

Throughout the season, there have been repeated calls by Habs' fans for the heads of both head coach Jacques Martin and general manager Pierre Gauthier. Gauthier seemed to fire a warning shot at Martin when he canned his assistant coach and close personal friend Perry Pearn early in the season. This was unorthodox, as it is rare an assistant coach is singled out and fired mid-season while the bench boss remains in place. But Gauthier knew something had to happen or he and Martin would be the ones on the outs. Of course, this simple sacrificial lamb didn't satisfy the discontent masses.

"Moving forward, we will start to think outside the box," said Gauthier. I can change.

But what exactly has changed since October 26th? Sure, the team has strung together a few more wins. But with their capped out payroll, certainly they have sufficient talent in place - even with injuries - to win some hockey games. Erik Cole has emerged and led the team's still floundering powerplay. Not that Jacques Martin will ever own up to it being his mistake for keeping Cole off the PP to start the season, nor will he apologize publicly to reporter Jessica Rusnak for telling her to "do her research," when she asked about giving Cole time with the man advantage. But hey, things weren't working out. He, too, can change.

But can he really? Like a bad boyfriend, he seems to quickly slip back into his all too familiar habits. His communication with players seems as sparse as ever, preferring to quietly scribble in his notebook. He continues to be quick to throw the young guys under the bus, whether publicly in press conference or in terms of their ice time. He seems to have no tolerance for any sort of physical brand of hockey. Just when Alexei Emelin was coming out of his shell and becoming a force on the ice, a trade shifts him to his unfamiliar right side on defense, and one bad game sees him sitting in the press box. Back in the line-up last night due only to Raphael Diaz's illness, despite playing a very solid game, a -2 rating that was little fault of his own sees Martin limit him to 12:30 of ice time. And then there's Louis Leblanc, who on 2 occasions was expected to play on the third line with Lars Eller and Mathieu Darche/Travis Moen, but when the game's starting line-up was announced, it was Eller with Darche/Moen and Andrei Kostitsyn. I have no explanation for that. Kostitsyn was playing on a line with Tomas Plekanec and Mike Cammalleri, yet for opening puckdrop, he skates in Leblanc's place on the "third" unit.

What of last night for Leblanc, where he tied the game in the second period by scoring his first NHL goal, even after being dropped to center the fourth line? One would think his sound two-way play and the fact that he had potted one could earn him some more looks. Not the case, as he was benched for almost the whole third period, playing only 4:21 total on the night. The only time he and the fourth line got a shift? When the Habs were putting pressure on the Flyers to try to come back and tie the game up again, with about 10 minutes to play, after the club had earned an offensive zone face-off. Really Jacques? You send your fourth line out for that? It's almost like you were blatantly just trying to prove a point. Setting young guys up for failure, once again.

And what of Mr. Gauthier? The trading of Jaroslav Spacek for Tomas Kaberle may be the final nail in his coffin. This is not unexpected, as the Canadiens and their pro scouting department have a history of ignoring a player's recent performances, hoping they will somehow revert to their prime selves after being dealt to Montreal (we can go back historically for examples since the lockout, like Sergei Samsonov, Georges Laraque, Scott Gomez, and Janne Niinimaa). Kaberle the player is not the problem, of course, and I won't get into how Spacek is playing well on the Hurricanes' PP. But Gauthier has further handicapped a team that already had little flexibility because of numerous big contracts to underperforming supposed stars.

Can he change? Will he find a creative way to rid the team of the Scott Gomez burden, for example? Time will tell. But as of today, the only way I see real change coming about is if Geoff Molson steps forward, calls a spade a spade, and relieves the Gauthier-Martin duo of their responsibilities despite their plea for another chance. That, my friends, is what can reignite the spark in the highly abusive relationship between the Montreal Canadiens and their faithful followers.

Remember, remember the third of December

The question on the minds of Habs fans around the planet for weeks now has been just what/when will be the tipping point for Pierre Gauthier, Geoff Molson, or anyone else in the Habs' brass to signify that changes are needed... and fast.

The start of the season has been a difficult one for your Montreal Canadiens. Sure, injuries have been an issue, but most of the injuries the team has faced have been ones that should have been foreseeable this summer. The young defense put on the ice is improving, but still has major structural issues.

The bigger problem, though, has been the play of some of the forwards the team counts on to lead the way offensively. This starts right at the top with team captain Brian Gionta. The effort seems to be there, as it always has been with Gio. So then what's the problem? Is it an undisclosed injury? Off-ice issues? Just a prolonged slump? It isn't a matter of simply not scoring, but his overall game on the ice is simply not at the level we should expect of the 32-year old. When you're 5'7", unfortunately, no matter how established you are, you don't get the luxury of coasting through patches like this. Gionta has been a non-factor for quite some time, even though he's on pace for a similar point total to last season.

