Top 10 Offensive Forward Hab UFA Targets

Last Friday, I pointed out three areas where I felt the Canadiens need additions this summer in order to bounce back from a very difficult season.  Today and the next two Tuesdays I will look at the UFA class, suggesting the 10 best free agents fits for each of these three weaknesses.  We start today with the need for a top 6 player up front - someone ideally with some size and scoring punch.

Before we get to the names I did include on the list below, I have to preface it with three big names I left out.  First there's Teemu Selanne, for whom it is abundantly clear the choice is just between Anaheim and retirement.  Next there's Shane Doan who may be unlikely to leave Phoenix, but even if he does, it won't be for Montreal.  I'm quite confident that his alleged linguistic slur run-in with Denis Coderre who accused him of uttering anti-Francophone sentiments towards referees will keep him out of La Belle Province.  Finally, and perhaps most debate-ably, I didn't include Alexander Semin as a candidate.  Sure, he has the frame the Habs are looking for at 6'2" and 208 lbs, and yes, even in an off-year last season, he scored 54 points in 77 games.  But his attitude off the ice just doesn't strike me as the kind of player Marc Bergevin - a guy who fully endorses a team-first strategy - would be interested in signing.  He seems like a typical Pierre Gauthier / Bob Gainey acquisition.  A Sergei Samsonov UFA signing.  I don't see Bergevin biting.

Also note that you may consider some of my proposed contract offers to be on the low end.  This is because the list as a whole doesn't really impress me, so I'd rather see Montreal strikeout in this category than overpay for a guy they'll be stuck with when other names may be available in a future off-season or via trade.

With that said, let's get on to 10 players I think Bergevin might consider in a "wish list" of sorts.

10) Brad Boyes, C - Buffalo Sabres
6'1", 195 lbs - 2011-12: 65 GP, 8 G, 15 A, 23 PTS
Age 30

Boyes had phenomenal seasons in 2007-08 and 2008-09, with 43 and 33 goals respectively, but then his game mysteriously went south.  The Sabres thought a change of scenery might do him good when they dealt for him last season, but his first full year in Buffalo produced only 23 points - the lowest total of his career.  Is now the time to take a chance on a possible reclamation project?  He isn't a particularly top notch skater, nor does he always use his frame as well as he should, but he's adapted his game to be a hard-working two-way forward, and perhaps if the NHL goes back to a post-lockout obstruction and interference standard, he'll find the kind of success he once knew.

Contract offer: 1 year, $2M cap hit


9) Kristian Huselius, LW - Columbus Blue Jackets
6'1", 185 lbs - 2011-12: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PTS
Age 33

After being limited to 39 games in 2010-11, Huselius managed only 2 games last season, so any possible suitor will have his health as a primary concern.  In those 39 games, the large and speedy winger impressively potted 14 goals, while in his last near-full season in 2009-10, he totaled 63 points to rank third on the Blue Jackets.  If - and it's a big if - he's given a clean bill of health, he could be one of the better fits on the market, likely seeking a short-term contract to prove himself which would be rather low-risk from a Habs' perspective.

Contract offer: 1 Year, $2.5M cap hit


8) Jiri Hudler, C - Detroit Red Wings
5'10", 186 lbs - 2011-12: 81 GP, 25 G, 25 A, 50 PTS
Age 28

The Red Wings have plenty of cap space available to keep any of their players they'd like, so for Hudler to leave it would likely be the player himself seeking a new challenge.  Hudler is the smallest guy on this list, but with such a limited talent pool, it would be impossible to leave a 28-year old 25-goal scorer off of it.  He lacks in strength and consistency, but has slick hands and is a countrymate of Tomas Plekanec, with the two having played on the same World Junior Championship club in 2001-02.  Like Boyes, in addition to center, Hudler is comfortable at either wing position, so perhaps a line of he, Plekanec, and Erik Cole might have potential to balance Montreal's offense aside from the Max Pacioretty - David Desharnais duo.

Contract offer: 3 years, $4M cap hit


7) David Jones, RW - Colorado Avalanche
6'2", 220 lbs - 2011-12: 72 GP, 20 G, 17 A, 37 PTS
Age 27

Jones was unable to replicate his 27 goals and 45 points of a year ago, but did manage a second consecutive 20-goal season, proving that he can score in the right situation.  He's a bit more of an off-the-radar candidate than the other names on this list, but has one of the more imposing physiques and at 27 likely still has better days ahead of him.  He can bring a physical element to the game, moves well enough for a big man, and has a quick release.  Not a textbook top 6 forward, but might not look out of place beside David Desharnais so that the Canadiens could experiment pairing Erik Cole with Tomas Plekanec.

Contract offer: 3 years, $3M cap hit


6) Ryan Smyth, LW - Edmonton Oilers
6'1", 192 lbs - 2011-12: 82 GP, 19 G, 27 A, 46 PTS
Age 36

After requesting a trade from the Kings so he could return to Edmonton (based on on-ice reasons, this certainly looks a little silly right now), one would think it was a foregone conclusion that Smyth would re-sign with the Oilers.  And yet, there is talk that even though the team could use a veteran presence around its group of promising youngsters, that they may opt to part ways from Smyth and look in a different direction.  Smyth isn't an Erik Cole; he's nearing the end of his career and after a red hot start to last season, went out with a whimper.  But he is a big body capable of putting up some points, and if he's willing to leave Alberta, like Jones, could give the Canadiens some flexibility in perhaps freeing Max Pacioretty or Erik Cole from David Desharnais's hips by providing another big option and thus giving Tomas Plekanec some better linemates.

