Showing posts with label UFA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UFA. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Top 10 Offensive Forward Hab UFA Targets

Last Friday, I pointed out three areas where I felt the Canadiens need additions this summer in order to bounce back from a very difficult season.  Today and the next two Tuesdays I will look at the UFA class, suggesting the 10 best free agents fits for each of these three weaknesses.  We start today with the need for a top 6 player up front - someone ideally with some size and scoring punch.

Before we get to the names I did include on the list below, I have to preface it with three big names I left out.  First there's Teemu Selanne, for whom it is abundantly clear the choice is just between Anaheim and retirement.  Next there's Shane Doan who may be unlikely to leave Phoenix, but even if he does, it won't be for Montreal.  I'm quite confident that his alleged linguistic slur run-in with Denis Coderre who accused him of uttering anti-Francophone sentiments towards referees will keep him out of La Belle Province.  Finally, and perhaps most debate-ably, I didn't include Alexander Semin as a candidate.  Sure, he has the frame the Habs are looking for at 6'2" and 208 lbs, and yes, even in an off-year last season, he scored 54 points in 77 games.  But his attitude off the ice just doesn't strike me as the kind of player Marc Bergevin - a guy who fully endorses a team-first strategy - would be interested in signing.  He seems like a typical Pierre Gauthier / Bob Gainey acquisition.  A Sergei Samsonov UFA signing.  I don't see Bergevin biting.

Also note that you may consider some of my proposed contract offers to be on the low end.  This is because the list as a whole doesn't really impress me, so I'd rather see Montreal strikeout in this category than overpay for a guy they'll be stuck with when other names may be available in a future off-season or via trade.

With that said, let's get on to 10 players I think Bergevin might consider in a "wish list" of sorts.

10) Brad Boyes, C - Buffalo Sabres
6'1", 195 lbs - 2011-12: 65 GP, 8 G, 15 A, 23 PTS
Age 30

Boyes had phenomenal seasons in 2007-08 and 2008-09, with 43 and 33 goals respectively, but then his game mysteriously went south.  The Sabres thought a change of scenery might do him good when they dealt for him last season, but his first full year in Buffalo produced only 23 points - the lowest total of his career.  Is now the time to take a chance on a possible reclamation project?  He isn't a particularly top notch skater, nor does he always use his frame as well as he should, but he's adapted his game to be a hard-working two-way forward, and perhaps if the NHL goes back to a post-lockout obstruction and interference standard, he'll find the kind of success he once knew.

Contract offer: 1 year, $2M cap hit


9) Kristian Huselius, LW - Columbus Blue Jackets
6'1", 185 lbs - 2011-12: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PTS
Age 33

After being limited to 39 games in 2010-11, Huselius managed only 2 games last season, so any possible suitor will have his health as a primary concern.  In those 39 games, the large and speedy winger impressively potted 14 goals, while in his last near-full season in 2009-10, he totaled 63 points to rank third on the Blue Jackets.  If - and it's a big if - he's given a clean bill of health, he could be one of the better fits on the market, likely seeking a short-term contract to prove himself which would be rather low-risk from a Habs' perspective.

Contract offer: 1 Year, $2.5M cap hit


8) Jiri Hudler, C - Detroit Red Wings
5'10", 186 lbs - 2011-12: 81 GP, 25 G, 25 A, 50 PTS
Age 28

The Red Wings have plenty of cap space available to keep any of their players they'd like, so for Hudler to leave it would likely be the player himself seeking a new challenge.  Hudler is the smallest guy on this list, but with such a limited talent pool, it would be impossible to leave a 28-year old 25-goal scorer off of it.  He lacks in strength and consistency, but has slick hands and is a countrymate of Tomas Plekanec, with the two having played on the same World Junior Championship club in 2001-02.  Like Boyes, in addition to center, Hudler is comfortable at either wing position, so perhaps a line of he, Plekanec, and Erik Cole might have potential to balance Montreal's offense aside from the Max Pacioretty - David Desharnais duo.

Contract offer: 3 years, $4M cap hit


7) David Jones, RW - Colorado Avalanche
6'2", 220 lbs - 2011-12: 72 GP, 20 G, 17 A, 37 PTS
Age 27

Jones was unable to replicate his 27 goals and 45 points of a year ago, but did manage a second consecutive 20-goal season, proving that he can score in the right situation.  He's a bit more of an off-the-radar candidate than the other names on this list, but has one of the more imposing physiques and at 27 likely still has better days ahead of him.  He can bring a physical element to the game, moves well enough for a big man, and has a quick release.  Not a textbook top 6 forward, but might not look out of place beside David Desharnais so that the Canadiens could experiment pairing Erik Cole with Tomas Plekanec.