Speaking of producing but not being effective, we can next talk about #1 center Tomas Plekanec. It seem odd for me to lump the team's leading scorer into this "underperforming" category, but at $5M per season, Plekanec is looked at to be an offensive catalyst. He has been his usual positionally-sound self on the penalty kill, and has managed 21 points in 26 games, but he is unable to raise the game of his linemates, and has been far less noticeable than the likes of David Desharnais or Lars Eller lately, who have helped to create sustained pressure in the offensive zone and shift a game's momentum. Perhaps part of the blame could be placed on Jacques Martin for moving Pleks to the point on the powerplay, where he has looked tentative and probe to mistakes despite producing a couple of goals.

The final member of this group is Mike Cammalleri. He had a solid game last night after being shifted to the David Desharnais / Erik Cole line, but he has been very ineffective in most games. An injury may be at play here, but if it isn't, his total unwillingness to engage physically or to make necessary sacrifices to make plays has been unacceptable. In his final season in Calgary, Cammalleri scored 39 goals. His first year with the Habs saw him net 26 in 65 games, then last season 19 in 67 games. Prorating his goal total thus far this year would give him just under 19 in 66 games. Unacceptable for a player being paid $6M per year for his goal scoring talents.

You'll notice I left Scott Gomez off the list. I don't think it would have been right to expect much from him this summer based on last season's performance. It was more a case of hoping to be pleasantly surprised, which, even injuries aside, we haven't been.

If these are some of the problems, then what are the solutions that could come on what just might be D-Day tomorrow should the Habs lose to the Los Angeles Kings. I wrote yesterday about my desire to have Jacques Martin replaced, and quite possibly Pierre Gauthier along with him. Randy Carlyle becomes likely the most interesting name as a potential Martin replacement, with the major problem being his lack of French. I'd be a fan of bringing Carlyle in as head coach with a French associate coach to split duties (kind of like what the Edmonton Oilers did with Pat Quinn and Tom Renney), but not sure how realistic that is in the eyes of management, especially considering they are still paying Guy Carbonneau and would have to pay Martin off to end his deal.

But we don't know for certain how Geoff Molson feels. He may have full confidence in Gauthier's (and yes, even Martin's) ability to run this ship, and thus may give him plenty of rope to try to save the season and effectively his job.

That, then, could mean a trade. For those who don't read Twitter rumours, controversial Twitter figure Incarcerated Bob put out a Tweet last night along the same lines of rumours we've seen brewing for a few weeks. Bob had the Calgary Flames approaching captain Jarome Iginla about waiving his no trade clause on a framework deal that would send him to Montreal. Bob mentioned the names of Max Pacioretty, Yannick Weber, and the Canadiens' first round pick (plus a necessary salary dump) as possible pieces going to Calgary, with Iginla and more coming back in return. He suggested Iginla would likely require a few days to mull the idea over, though he was still dressed for the Flames' game last night. If you don't know iBob, he isn't quite Eklund. He isn't batting 1.000 (had Scott Gomez to the New York Islanders as a pretty sure thing this summer), but he has managed to break a number of stories correctly before any other mainstream media. The timing of the rumour is also interesting. The Anaheim Ducks went public yesterday, stating that with their coaching change, Bobby Ryan was taken off the trade market. It would be logical, then, that the Habs were in on Ryan, and with him no longer available, moved on to their next target. It is also interesting that, at the end of regulation time last night, Iginla had played only 15:42, far less than his second lowest total this season.

But, it's just a flimsy rumour at best right now. And of course, Habs fans would lynch Gauthier if he even considered dealing a young powerforward like Max Pacioretty. Iginla is a great player, and you have to give to get, but the Canadiens don't seem to be just one Iginla away from a Stanley Cup with the way they're playing right now. I would go as far as to say I wouldn't give up Pacioretty straight up for Iginla. The talk could become more interesting if Calgary's first round pick was coming back to Montreal, as that represents a top 5 potential lottery selection that could give the Canadiens the kind of superstar they haven't had since the days of Patrick Roy.

Why is tomorrow likely D-Day for the current team? Well it's hard to make changes in the middle of a road trip, and the Canadiens come back home following their afternoon'er in Los Angeles. That gives plenty of time that very day to announce anything that has already been set into motion, and then two days off to work any changes into the line-up. Plus, few teams not in the playoffs as of December 1st in a given season are able to rally to make it there, even with so many games left to be played. This is the nature of the parity in the league. And that's why we should expect changes. Changes bigger than bringing in Petteri Nokelainen or firing Perry Pearn.

Thus all signs point to December 3rd as a big day for the team and its fans where those in charge of the mess that has been this early season are held accountable for their actions. Remember, remember the third of December, as it may be a day that shapes the club's fate for the foreseeable future.