Contract offer: 1 year, $4M cap hit


5) Olli Jokinen, C - Calgary Flames
6'3", 210 lbs - 2011-12: 82 GP, 23 G, 38 A, 61 PTS
Age 33

At 33, Jokinen's heydays with the Florida Panthers are a thing of the past.  But the Finnish forward has had a bit of a resurgence in Calgary the last two seasons, recording 54 and 61 points respectively.  He's not the #1 center the team needs and isn't particularly gritty, but he brings a 6'3", 210 lbs frame, and is capable of filling a second line role.  If the team is interested in him - and I do think they should be at the right price - it would likely mean Lars Eller shifting to the wing on a second or third line.  Eller most recently played and starred there for Team Denmark at the World Hockey Championship.

Contract offer: 2 years, $4M cap hit


4) Andrei Kostitsyn, RW - Nashville Predators
6'0", 205 lbs - 2011-12: 72 GP, 16 G, 20 A, 36 PTS
Age 27

That Kostitsyn ranks so highly on this list is a testament to the lack of talent in the free agent pool this summer, but in truth, it is his departure which - in part - creates this need in Montreal's line-up.  If people will stop holding where he was drafted against him, they would see a thick forward with one heck of a release.  He can play physical when the mood strikes him, but certainly he adds to the club's goal-scoring potential.  Does he want to come back to Montreal?  That may be a moot point, as his post-season team suspension for violating curfew may stand in too much of a contrast with Bergevin's team ahead of anyone player philosophy.  But on the ice, he would undoubtedly improve the roster, and he's still well in his prime.

Contract offer: 4 years, $3.8M cap hit


3) Jaromir Jagr, RW - Philadelphia Flyers
6'3", 240 lbs - 2011-12: 73 GP, 19 G, 35 A, 54 PTS
Age 40

One year ago, at this time, Jaromir Jagr was the #1 name on my free agent wish list, just ahead of one Erik Cole.  Jagr performed pretty well as I had expected him to, but falls two spots as another year of strain on his body doesn't help the situation, and the Habs look a little further from contention today than they did last June.  Still, if the Canadiens lack scoring and want to add a powerplay threat, then Jagr is a fit, especially considering they won't have to commit big dollars over long-term to bring him in.  His role would have to be monitored carefully, playing with Tomas Plekanec at 5-on-5, but not taking every shift on that line, swapping for a defensive forward when Pleks is out there in a more shutdown capacity.  This would keep Jagr fresher for the PP and other offensive situations, while limiting his minutes to prevent late-season fatigue that we saw notably in this year's playoffs.

Contract offer: 1 year, $4M cap hit


2) Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau, RW - New York Islanders
6'0", 193 lbs - 2011-12: 80 GP, 18 G, 49 A, 67 PTS
Age 29

Parenteau gets instant consideration as a French-speaking native of Hull, Quebec, with Bergevin indicating that he sees it important to try to increase the local content on the Canadiens over time.  But he's earned being among the more interesting names in a shallow pool this summer with his late-blooming production.  He began his first complete NHL season at the late age of 27 after a successful AHL career and immediately put up 53 points when gifted with talented linemates in Long Island.  He improved to 67 points last year, and would be another flexible option who could move up and down the Montreal line-up depending on the play of Rene Bourque and Brian Gionta.

Contract offer: 3 years, $3.75M cap hit


1) Zach Parise, LW - New Jersey Devils
5'11", 185 lbs - 2011-12: 82 GP, 31 G, 38 A, 69 PTS
Age 27

Parise will undoubtedly be the most-coveted forwards this summer if he makes it to July 1st without re-signing.  The New Jersey Devils's captain currently playing in the Stanley Cup Final doesn't have the size Montreal is looking for - one of only two names on this list under six feet - but is a big-time scorer with four 30-goal seasons and one 40-goal season over the past six years.  At 27, Parise is likely looking for a long-term contract, which would mean he'd be around long enough to play with the big center Montreal hopefully picks up in the first round of this year's draft.  Until then, he can play with Tomas Plekanec and a bigger winger, allowing Brian Gionta to line up next to Lars Eller in creating three solid scoring lines.

Contract offer: 7 years, $6.75M cap hit

What Happened on Deadline Day

What a whirlwind yesterday was. Well, as much of a whirlwind as watching paint dry for much of the day can be anyway.

Ladies and gentlemen, the 2011-12 NHL trade deadline has come and gone with a whimper rather than much of a bang. The players in the Canadiens organization will remain with the team at least until June, and no new NHL faces will be brought in.

In the hours that followed, there was great frustration and anger among Hab fans at what was perceived as an underwhelming day for general manager Pierre Gauthier. Let's break it down by looking at what did and didn't happen.

The Moves That Were Made

The Habs got the ball rolling yesterday by completing the day's first transaction, sending Andrei Kostitsyn to the Nashville Predators for a 2013 2nd round pick and the cancellation of the conditional 5th rounder they had given the Preds in the Hal Gill deal.

Reaction to the move was negative for the most part. Many did not want Kostitsyn to be dealt, hoping the team would be able to re-sign him. A player with reasonable size, capable of throwing hits, and skilled enough to score 20 goals even in Montreal is not all that easy to replace. And even if you can find such a player, he would likely cost you as much or more than Kostitsyn's new contract will pay him, even after his impending UFA raise.

But even those that did want to deal him before risking losing him for nothing - for the most part - expected more of a return. I had suggested previously that I expected Kostitsyn to be worth little more than a 2nd round pick, citing few comparables having been dealt this season as a caution against overvaluing him. The market was perhaps set by a deal on Saturday that sent Wojtek Wolski from the New York Rangers to the Florida Panthers for a third round pick and minor leaguer Mike Vernace. At 6'3", Wolski has a bigger frame than Kostitsyn, but has struggled even more with his consistency. Even this season, he was forced to spend 6 games in the American Hockey League as the Rangers were unsatisfied with his play and lacked a roster spot for him. Last season, Wolski scored 35 points in 73 games (.48 PPG) compared to Kostitsyn's 45 in 81 (.56 PPG). On their careers, 26-year old Wolski totals 250 points in 404 games (.62 PPG) while 27-year old Kostitsyn has 210 points in 379 games (.55 PPG). Reasonably even, though Wolski's recent decline would make me believe Kostitsyn's value was slightly higher in the scoring winger market. A 2nd round pick, then, seems like absolutely fair value.