Contract offer: 3 years, $3M cap hit


6) Ryan Smyth, LW - Edmonton Oilers
6'1", 192 lbs - 2011-12: 82 GP, 19 G, 27 A, 46 PTS
Age 36

After requesting a trade from the Kings so he could return to Edmonton (based on on-ice reasons, this certainly looks a little silly right now), one would think it was a foregone conclusion that Smyth would re-sign with the Oilers.  And yet, there is talk that even though the team could use a veteran presence around its group of promising youngsters, that they may opt to part ways from Smyth and look in a different direction.  Smyth isn't an Erik Cole; he's nearing the end of his career and after a red hot start to last season, went out with a whimper.  But he is a big body capable of putting up some points, and if he's willing to leave Alberta, like Jones, could give the Canadiens some flexibility in perhaps freeing Max Pacioretty or Erik Cole from David Desharnais's hips by providing another big option and thus giving Tomas Plekanec some better linemates.

Contract offer: 1 year, $4M cap hit


5) Olli Jokinen, C - Calgary Flames
6'3", 210 lbs - 2011-12: 82 GP, 23 G, 38 A, 61 PTS
Age 33

At 33, Jokinen's heydays with the Florida Panthers are a thing of the past.  But the Finnish forward has had a bit of a resurgence in Calgary the last two seasons, recording 54 and 61 points respectively.  He's not the #1 center the team needs and isn't particularly gritty, but he brings a 6'3", 210 lbs frame, and is capable of filling a second line role.  If the team is interested in him - and I do think they should be at the right price - it would likely mean Lars Eller shifting to the wing on a second or third line.  Eller most recently played and starred there for Team Denmark at the World Hockey Championship.

Contract offer: 2 years, $4M cap hit


4) Andrei Kostitsyn, RW - Nashville Predators
6'0", 205 lbs - 2011-12: 72 GP, 16 G, 20 A, 36 PTS
Age 27

That Kostitsyn ranks so highly on this list is a testament to the lack of talent in the free agent pool this summer, but in truth, it is his departure which - in part - creates this need in Montreal's line-up.  If people will stop holding where he was drafted against him, they would see a thick forward with one heck of a release.  He can play physical when the mood strikes him, but certainly he adds to the club's goal-scoring potential.  Does he want to come back to Montreal?  That may be a moot point, as his post-season team suspension for violating curfew may stand in too much of a contrast with Bergevin's team ahead of anyone player philosophy.  But on the ice, he would undoubtedly improve the roster, and he's still well in his prime.

Contract offer: 4 years, $3.8M cap hit


3) Jaromir Jagr, RW - Philadelphia Flyers
6'3", 240 lbs - 2011-12: 73 GP, 19 G, 35 A, 54 PTS
Age 40

One year ago, at this time, Jaromir Jagr was the #1 name on my free agent wish list, just ahead of one Erik Cole.  Jagr performed pretty well as I had expected him to, but falls two spots as another year of strain on his body doesn't help the situation, and the Habs look a little further from contention today than they did last June.  Still, if the Canadiens lack scoring and want to add a powerplay threat, then Jagr is a fit, especially considering they won't have to commit big dollars over long-term to bring him in.  His role would have to be monitored carefully, playing with Tomas Plekanec at 5-on-5, but not taking every shift on that line, swapping for a defensive forward when Pleks is out there in a more shutdown capacity.  This would keep Jagr fresher for the PP and other offensive situations, while limiting his minutes to prevent late-season fatigue that we saw notably in this year's playoffs.

Contract offer: 1 year, $4M cap hit


2) Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau, RW - New York Islanders
6'0", 193 lbs - 2011-12: 80 GP, 18 G, 49 A, 67 PTS
Age 29

Parenteau gets instant consideration as a French-speaking native of Hull, Quebec, with Bergevin indicating that he sees it important to try to increase the local content on the Canadiens over time.  But he's earned being among the more interesting names in a shallow pool this summer with his late-blooming production.  He began his first complete NHL season at the late age of 27 after a successful AHL career and immediately put up 53 points when gifted with talented linemates in Long Island.  He improved to 67 points last year, and would be another flexible option who could move up and down the Montreal line-up depending on the play of Rene Bourque and Brian Gionta.