Are Jacques Martin's Days Numbered?

In what has been a bumpy ride of an early season for Habs fans, it has been a turbulent week league-wide for NHL head coaches. It started with Bruce Boudreau being let go by the Washington Capitals, largely due to a possible rift between him and star forward Alexander Ovechkin. Before the ink was dry on Dale Hunter's contract as the new Caps bench boss, the Carolina Hurricanes fired Paul Maurice to replace him with former Canadiens' assistant coach Kirk Muller.

But if that wasn't enough, shortly after the Anaheim Ducks handed a big loss to your Montreal Canadiens, their disappointing start cost head coach Randy Carlyle his job, returning Bruce Boudreau to bench boss of a National Hockey League club after only a couple of days.

Yet, despite repeated fan calls for Jacques Martin's head, he remains in charge of our team. Let's take a look at the record of these coaches this season:

Bruce Boudreau (Washington Capitals) - 12-9-1 in 22 GP (25 Pts)
Jacques Martin (Montreal Canadiens) - 10-11-4 in 25 GP (24 Pts)

Paul Maurice (Carolina Hurricanes) - 8-13-4 in 25 GP (20 Pts)

Randy Carlyle (Anaheim Ducks) - 7-13-4 in 24 GP (18 Pts)

But of course, a coaching decision shouldn't be made based on just 25 games. So how about these guys' records over their current tenure with their respective clubs prior to this year?

Bruce Boudreau (Washington Capitals) - 189-79-39 in 307 GP for a .705 win % (+ 2 playoff rounds won)
Randy Carlyle (Anaheim Ducks) - 266-168-57 in 492 GP for a .611 win % (+ 7 playoff rounds won, incl a Stanley Cup)
Jacques Martin (Montreal Canadiens) - 83-63-18 in 164 GP for a .568 win % (+2 playoff rounds won)

Paul Maurice (Carolina Hurricanes) - 108-87-26 in 221 GP for a .554 win % (+ 2 playoff rounds won)

Certainly, neither this season nor during their tenure do Jacques Martin's statistics jump out as significantly better than those of his colleagues. Now, I hear what you're saying. Montreal doesn't have the stacked roster that Boudreau gets to work with in Washington. The Canadiens don't have a Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, or Eric Staal leading their forces. That's fine and dandy. But drawing a parallel to the movie Moneyball, a coach without those assets must make the best of the position they are in. And THIS is where Jacques Martin has failed.

The Habs are not a "disadvantaged" team. They have the luxury have spending pretty well right up to the cap every year, and whether you like Pierre Gauthier's moves or not (disclaimer: I'm on the NOT side), he has brought in established talent that has been successful in other markets by spending all that he can.

But the Canadiens also haven't had the luxury of a top draft pick in years. Could they have done better than the guys they chose? Sure. Everyone will be quick to point out David Fischer over Claude Giroux, amongst other goof-ups. But when you're drafting outside the top 8 or 10, the entry draft is somewhat of a crapshoot where some gambles pay off and others do not.

The point here is that Martin has been given plenty of tools to ice a winning roster. He's had some fine young talent (P.K. Subban, Max Pacioretty, Carey Price, etc.) and a solid veteran leadership core. Through line-juggling, favoritism, and poor communication with is players, however, he has seen repeated criticisms for unexplained decisions and a lack of understanding between he and his skaters. Martin is an emotionless old hockey mind who doesn't seem to like to adapt his strategies and thought processes. He has a good understanding of the sport, and likes to rationally stick to his guns. This has translated to over-playing veterans (and frequently the same "safe," "responsible" types) and a mistrust towards new players, whether they be rookies, or has recently seen with Erik Cole, simply players new to the organization. It is downright strange that Martin never addresses players after calling a timeout. Fortunately, he had Kirk Muller and now, in the post-Perry Pearn days, Randy Cunneyworth, to do it for him.

But the head-scratching personnel moves (the benching, the combinations, the d-men at forward, etc.) have gotten to be too much. On paper, there is no doubt that with a slightly healthier defense, your Montreal Canadiens should be a playoff team. If Martin can't weather the storm, and/or the return of Andrei Markov doesn't provide the anticipated kick to the team's rear end, he and Mr. Gauthier should both start cleaning out their desks. Yes, Geoff Molson has remained relatively quiet on the issues the team is facing, but if a near capped out team can't earn him the significant revenues that come along with a post-season run this year, I have no doubt he will move to action. And maybe - just maybe - the Canadiens will finally add a star from this year's draft along the way. Brighter days are ahead, Habs fans, as the Gauthier-Martin era is undoubtedly coming to a close. Let's just hope there is already a security block in place preventing Gauthier from making any bold moves of dealing youth for short-term fixes to try to save his job.