So why are people upset? Because the same Nashville Predators gave up their first round selection to acquire fourth line center Paul Gaustad. Like Kostitsyn, Gaustad will be a UFA on July 1st, and is 3 years older. His career high is just 36 points, totaling 181 over 479 games. Could the Habs not have extracted a bigger premium from the Preds - a team that lacks scoring punch - for the Belarusian forward? All else equal, Kostitsyn appears to be the better player and thus should carry the greater value, but comparing them is virtually apples and oranges.

Gaustad is a 6'5" centerman, adept in the face-off circle. No one would confuse him for being an overly physical player, but he can take the body and drop the gloves at times. He's the type of guy teams go to war with. He won't earn as much money on his new contract as Kostitsyn, but there are likely to be far more teams in line to acquire his services. And that is likely what it came down to on deadline day. Supply and demand. Few teams called the Canadiens about Kostitsyn, while Buffalo was taking offers on Gaustad right till the last minute.

Is this at all Gauthier's fault? Maybe. Certainly it's a popular theory that the man who still runs the Canadiens' ship (the Tony Marinaro story about Geoff Molson calling the shots was basically completely disproven yesterday since Molson was with the players in Fort Lauderdale while Gauthier, Bob Gainey, and Larry Carriere set up a war room to deal with trades in Tampa) does not extract maximal value for his assets. We don't know what went on behind the scenes, but it's possible Gauthier only spoke with a handful of teams about Kostitsyn, rather than aggressively pawning his wares a la Brian Burke. That a deal was worked out with the Predators seems very convenient given the rumours linking the teams and the recent Gill trade.

The other move was the claiming of tough guy Brad Staubitz off re-entry waivers from the Minnesota Wild. Staubitz is a 27-year old 6'1", 210 lbs, right-handed enforcer who can play either left wing or left defense. Certainly not known for his hands, he has scored just 8 goals and 18 points over 196 NHL games to date. He has also racked up 432 penalty minutes in that span, undoubtedly the reason the Canadiens brought him in. Trying to get tougher? Not exactly, said Pierre Gauthier. But trying to find a balance in the line-up to compensate for the smaller, younger players who have established themselves in the line-up.

Since he was claimed on re-entry waivers, the Canadiens are only responsible for half off Staubitz's cap hit this season, meaning $287,500. Not that it really matters anyway, with the team far from the cap at this point in the season and Staubitz to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1st. Consider this an audition for the enforcer role; if he gels well, perhaps he figures into the longer-term plans, but if not, nothing lost.

What Didn't Happen

In all honesty, it was a strange, strange day. For the number of players said to be available, very few deals were actually reached. I'm not speaking just about blockbuster moves like Rick Nash either. For some reason, teams that seemed to have few reasons not to move pending free agents or to the contrary to add depth chose not to do so, standing pat.

Why did it play out like that? All accounts seem to indicate that, early in the day anyway, the prices so-called sellers set for their players were far too high. Looking at the returns teams got in the days leading up to Monday, I wouldn't say that's far off. Teams may have been scared away from renting players at the risk of mortgaging too many future assets. But wouldn't supply and demand indicate that as buyers left the market and the deadline approached, the price for players would drop and most players would eventually be moved? Particularly speaking in the case of pending unrestricted free agents? Were the teams holding these players just too stubborn to budge, costing their teams entry draft picks in the process?

Did this happen to...

Jaroslav Spacek in Carolina?

Jason Blake in Anaheim?

Dustin Penner in Los Angeles?

David Jones in Colorado?

Sheldon Souray in Dallas?

Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau in New York?

Mikhail Grabovski in Toronto?

or Chris Campoli in Montreal?

I can't imagine there weren't offers out there for every one of these players, and yet they didn't move. The same could be said for non-UFA players rumoured to be on the market like Steve Ott, Derek Roy, or Roman Hamrlik. Lots of chatter in the media and on Twitter, but little action.

In some cases, these teams may still have playoff aspirations and thus are willing to risk losing the players for nothing. In other cases, the teams may be holding on to hope that they will be able to re-sign the player before July 1st. But so many names staying put indicates to me that something else may be up.

So what is that something? I'd suggest there is a changing of attitudes around the league now with management teams fully adjusted to the realities of the current collective bargaining agreement (just in time to hopefully reach a new one this summer). Teams may be understanding that proper management is no longer about spending mid or late picks on depth players at the deadline. The best way to run a team is to hold on to those picks and use them plus quality depth free agent signings to build a filled-out organization from the ground up. Teams are more often filling holes - even temporary ones - with their younger players, hoping to speed up their maturity by putting them into pressure situations, allowing them to gain valuable NHL experience, and at the same time enjoying cheap and talented roster plugs.

For an example of this, look no further than perennial contenders the Detroit Red Wings and their highly acclaimed general manager Ken Holland. Traditionally, Detroit might have sacrificed some lower tier prospects or late picks to add a couple of veterans for the playoff push. Sure, this year, they dealt a first rounder to repatriate Kyle Quincey, but he's only 26 and will be an RFA this summer - sticking around to help fill a bit of the hole on defense should Nicklas Lidstrom and/or Brad Stuart not return next season. But what did they do on deadline day itself? The Wings were involved in only a single deal and that was to actually trade AWAY veteran blueliner Mike Commodore to the Tampa Bay Lightning for a return that is likely to amount to nothing at all. Consistent with this theory, in speaking to the media, Holland was quickly to point to 23-year old defenseman Brendan Smith as ready to be pressed into service for Detroit down the stretch and into the post-season.

