Not Your Manic Monday

What a weekend it was, Habs fans. Did they have you believing again? Even the most doubting of tanquists like myself has to admit that last week's 4-game win streak had me thinking that maybe... just maybe... there was a sudden reason to cling to hope. Maybe a truly miraculous run was still possible. Maybe this team could play like all hoped they would coming into the year.

The 5-0 win Saturday over the arch-rival Toronto Maple Leafs felt good. Even in my biggest tanker moments, I still wanted nothing more than to watch the team contribute to extending Toronto's playoff dry spell, hoping that the Canadiens would lose every night except when facing the Leafs. For a re-tooler, then, April 7th's season finale has the potential to be this season's equivalent of a 7th game of the Stanley Cup finals.

The team's prospects - not that they've been the problem whatsoever this year - also got in on the act to put fans in a good mood, if only for a brief stint. Brendan Gallagher's weekend consisted of a goal and 2 assists, with the marker tying him for all-time leading scorer in Vancouver Giants history. Michael Bournival put up a goal and 3 helpers in his 2-game set, while teammate Morgan Ellis's 2 assists went along with a +5 rating. Nathan Beaulieu's 4 assists this weekend have him on an impressive 4-game, 8-point streak. But perhaps most impressive was Ryan White, who after only making his highly anticipated season debut last week, scored 4 goals and an assist in 4 AHL conditioning stint games.

I hope you enjoyed it while it lasted, Canadiens faithful, as instead of a manic Monday that would have refilled the bandwagon with what should have been an "easier" win over the cellar dweller Carolina Hurricanes, we all came crashing back to reality with a hard thud. Blame Carey Price for not having his best game of the year if you'd like. Blame Andrei Kostitsyn for pulling his famous disappearing act. Blame Scott Gomez for... oh wait, you already blame him. Blame Pierre Gauthier for sending Jaroslav Spacek (1 goal, -1) to Carolina for Tomas Kaberle (1 assist, -2). Blame Montreal's powerplay for - after finally showing life with 2 goals in the 2nd period - allowing a backbreaking Eric Staal shorthanded tally early in the third. Blame whoever you want. Had anything really changed?

Following another patented 2011-12 Montreal Canadien Third Period Collapse™ (MCTPC), despite last week's heroics, the Habs awake today still 2 games below .500, 7 points out of a playoff position, and though currently in 11th place, just one point up on each of the 12th, 13th, and 14th place clubs in the East, each of whom hold two games in hand on them. In fact, although last week's run allowed the hopeless romantic and diehard fan in me to live some highs, my rational tanker identity for this season knows that dropping last night's decision to the Hurricanes was a huge step towards hopefully securing a high pick. The loss puts Montreal just 2 points up on 15th place Carolina, with both teams having played 57 of 82.

Now, I hear what you're saying. I'm giving up too easily. After a good week, just one bad game and I'm back to doom and gloom. But let's take it for what it was: a good week for what has been a poor team for most of the season. To make the playoffs, the team would likely need something like a 20-5-0 record here on out, and while it is true that it could be achieved by repeating the past week's 4-1 record five times over, I would say the odds of that occurring are about as likely as you winning the team's season ticket Lotricolore charity lottery with a single entry. "But... But... The St. Louis Cardinals!" you rebut. Yes, the Cardinals overcame a substantial deficit in turning a tough season around and going on to win a championship, but baseball isn't hockey. First of all, the baseball season is virtually double the length of the NHL's, meaning there is significantly more time to make up lost ground. Even still, you might argue, the Cards sat 10 and a half games back of the Atlanta Braves with just 32 games to play in their season. Well that leads to a second point, which is that even with exceptional play, it took a monumental collapse of epic proportions on the part of the Braves for St. Louis to get in. Still, there is no reason why such a bad spell couldn't befall any number of playoff hopefuls in the East, allowing the Habs to leapfrog them. Then what makes me believe the playoffs are such an impossibility? The most compelling difference between the NHL and MLB standings, being the existence of hockey's 3-point games. Three point nights can be your friend when you're in 7th or 8th spot and trying to hold on, collecting loser points here and there, but when you're in a hole, the more points that get spread among the teams you are battling with, the bigger the hill becomes to climb.

This is why I maintain that the plan needs to remain on course. A few happiness-inducing wins right now for a 10th or 11th place finish aren't in anyone's best interest. The main goal for all is to put together a Stanley Cup winning team, and the best way for the team to help itself towards that end will be to add a premiere franchise player courtesy of a top 5 draft selection.