Contract offer: 3 years, $3.75M cap hit


1) Zach Parise, LW - New Jersey Devils
5'11", 185 lbs - 2011-12: 82 GP, 31 G, 38 A, 69 PTS
Age 27

Parise will undoubtedly be the most-coveted forwards this summer if he makes it to July 1st without re-signing.  The New Jersey Devils's captain currently playing in the Stanley Cup Final doesn't have the size Montreal is looking for - one of only two names on this list under six feet - but is a big-time scorer with four 30-goal seasons and one 40-goal season over the past six years.  At 27, Parise is likely looking for a long-term contract, which would mean he'd be around long enough to play with the big center Montreal hopefully picks up in the first round of this year's draft.  Until then, he can play with Tomas Plekanec and a bigger winger, allowing Brian Gionta to line up next to Lars Eller in creating three solid scoring lines.

Contract offer: 7 years, $6.75M cap hit


Tuesday, April 24, 2012

10 Habs Players Who May Not Be Back Next Year

This off-season could mean big changes for your Montreal Canadiens.  As the month of April nears its end, the team still finds itself without a General Manager or Head Coach.  The club has a third overall selection at this year's entry draft which will significantly alter the prospect pool, even if the likelihood that whoever the team takes at that spot won't make the team straight out of training camp is high.  Whoever does take over in a Management role is most certain to want to put their own stamp on the team, meaning as of right now, no one is necessarily "untouchable."  Thus the team that ended the year in disappointing fashion may be drastically different than the one that opens training camp in the Fall, even if a shallow UFA pool would under normal circumstances leave few acquisition options for the team.

But before we start looking at who the Habs might bring in, today we look at who might be jettisoned elsewhere.  Since we went over next year's Hamilton Bulldogs on Friday, today we'll include only players who played at least one game for Montreal during the 2011-12 regular season.

10) Petteri Nokelainen

When it became clear that Andreas Engqvist wasn't ready for full-time NHL duty, the Canadiens scrambled to find a new fourth line center.  After a waiver claim gone bad in Blair Betts, the team dealt for Nokelainen, who was serviceable in the role, but far from spectacular.  He has decent size (6'1", 202 lbs), can play on the penalty kill, and is a right-handed shot, but didn't show much of the toughness the team also needs out of a player in that role, and has little in the way of hockey skills.  He'll be a restricted free agent this summer and is only 26, so he could be retained, but the team may very well opt to seek an upgrade on the UFA market since once identified as a need, that type of player isn't hard to acquire in July.

9) Rene Bourque

Bourque was one asset acquired in the Mike Cammalleri trade (I would argue the 2nd round pick was the primary asset) to help balance out the salaries.  Yes, Bourque did have consecutive 27-goal seasons prior to this past year's 18, but I would say he is more suited to be a third line player on a top team due to his inconsistencies, rather than a frustrating second liner.  He could replace - to an extent - an Andrei Kostitsyn in the line-up; he can't fill the void left by an on-his-game Cammalleri.  The problem is that Bourque was borderline terrible after being acquired, with the toughness and physicality in his game evaporating and showing weak hands around the goal.  Thus, a GM coming in and wanting to do a clean-up may try to ship Bourque out, but the 4 years remaining on his deal at $3.33M per season may throw a wrench in the plans.  I'm ok with giving Bourque another chance on Lars Eller's wing, and his cap hit isn't particularly prohibitive to finding a better winger for Tomas Plekanec, but it also wouldn't surprise me if Montreal tries to deal him elsewhere.

8) Tomas Kaberle

Speaking of players not pulling their weight, Tomas Kaberle has 2 years left on his deal at $4.25M per season.  Jaroslav Spacek's expiring $3.8M had already been earmarked for raises to the likes of Carey Price and/or P.K. Subban, so by taking on a contract with remaining term in its place, the Habs will have to make cuts elsewhere.  The problem isn't Kaberle's production - his 22 points in 43 games after joining the Canadiens would mean a 40-point season averaged out, which isn't terrible for the salary he's making.  The problem is more the fit.  The Canadiens have enough puck-moving offensive blueliners with Andrei Markov, P.K. Subban, Yannick Weber, and Raphael Diaz, and given this, spending $4.25M on a soft, one-dimensional scoring d-man doesn't seem like a good deal.  Even if, say, Weber isn't back next year (see lower down the list), the need for Kaberle isn't there on this team, and if he is on the club to safeguard against a Markov injury, the team has a much bigger need for a more two-way guy like a younger Roman Hamrlik instead.  Like with Bourque, finding a taker may be an issue, but he could be a good fit on a team with bigger defensive d-men to compensate for his weak play in his own zone.