So maybe... just maybe... there were no teams interested in taking Campoli on deadline day. Perhaps teams would rather play their own Brendan Smiths or Frederic St. Denis or whoever they may have in their own system. Certainly it's possible that the general quietness of the day was caused just by a lack of sellers combined with a weak unrestricted free agent class to come this summer, and we may see more deals next February, but I would still expect the trend of fewer depth rentals to continue.

Evaluating the Day

Looking at Gauthier's work yesterday, I found myself somewhat underwhelmed. To be fair, Gauthier had few assets to deal with, as injuries to Travis Moen and Mathieu Darche tied his hands to an extent, while players like Brian Gionta and Andrei Markov being out may have also limited some avenues he could have explored.

I started Monday morning with two goals in mind: first to acquire an additional 1st round pick in 2012, and second to find a taker for Tomas Kaberle's contract. Unfortunately, neither came to pass. I would have loved to see the team add additional picks for Campoli or a guy like Petteri Nokelainen (who must have been worth SOMETHING if Gaustad and a 4th was equal to a first), or generally anyone who wasn't seen as part of the long-term plan (Hi Yannick Weber). But it didn't happen. A big concern for me is that players like Kaberle and Nokelainen are easiest to move at the deadline. Come summer time, there will be plenty of equal calibre (or superior) options available to teams on the free agent market, meaning no one is likely to offer up assets to take them from the Canadiens. It is frustrating that it may then be 9-12 months before Montreal can rid themselves of Kaberle's big contract.

So I found myself underwhelmed and frustrated. But unhappy? Not necessarily. I am pleased that the team holds their own first plus two second rounders for the coming draft, and their first plus three 2nd rounders in 2013. Not having drafted in the second round the past 3 years, the Canadiens system was pretty bare this season, and it will be a great time to restock. Sure, it's true that second round picks are not guaranteed to be future NHLers, but they also have the potential to be impact players. Plus one or more of the picks could be used to move up in a draft or to acquire other young players. So I find myself cautiously optimistic about the team's future on the prospect end, hoping for a top 3 pick this June to add an impact player to the roster in the near future. For the remainder of the present season, let's just keep hoping to remain in a lottery pick position, and to enjoy watching a Toronto Maple Leaf implosion.

What Yesterday's Trade Means for Habs

Let's talk about yesterday. I'll save you the painstaking process of reading more about another embarrassing home loss, this one by a 3-0 score at the hands of the Dallas Stars. Could this one be blamed on a flu virus running rampant through the dressing room? Perhaps in part, with Tomas Plekanec sitting out due to illness, David Desharnais said to have been sick all weekend, and Mathieu Darche unable to finish the game because of his symptoms. But either way, the Canadiens Bell Centre record fell to 11-14-8 on the season despite playing in what is considered one of the best - if not the best - home rinks in the league. With Tampa Bay and Buffalo posting wins last night, and Winnipeg picking up a loser point, the Canadiens took another step towards a lottery pick with their dismal effort, currently in position to draft fourth overall, with Carolina just one point behind them and holding a game in hand (plus the tiebreaker). Simply put, it was a good night for the Blow for Grigorenko campaign.

Enough about that right now. The focus this week is primarily on General Manager Pierre Gauthier and what he may or may not do in the time leading up to the trade deadline, as it should be. Playoffs are out of reach; the important thing now is to be building for next season and beyond. In that light, Twitter was abuzz with Hab-related Tweets following a three team transaction. If you missed it, here is the move as it went down:

Colorado sent defenseman Kyle Quincey to the Tampa Bay Lightning in return for pesky forward Steve Downie; the Lightning then sent Qunicey to the Detroit Red Wings in return for Detroit's 2012 first round pick and - for contract limit reasons only - minor league defenseman Sebastien Piche.

Let's start with a little background. Quincey, if you'll recall, was originally a Red Wings draft pick. He was considered a solid prospect, but eventually lost out the in numbers game, unable to crack a deep Detroit blueline. As such, the Wings had to place him on waivers, where he was claimed by Los Angeles, and eventually traded to Colorado. Yes, you read that right. Detroit waived him. 3 and a half years ago. And yesterday gave up a first round pick to get him back. Imagine if Pierre Gauthier made such a move; Habs fans would lynch him. Yet Ken Holland was being praised by some for acquiring an underrated player who could help to fill a gap if Brad Stuart opts to leave Detroit as an unrestricted free agent this summer. (that's not a jab at Holland; more so one at Habs fans, who need to relax and understand that circumstances change over time)

If Piche's name sounds somewhat familiar to you, it's because he was invited to Habs' rookie camp back in 2007, but was never offered a contract. He was never drafted, and since signing a deal with the Wings as a free agent, has bounced between the AHL and ECHL. Nothing to see there.

Many fans were quick to take this trade and jump to conclusions about the worth of some Canadiens players that may be on the market. If Kyle Quincey could be dealt first for Steve Downie and then for a late first round pick, then surely there must be a market for Chris Campoli or Tomas Kaberle. If Downie was indirectly worth a first round pick, then a guy who plays a similar role but is better in the locker room like Travis Moen should be worth the same if he were healthy. And a much more skilled forward like Andrei Kostitsyn is likely worth even more!