So let's sat back and enjoy the show to the trade deadline and beyond. The call-up of Ryan White (and extremely odd 24 hours of Ian Schultz) in preparation for Wednesday night's dance with the Boston Bruins should at least keep fans entertained. Beat the Leafs, beat up the Bruins, and add a Mikhail Grigorenko or other top end talent? That's plenty to satiate my 2011-12 Hab needs.

[apologies for lack of updates Thursday, Friday, and Monday; as I Tweeted from this site's account, I was in Portugal and did not have sufficient time to prep pieces]

Your Canadiens for October 5, 2011 (Updates from Collingwood)

We're only a day away from a return to NHL hockey! As the Canadiens finish off their final preparations for the opener against the Toronto Maple Leafs, we bring you one final training camp update.

- Instead of joining their teammates on the ice today, Aaron Palushaj, Mike Blunden, and Jeff Woywitka trained in the gym. This likely indicates they will all be Hamilton-bound by day's end (though Woywitka would still need to be waived first). This is good news as it could indicate more healthy bodies (Lars Eller?) returning to the line-up.

UPDATE: - Per the Canadiens, Palushaj has officially been sent to Hamilton. Blunden will have to wait till he clears waivers at noon today, and Woywitka should be placed on waivers at the same time. The cuts come as the Canadiens must submit their opening day roster by 3:00 PM today.

UPDATE: - As we mentioned, Woywitka was placed on waivers by the Canadiens today as well. After clearing waivers, Blunden was officially assigned to the Bulldogs at noon.

- Per Canadiens.com, Ryan White has also now officially been placed on IR. Since he was not on injured reserve at the end of last season, this means he must be held out at least a full week.

UPDATE: - Lines in practice remained the same today. I put up a feature this morning on trying to make sense of them. Check it out here:

http://yourcanadiens.blogspot.com/2011/10/trying-to-understand-jacques-martins.html

So with the cuts, this will be your final roster.

Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2011-12 Montreal Canadiens:

Mike Cammalleri - Tomas Plekanec - Andrei Kostitsyn

Max Pacioretty - Scott Gomez - Brian Gionta

Mathieu Darche - David Desharnais - Erik Cole

Travis Moen - Andreas Engqvist - Yannick Weber

Lars Eller (inj.)

Hal Gill - P.K. Subban

Chris Campoli - Josh Gorges

Jaroslav Spacek - Raphael Diaz

Alexei Yemelin

With Ryan White and Andrei Markov currently on injured reserve.

Very interestingly, this is only 22 names, meaning there is 1 free roster spot. Does the team know something that we don't yet? Is there a waiver claim in for Blair Betts and/or Victor Oreskovich?

- Thanks to Mike Cammalleri's Tweet, we know that last night the team visited Scandinave Spa Blue Mountain for some rest and relaxation. Looks like a nice place.

If you want to see the latest Tweets from all members of the Canadiens organization, you can follow our Habs Player List on Twitter.

- Alexei Emelin's agent Don Meehan gave an interview to a Russian news outlet where he expressed his confidence that his client will remain with the Habs all season. He confirmed that there is indeed a clause in Emelin's contract which would allow him to return to the KHL instead if he were to be assigned to Hamilton, but says he had a chat with Pierre Gauthier who expressed satisfaction with Emelin's performance thus far. The interview:

http://www.sports.ru/en/hockey/127034149.html

- For those that may not have seen it, during the Canadiens' game in Quebec City against the Tampa Bay Lightning, as the crowd was doing the wave, Carey Price joined in. Courtesy of the amazing site 25stanley.com, here is the video:

- The Canadiens officially sent forward Ian Schultz down to the Hamilton Bulldogs, indicating that he is sufficiently recovered from his injury to get the needed medical clearance. That leaves Louis Leblanc, Olivier Fortier, Hunter Bishop, and Brendon Nash as players technically still with the Canadiens camp because their injury prevents them from being sent down to the AHL. The Habs are charged a small fraction of their AHL salary against the cap for every day they will be spend on the NHL roster.

- Former Habs goaltender David Aebischer (yes, THAT David Aebischer) has signed a 1 year AHL deal with the farm team of the Winnipeg Jets, the St. John's Ice Caps. Aebi has spent the last 4 seasons playing in the Swiss Elite League.

Where We Stand - Habs Rumour Update

There has been lots of talk of late about what Pierre Gauthier is up to, which players are still available, and what may or may not happen. Is Gauthier "done"? What does it mean to be "done" anyway? Even if Gauthier is happy with his team, he will never stop looking to improve it, so at no point will he just give up and be "done."