7) Mathieu Darche

Darche has been a good story in Montreal as a local boy who took a long route to end up living his childhood dreams.  He has given the Habs all they could have hoped for on bargain basement contracts, and at 6'1", 210 lbs his size his welcome as a 12th or 13th forward.  However, his production and consistency took a step back this season, and he is far from irreplaceable.  There are only so many roster spots to go around, and at age 35, Darche's useful days are nearing their end.  The spot might be better going to a true enforcer, or a younger player trying to establish himself as a roster regular.  Darche will be a UFA this summer and there is likely to be work for him somewhere in the league if he's willing to leave the city, but his three year run with the Canadiens could very well be coming to a close.

6) Brad Staubitz

Staubitz seemed like a random waiver acquisition on trade deadline day, a move many thought would simply fill a hole following numerous other trades.  Those deals didn't materialize, so many assumed Staubitz had just been a security policy and wouldn't see much action.  But he did; playing 19 games and becoming the team's go-to enforcer.  He seemed to be a good teammate, with his fellow Canadiens noticeably excited when he scored the club's final goal of the year into an empty net.  Staubitz, 27, is a big and tough customer at 6'1", 210 lbs, but he is short on hockey skills outside of dropping the gloves.  The Habs haven't carried a true enforcer in quite some time, though many have proclaimed a need for such a player.  Staubitz could do the job, though if he is back, I'd rather see him scratched more frequently than he was down the stretch and only used in games where there was felt to be a need for his toughness.  More ideally he would be let go (he's a UFA this summer) and replaced with an enforcer more capable of taking a regular shift (such as fellow UFAs Brandon Prust, Jordin Tootoo, Tom Kostopoulos, or even George Parros).  The current Canadiens staff seem quite enamoured with Mike Blunden, so it is possible it comes down to keeping only one of the two (along with pending UFA Travis Moen), and I would rather see Blunden back over Staubitz, but we don't know what direction the new staff will take.

5) Aaron Palushaj

Palushaj, 22, was acquired from the St. Louis Blues for Matt D'Agostini a little over two years back.  He is a proven AHL superstar scorer, notching 35 points in 35 games for the Bulldogs this season.  But the NHL points weren't coming until quite late on this season, with him finally scoring his first goal and adding 4 assists on a total of 38 games.  Palushaj has very average size at 5'11", 187 lbs, and has little physicality or intensity to his game, while also not being any kind of defensive specialist, meaning he will contribute in an offensive role or simply not make the cut.  He hasn't shown any reason to be given a shot in the top 6, and already has his hands full battling Louis Leblanc for a third line job.  Add to this the imminent arrival of Brendan Gallagher, Michael Bournival, and likely Danny Kristo at the pro ranks, and Palushaj will be quickly dropping down the depth charts.  He is waiver eligible in the Fall, so while there is no real reason not to at least qualify him and bring him to training camp, if he doesn't make the starting roster in the Fall, another organization may very well take a chance on him as a still-developing player.

4) Andreas Engqvist

Engqvist, 24, falls under a similar category as Palushaj being an AHL star that struggles to produce at the NHL level.  Like Palushaj, he is an RFA this summer meaning the Canadiens need to make a call on him.  But then there are notable differences as well.  First, Engqvist brings size (a skinny 6'4" frame, even if he doesn't use it particularly effectively) and a right-handed shot to the equation, things the Habs are short on at the center position.  Engqvist also excels (at least at the AHL level thus far) in a defensive, shutdown, and penalty-killing role, making him a more versatile player well suited to a third or fourth line job.  But he hasn't shown that he deserves even that kind of ice time in the NHL level as of yet, and wasn't even amongst the late-season call-ups following the trade of Andrei Kostitsyn and numerous injuries at the forward position.  Was he left in Hamilton just to help the Bulldogs (he was named team co-MVP this year)?  Or was it a sign that he is out of the plans for the future?  The fact that he himself may choose to return to Europe this summer regardless of the Canadiens' intentions may indicate the second is more likely, though he is another guy who there seems little reason not to qualify and retain rights to... just in case.