Not so fast - let's not get carried away. The cases are completely different. Both Quincey and Downie are set to become just restricted free agents this summer, meaning that they are assets beyond the next 20 games plus playoffs. Downie is only 24 and has a 20-goal season under his belt. He plays with an edge and can drop the gloves. He was phenomenal in the playoffs last year, scoring 14 points in 17 games. The downsides, of course, are that he crosses the line at times, having received numerous suspensions, and has been rumoured to be a poor teammate. His offensive numbers to date may be inflated by having Steven Stamkos and/or Vincent Lecavalier as centers. That Quincey would be worth as much as Downie, or worth a first round pick, was surprising to many, and may say something about the demand for defensemen - always hot commodities at this time of year. But he's also only 26, has good size at 6'2" and 206 lbs, and has had seasons of 38 and 29 points, with 23 in 54 games this season.

Moen, Kostitsyn, and Campoli are all pending unrestricted free agents, meaning their value should be pegged to other rentals rather than younger or contracted players.

For Moen, if he were healthy, the closest comparable seems to be Dominic Moore. Some 5 days ago, the Lightning traded Moore and a 7th round pick to San Jose for a 2nd. For what Moore brings in face-off ability, Moen compensates with size and toughness, plus whereas Moore was having a subpar season, Moen might have set career highs if he stayed off the IR. Thus, I would say Moen's value is slightly higher than Moore's, in all likelihood worth a mid-to-late 2nd round pick by himself, and *perhaps* a tad bit more. He isn't Downie, and wouldn't get a 1st from anybody. Of course, there is a good chance that with his injury, he stays with the Canadiens. Then we'd just have to hope he can come to terms on an agreeable contract with Gauthier so as not to lose him for no return in July.

For Campoli, I do agree that the prices paid for d-men thus far would indicate that someone is probably willing to part with *something* for his services. The Quincey trades, however, have nothing to do with setting a value for him. There are many pending-UFA defensemen that teams could opt for over Campoli, meaning the Canadiens are not in a position of strength when it comes to brokering a deal. Even after the moves they've made thus far, looking at the Tampa Bay Lightning's roster alone, pending free agents Brett Clark and Matt Gilroy are likely to generate as much buzz as the much-malgined Habs' defenseman. No, not every team has quite as many players to offer up, but if you got excited thinking Montreal might end up with as much as a third round pick for Campoli, then a reality check is likely to come (though crazier things HAVE happened).

Kostitsyn is easily the toughest of the three to gauge at this point, as it is hard to find comparables who have been moved. Alexei Ponikarovsky was dealt for a 4th round pick a few weeks ago, but his play has declined the past few seasons, so surely Kostitsyn is worth considerably more at this point. A 6'0" (but thick) goal-scoring winger who can play physical at times and, having just turned 27, with many productive seasons ahead (though as a pending UFA, they are no guarantee to any club) should draw some interest from around the league. In fact, the Canadiens would be wise to attempt to get him signed since replacing the skill set he brings would likely cost a bigger cap hit on the free agent market this summer. But if that's not to be, and/or if they are done with waiting for his inconsistencies to normalize, then he must be moved before the team loses him for nothing this summer. So perhaps we can get a value estimate by looking at the 2011 deadline. Former Hab Chris Higgins was having a similar season to Kostitsyn's when he was dealt to Vancouver last year, and the Canucks ponied up a 3rd round selection and a reasonable prospect in defenseman Evan Oberg. Dustin Penner has been similarly inconsistent over his career, but had already scored 21 goals by the time he was dealt last season, returning 1st and 3rd round selections, along with prospect Colton Teubert. The Buffalo Sabres gave up a 2nd round pick to acquire Brad Boyes, a player softer than Kostitsyn, but who had already scored 41 points by deadline time (compared to Kostitsyn's 24), has 40- and 30-goal seasons on his resume, and had one more year remaining on his contract.

So what is Kostitsyn worth? Likely somewhere in the middle of all of that. I think the return Boyes got is probably the closest, meaning the Habs might be able to get a 2nd round pick for him. Perhaps add a decent prospect to that, but not likely more. Fans dreaming of a 1st round pick ++ are likely doing just that - dreaming.

So in short, what did yesterday's trade mean for the Habs? Not a whole lot. With players like Hal Gill and Pavel Kubina being moved, we have some indication of what the market value for d-men is, but there are many dominoes left to fall between now and Monday.

Habs Trade Talk - Who's Next to Go?

Montreal Canadiens General Manager Pierre Gauthier shocked Habs fans earlier this month when he pulled sniper Mike Cammalleri out of a game against the Boston Bruins as a deal sending him to the Calgary Flames had been completed. In making the trade, Gauthier was clearly thinking about the future, as the Flames got the best overall player in the deal in Cammalleri. But Rene Bourque's cap hit comes in at $2.67M less per year, and Gauthier upgraded a 5th round pick to a 2nd in the process. This is the kind of trade that seldom goes unfollowed (one exception being the trading of Craig Rivet for Josh Gorges and the pick that became Max Pacioretty a few years back), and so it is likely that a number of other veterans will leave the city between now and the February 27th trade deadline. Here we look at the players most likely to follow Cammalleri out the door:

1) Hal Gill

It's hard not to love Hal Gill. The friendly giant has been a welcome presence in the Habs' locker room the last few seasons, serving as a quality mentor for younger players and the star of nearly every funny "Get to Know Your Canadiens" PR video. But it is clear that Gill's best days are increasingly far behind him as the 36-year old has struggled to keep up with the pace of play at 5-on-5 this season. Still, he is no small part as to why the Canadiens are tied for the best penalty killing efficacy in the league with the New Jersey Devils at 89.2%. For this skill alone, plus his Stanley Cup-winning experience, Gill is likely to draw interest from a number of teams hoping to contend prior to his becoming an unrestricted free agent this summer. Demand for his services will heat up as the deadline approaches, but early rumours have linked him to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, and Philadelphia Flyers. The expected return is likely to be a 2nd or 3rd round pick, or prospect of similar value.