Today, we look at some discussion of the past week+ to try to see what really is going on.

1) Trade Rumours with the Washington Capitals

With the Capitals in a precarious salary cap situation, it seems apparent they will have to make some kind of move before the season opens. It may be as simple as Tom Poti ending up on LTIR, but if George McPhee wants some breathing room, he will have to do something more significant. Initial rumours a little over a week ago had the club possibly shopping forward Alexander Semin. This would make some sense, since Semin isn't always in the organization's good books and has only one year remaining on his deal before becoming a UFA. Of course, because the Habs name is a major traffic-generator for "rumour sites," Semin was linked to Montreal in a deal that would include Andrei Kostitsyn (also a UFA next summer). First, from the Caps' perspective, while it would work to save a few bucks, the demand would be for the Canadiens to add in a significant prospect or draft pick. Once you've done that, the deal looks utterly unappealing to the Habs: on a non-physical team, lead the guy who led the club in hits, and acquire a similar, more offensively gifted but perhaps even more enigmatic Russian forward coming off his worst season since 2007-08. Not happening.

So, once it seemed like Habs fans were not buying into this, the sites switched targets: now forward Nicklas Backstrom, under contract until the year 2020, was to be moved, with the Canadiens again offering up Kostitsyn as part of a package. Backstrom may have just completed the worst season of his career, but he is still a star player. But hold on a second. The Caps are far from deep in offensive centers, and Backstrom is part of their young core (hence the lengthy deal). Until the day Scott Gomez is dealt, the Habs are NOT in the market for a long-term top 6 pivot, and that won't be until next off-season at the earliest (and no, Washington wouldn't take Gomez back in the deal, since the whole purpose was to save cap room). So even if Backstrom were inexplicably available, there isn't a fit here, especially given the organization's seeming hatred of over-the-top long contracts like the one he has.

If you want to work out a deal with Washington, look at Jeff Schultz as a more realistic potential acquisition. A tough defensive defenseman who is signed for 3 more seasons at $2.75M a year.

2) The Josh Gorges Situation

Habs fans were split over the signing of Josh Gorges last Friday night. While happy a deal got done pre-arbitration, and accepting of the fair salary, concerned over the 1-year term that means he could be an unrestricted free agent next summer.

Does this mean he's not in Pierre Gauthier's plans? I don't think so. He has stated he loves playing in Montreal and wants to win a Stanley Cup here, and if the team will have him back, he'll certainly sign at fair market value. Which, for a player like him, shouldn't be more than $1M or more per season than his present deal (worst case scenario) - hardly the end of the world for the club's cap situation, even with P.K. Subban and Carey Price to sign next off-season. But there a strong UFA classes coming up in the next few years (which we'll look at next week), and Gauthier has left himself added flexibility with a short-term contract. Gorges is a great guy on and off the ice, a heart-and-soul leader type who gives his 110% on a nightly basis, and the kind of player you can win with. But his skill set is limited, and it's not to say he couldn't eventually be upgraded to a more complete player. A one year deal lets the team see how he performs after a 7-years-in-the-making major surgery, as well as to assess the progress of guys like Alexei Yemelin, Yannick Weber, and Rafael Diaz and where they fit in the long-term plans.

3) The New York Islanders (and The Salary Cap Floor)

The salary cap floor was set at $48.3M for this season, and as of today, 4 teams are projected to have payrolls below this number. The Nashville Predators are furthest at $7M away, but they still have Shea Weber to sign, so he will eat most of that difference on a long-term deal, and the club will then add a 7th defenseman to make up the rest. The Colorado Avalanche are a little under $3M to the floor, but if newly signed Gabriel Landeskog makes the team with his $3.575M cap hit, the issue is solved. The Phoenix Coyotes are just about $500K away with a full roster under contract, but Mikkel Boedker and Kyle Turris remain unsigned, so once they take the places of lower salaried forwards, there should be no issues.

That leaves the much-talked about New York Islanders, who stand about $6M from the floor, but still need to add 3 forwards and perhaps a third goaltender if there isn't much confidence in Al Montoya. If we assume Nino Niederreiter will make the team, that cuts the requirements in half, which might be filled on RFAs alone like Josh Bailey and Blake Comeau. But if that's still not enough, the team is apparently in talks with Alexei Yashin about an NHL return, and/or may offer a one year deal to Marty Turco who is still looking for work. So NO, the Islanders do NOT need Scott Gomez or Jaroslav Spacek, so STOP DREAMING that they will take one of these burden salaries of Montreal's hands. All times should be cap compliant by opening night without too much more difficulty at this point.