2) Chris Campoli

Campoli is the second most likely player to leave the city within the next month as he certainly won't fit into the team's plans beyond this season. A late training camp UFA signing, Campoli went down with an injury in the season opener and hasn't looked particularly good since returning, struggling to stay in the line-up. The only reason he wouldn't be traded is if the Canadiens can't find a taker, but there is typically a market for experienced, mobile d-men on cheap, one-year contracts. When he is moved, not much will be expected back. It is more likely he is dealt for a late round pick (4th-7th) than he is packaged for something better. Possible suitors include the San Jose Sharks and Philadelphia Flyers.

3) Travis Moen

Like Gill, Moen is a locker room leader and has performed above and beyond expectations throughout the majority of his contract in Montreal. Signed to be a third or fourth line big body, Moen has been forced into top 6 roles on a regular basis and has always given a consistent effort. With 9 goals and 16 points already in 46 games this season, the 29-year old is well on pace to set career highs in production, sure to increase his value on the open market as a UFA this summer. Thus, if Gauthier can't ink him to a deal before the deadline, he should be shipped out for the best possible return, sure to be a draw after playing an integral part in Anaheim's Stanley Cup win in 2007. A second or third round pick would not be out of the question for Moen (see the price Gauthier paid for Dominic Moore in 2010) with destinations being any playoff team lacking forward depth (think San Jose Sharks, Pittsburgh Penguins, Nashville Predators, or Los Angeles Kings).

4) Andrei Kostitsyn

The final member of this group of four significant pending unrestricted free agents, Kostitsyn is perhaps the most likely to be re-signed. A product of Montreal's own system, a lack of consistency has meant that Kostitsyn has never lived up to his pre-draft billing that had the Canadiens select him 10th overall in a stacked 2003 1st round. Still, he is a thick, 6'0", goal-scoring winger who is capable of delivering bone-crunching hits when he feels like being physical and could look like one of the game's most skilled forwards if you assembled a reel of only his highlight-calibre markers. Proper asset management would indicate Gauthier must speak with Kostitsyn's agent as soon as possible, and if the two sides aren't heading for a deal, send Kostitsyn out at the deadline and worry about replacing him later on. He is a good fit as a top 9 forward in Montreal, but could likely land a 2nd round pick and good prospect from a team that wants to add some punch for the playoffs. An obvious fit might be the Nashville Predators where Kostitsyn could join his younger brother Sergei, though low scoring playoff teams like the New York Rangers, New Jersey Devils, Florida Panthers, or Los Angeles Kings could equally put offers forward.

These are the most obvious players to be dealt in the near future, but it isn't unforeseeable that Gauthier looks to move some bodies who are contracted beyond this season as well. Here are some who might see their time in Montreal cut short:

5) Tomas Kaberle

If Andrei Markov returns to the Canadiens line-up some time in early or mid February (a big question mark at this point as it doesn't appear he has even resumed skating as of yet), then Kaberle may have served as just a quick stop-gap with the team. Undoubtedly, he has worked out better in Montreal than he did in Carolina, with his 11 points in 19 games here projecting to 47 over a full season. But in most games, he has played sparingly at even strength on a bottom pairing, while also failing to single-handedly revive the dormant Habs' powerplay. On a team full of big, tough defensive blueliners, Kaberle's salary for his production might not be a problem, but with a healthy Markov, Raphael Diaz, P.K. Subban, and perhaps Yannick Weber in Montreal for the next few seasons, the remaining 2 years on Kaberle's deal at $4.25M per will be a salary cap burden. The question then becomes whether or not the 33-year old blueliner is tradeable after the Canadiens were suckered into taking on his contract out of desperation. His output has increased the odds of finding a taker, with the New Jersey Devils and St. Louis Blues being examples of playoff teams with some cap flexibility whose powerplays could use a new look.

6) Tomas Plekanec or David Desharnais

It wasn't long ago that including Plekanec's name on this list would have made me certifiably insane, but Desharnais's strong play has made moving one of the two centers a real possibility. The Habs need to upgrade down the middle by adding a true #1 pivot at the top end. Relying on small players like Plekanec and Desharnais to center the two primary offensive units is not a good formula, and it remains unclear whether Lars Eller can contribute enough to move up off the third line on a regular basis. Thus, an ideal formation would be a player like Ryan Getzlaf on the first line, one of Plekanec or Desharnais with big wingers on the second, and Eller centering a competent third trio. Despite his big contract, there are sure to be teams interested in Plekanec's responsible two-way game. His intensity and level of play have dipped this year, but he is a proven NHL vet under contract long-term and could be dealt in a package for the "upgrade" the team is seeking. Recent rumours have linked him to a possible deal (among other assets) with New Jersey for Zach Parise, dependent on Parise signing an extension. Desharnais, on the other hand, has much smaller value, but his worth may be as high as it will ever be as the diminutive center is having a breakout season offensively. He has shown great chemistry with Max Pacioretty and Erik Cole offensively, which is both a reason to keep him, and perhaps a reason to move him since it ties up the club's two top wingers (since Desharnais would have to line-up between big bodies to be most effective). His cheap contract could make him an interesting asset and with another small forward in prospect Brendan Gallagher sure to make his Montreal debut before long, the team may explore their options with DD - something I would entirely endorse. As one of the few native French-speakers on the club, however, if I had to put money on the line, I'd wager he stays, if for language reasons alone.

7) Yannick Weber

The struggles of Montreal's powerplay have been well-documented this season; so much so that many overlook Weber's 4 powerplay markers, ranking 2nd on the club behind Erik Cole's 7. Weber appeared to have a job to lose coming into training camp this season with Andrei Markov's injury, but he was outplayed by countryman Raphael Diaz defensively, meaning Weber has been in-and-out of the lineup in a swingman role occasionally playing the wing 5-on-5. There is some redundancy to having both Weber and Diaz - similar players - in the line-up, and it makes for a small and soft overall group of blueliners when both play on the back end. Though Weber has been the better of the two on the powerplay, the Canadiens appear higher on Diaz, and Weber - having been in North America since the 2006-07 season - has the better name and reputation league-wide, likely making him the more tradeable asset. Alone, he might not fetch more than a mid-round pick, but he may be used as a chip in a bigger package to address a need.

8) P.K. Subban

Now, understand that I highly doubt Pierre Gauthier would trade P.K. Subban, and in general I would be strongly against the move. But there are reasons his name has been floating on the rumour mill this season. He seems to have somewhat worn out his welcome with guys who were his buddies in the locker room earlier on in his career, like Hal Gill, Scott Gomez, and Mike Cammalleri, and his recent exchange with assistant coach Randy Ladouceur on the bench during a game won't help his reputation with the team's management. This, combined with his lackluster play this season would be reasons for a possible exit from Montreal, though it could prove to be a costly error. Subban is a complete package; good size, mobility, physicality, and great offensive instincts. Yes, he is prone to defensive zone lapses, but he is still a young player who is learning the game at the professional level. IF - please bare in mind I said IF - he is to be traded, for Canadiens fans not to storm the Bell Centre with torches and pitchforks, it would have to be as part of a package for a young star player. It is conceivable to deal him given the upcoming depth on D, but a Ryan Getzlaf or Corey Perry signed to an extension, or an Eric Staal-calibre big, star forward, or *perhaps* a top end prospect like Ryan Johansen or Brayden Schenn would have to be coming back for me to consider moving him. Trading him for any kind of lower-end package would severely hurt the team's future.

These are the main players I see moving. Of course, other deals are possible, like if someone happens to phone Gauthier about a Mathieu Darche or Petteri Nokelainen for a fourth line elsewhere, then sure, they could be moved for minimal returns. But it is clear that Mr. Gauthier will have plenty of dockets to cover over the next month and with so many balls in the air, it may actually be helpful to have Jacques Martin available for special assignments (the team announced yesterday that he - still being under contract - had accepted such a role to work with the General Manager).

Your Canadiens for November 21, 2011

While the attention of the rest of the league is on the much-anticipated return to action of Sidney Crosby this evening, Habs fans have a big game of their own to watch. After ending the New York Rangers' 7-game win streak on Saturday night, the team will have a chance to put a stop to Boston's 8-game run this evening.

- Your Montreal Canadiens for tonight:

Mike Cammalleri - Tomas Plekanec - Brian Gionta

Max Pacioretty - David Desharnais - Erik Cole

Travis Moen - Scott Gomez - Lars Eller

Mathieu Darche - Petteri Nokelainen - Aaron Palushaj

Josh Gorges - P.K. Subban

Frederic St. Denis - Yannick Weber

Alexei Emelin - Raphael Diaz

Carey Price

- Carey Price was today named the NHL's first star of the week for a second time this season. Despite Peter Budaj getting a start mid-week, Price put up a 2-0-1 record with a .972 save percentage and a 0.67 goals against average. His last two starts have represent the first time in his young career that he has recorded back-to-back shutouts, with his current streak at 127 minutes. Congratulations Carey!

- Tonight marks the 100th game of P.K. Subban's career. The young blueliner has stepped up his game in the wake of injuries after a slow start to the season.

- Hal Gill, released from hospital on Friday, rejoined his teammates for practice for the first time this morning, but will not play tonight. His return shouldn't be far away, however.

- Gill skated in practice with Andrei Markov, who was wearing the same white-coloured jersey as his teammates. This led to speculation that he may have received medical clearance for contact in practice, but it was later clarified that he has yet to get that green light. It is expected that it may come later this week, though. There is still no specific timeline for Markov's return, but Jacques Martin had mentioned it won't be before the California road trip which is in early December.

- Chris Campoli and Andrei Kostitsyn also skated this morning, but with a team trainer as opposed to their mates. While Campoli being a ways off is hardly news, it seems Kostitsyn isn't progressing as quickly as many had hoped for.

- Turning our attention to the prospect ranks...

After a great game with a goal and 3 assists on Friday night, Brendan Gallagher was held off the scoresheet Saturday and then collected an assist on Sundy, now giving him 36 points in 21 games, but falling off the 50-goals-in-50-games track for the first time, stuck at 19.

Fellow WHL'er Darren Dietz scored a goal yesterday, giving him 15 points in 24 games and a team best +18 rating.

Despite finishing the night a +2, defenseman Nathan Beaulieu had a 6-game point streak broken yesterday. Montreal's first round pick last June has 20 points and is a +17 in 23 games.

Michael Bournival has played three games since returning from injury. He was twice held off the scoresheet (and finishing a -2 on both of those occasions), but Saturday night he picked up 2 goals, to now give him 12 in 10 games played.

Danny Kristo was held off the scoresheet for a second consecutive weekend (with a bye weekend in between), cooling off after a rocket start. He is now back at the 1 point-per-game mark with 12 points in 12 games.

Also in the NCAA, Mac Bennett scored his 3rd goal of the season, passing the 2 he notched last year. In his rookie season, the defenseman put up 12 points in 32 games, while now as a sophomore he has 10 in just 14 contests.

Habs Quick Hits - August 11

Minor news and updates concerning your Montreal Canadiens:

- Jarred Tinordi continues his progress towards locking down a spot on Team USA for this winter's World Junior Championships. He was held off the scoresheet in all regards in a 4-1 loss to Sweden yesterday, but will again be paired with Adam Clendening (what appears to be penciled in as the Americans' third pairing for the upcoming tournament) for a game against Finland today.

- Andrei Kostitsyn has apparently sounded off to a Belarussian hockey site about Habs head coach Jacques Martin. Kostitsyn feels he does not have a good relationship with the coach and did not understand why he kept being put on third and/or fourth lines last year - something he felt was the cause of dip in his play. Story: http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=373617. Sounds like he'll look forward to hitting the open market as a UFA next summer if he is even around that long.

- For those familiar with the Boucher Scouting System website, check out a one-game review of Brendan Gallagher's play at Team Canada's recent WJC Camp: http://www.boucherscouting.com/2011/08/habs-one-game-scouting-report-for_10.html. If you're not familiar with the site, check it out - quite interesting stuff!

Where We Stand - Habs Rumour Update

There has been lots of talk of late about what Pierre Gauthier is up to, which players are still available, and what may or may not happen. Is Gauthier "done"? What does it mean to be "done" anyway? Even if Gauthier is happy with his team, he will never stop looking to improve it, so at no point will he just give up and be "done."

Today, we look at some discussion of the past week+ to try to see what really is going on.

1) Trade Rumours with the Washington Capitals

With the Capitals in a precarious salary cap situation, it seems apparent they will have to make some kind of move before the season opens. It may be as simple as Tom Poti ending up on LTIR, but if George McPhee wants some breathing room, he will have to do something more significant. Initial rumours a little over a week ago had the club possibly shopping forward Alexander Semin. This would make some sense, since Semin isn't always in the organization's good books and has only one year remaining on his deal before becoming a UFA. Of course, because the Habs name is a major traffic-generator for "rumour sites," Semin was linked to Montreal in a deal that would include Andrei Kostitsyn (also a UFA next summer). First, from the Caps' perspective, while it would work to save a few bucks, the demand would be for the Canadiens to add in a significant prospect or draft pick. Once you've done that, the deal looks utterly unappealing to the Habs: on a non-physical team, lead the guy who led the club in hits, and acquire a similar, more offensively gifted but perhaps even more enigmatic Russian forward coming off his worst season since 2007-08. Not happening.

So, once it seemed like Habs fans were not buying into this, the sites switched targets: now forward Nicklas Backstrom, under contract until the year 2020, was to be moved, with the Canadiens again offering up Kostitsyn as part of a package. Backstrom may have just completed the worst season of his career, but he is still a star player. But hold on a second. The Caps are far from deep in offensive centers, and Backstrom is part of their young core (hence the lengthy deal). Until the day Scott Gomez is dealt, the Habs are NOT in the market for a long-term top 6 pivot, and that won't be until next off-season at the earliest (and no, Washington wouldn't take Gomez back in the deal, since the whole purpose was to save cap room). So even if Backstrom were inexplicably available, there isn't a fit here, especially given the organization's seeming hatred of over-the-top long contracts like the one he has.

If you want to work out a deal with Washington, look at Jeff Schultz as a more realistic potential acquisition. A tough defensive defenseman who is signed for 3 more seasons at $2.75M a year.

2) The Josh Gorges Situation

Habs fans were split over the signing of Josh Gorges last Friday night. While happy a deal got done pre-arbitration, and accepting of the fair salary, concerned over the 1-year term that means he could be an unrestricted free agent next summer.

Does this mean he's not in Pierre Gauthier's plans? I don't think so. He has stated he loves playing in Montreal and wants to win a Stanley Cup here, and if the team will have him back, he'll certainly sign at fair market value. Which, for a player like him, shouldn't be more than $1M or more per season than his present deal (worst case scenario) - hardly the end of the world for the club's cap situation, even with P.K. Subban and Carey Price to sign next off-season. But there a strong UFA classes coming up in the next few years (which we'll look at next week), and Gauthier has left himself added flexibility with a short-term contract. Gorges is a great guy on and off the ice, a heart-and-soul leader type who gives his 110% on a nightly basis, and the kind of player you can win with. But his skill set is limited, and it's not to say he couldn't eventually be upgraded to a more complete player. A one year deal lets the team see how he performs after a 7-years-in-the-making major surgery, as well as to assess the progress of guys like Alexei Yemelin, Yannick Weber, and Rafael Diaz and where they fit in the long-term plans.

3) The New York Islanders (and The Salary Cap Floor)

The salary cap floor was set at $48.3M for this season, and as of today, 4 teams are projected to have payrolls below this number. The Nashville Predators are furthest at $7M away, but they still have Shea Weber to sign, so he will eat most of that difference on a long-term deal, and the club will then add a 7th defenseman to make up the rest. The Colorado Avalanche are a little under $3M to the floor, but if newly signed Gabriel Landeskog makes the team with his $3.575M cap hit, the issue is solved. The Phoenix Coyotes are just about $500K away with a full roster under contract, but Mikkel Boedker and Kyle Turris remain unsigned, so once they take the places of lower salaried forwards, there should be no issues.

That leaves the much-talked about New York Islanders, who stand about $6M from the floor, but still need to add 3 forwards and perhaps a third goaltender if there isn't much confidence in Al Montoya. If we assume Nino Niederreiter will make the team, that cuts the requirements in half, which might be filled on RFAs alone like Josh Bailey and Blake Comeau. But if that's still not enough, the team is apparently in talks with Alexei Yashin about an NHL return, and/or may offer a one year deal to Marty Turco who is still looking for work. So NO, the Islanders do NOT need Scott Gomez or Jaroslav Spacek, so STOP DREAMING that they will take one of these burden salaries of Montreal's hands. All times should be cap compliant by opening night without too much more difficulty at this point.