3) Yannick Weber

Weber, 23, a third round pick of the Canadiens in 2007, was a star for the OHL's Kitchener Rangers and seen as an up-and-coming offensive blueliner.  The Swiss native showed all of that potential in the American League as a top player for the Bulldogs, but he has struggled to prove himself in the NHL, largely due to his small stature (5'11", 193 lbs) leaving him manhandled in his own end.  He has at times looked effective on the powerplay with decent passing and a big shot, but he is also prone to giveaways and mental lapses, meaning frustrating inconsistency.  Last summer, the Habs snagged a very similar player in Raphael Diaz, 26, as a European UFA, and he and Weber put up almost identical numbers this season.  It is likely the team should choose between one of the two in their top 6 for the coming year, and if this past season's usage provides any clues, then Diaz seems the favoured son.  However, it is far from a certainty as the team's new management group may have a different evaluation of the players.

2) Scott Gomez

If the jury is still out on whether or not a lot of the above players can help the Canadiens moving forward, this one should be clear.  Gomez was given a chance to make amends for a poor 2010-11 campaign this season, and did little to impress.  He said all the right things off the ice a year ago, and he can't be entirely blamed for a season that was in large part derailed by multiple injuries, but a 32-year old 5'11" center who was on pace for 24 points over an 82-game campaign has no spot on this team.  He is not a fourth liner, isn't big or tough, is far from a defensive specialist, and the team is better off with David Desharnais, Tomas Plekanec, and Lars Eller down the middle.  And notice all of these arguments against him before we even get to the big one: his $7.357M annual burden on the club's salary cap.  The cap hit makes him entirely untradeable, so there are only a couple of options if he is to be gotten rid of prior to the final two seasons on his deal.  The optimist Habs fans hope for a one-time amnesty buyout permitted by the new CBA, where he could be bought out with no cap hit, as a traditional buyout handicaps the club moving forward.  The alternative is to put him on waivers and send him to Hamilton, where Geoff Molson would still be on the hook for his full salary, but the Canadiens could spend that money on other players for their NHL roster as well if ownership was willing to stretch the budget.

1) Chris Campoli

Of the 10, Campoli seems the most certain to be gone in the coming months.  He will be an unrestricted free agent again this summer and is somewhat of a 'tweener on the blueline.  Not an offensive guy, not a defensive guy, and not a particularly dependable player, but a reasonable depth defenseman who picked up his game over the final weeks of this season after an injury-filled and rough start.  Despite joining his fourth team, Campoli is still only 27 and will find a contract somewhere on a team wanting an extra body on D, but depth is not what the team will lack at that position.  They need to use this spot for an upgrade on the back end with a guy who can step up and reliably play top 4 minutes in case of an injury.  A guy who is bigger than the average-sized Campoli and can throw a hit without ending up out of position.

Wildcard: Brian Gionta or Tomas Plekanec


If the new GM really wants to make an impression and change the core of this club, it is likely one of Brian Gionta or Tomas Plekanec who gets shopped (well before a guy like P.K. Subban).  Gionta, 33, may be the team's captain, but there is far from a leadership void with the likes of Erik Cole and Josh Gorges on the club, and at 5'7", 175 lbs, doesn't fit the team's need to get bigger.  Even discounting the injuries that made him miss 51 games, he had a very difficult season scoring just 8 goals and 15 points in 31 contests.  He has provided goal-scoring in his tenure with the Canadiens (his seasons of 29 and 28 were the second and third highest of his career), but his overall productivity has declined from his New Jersey days, and perhaps a bigger problem is that he doesn't seem to fit on a line with either David Desharnais (lack of size) or Tomas Plekanec (lack of chemistry).  Gionta is owed $5M for two more seasons, so the Habs may see if they can shake things up and try out a different player in that spot.

Plekanec, 29, is a different case, remaining a very valuable two-way member of the club even if his 17 goals and 52 points were south of what most had hoped for him this year.  Those numbers are more impressive when you consider he had weak and ever-changing linemates for much of the season.  The troubling number was his -15, something very uncharacteristic of a generally highly dependable defensive center.  In part it reflected the poor season of the team as a whole, but Plekanec's own intensity and tenacity were noticeably missing at times.  The reason to move Plekanec would be to add a bigger top 6 center, and the only way he could be moved is in a package for such a replacement player, but it wouldn't surprise me if that is the kind of bold deal the new GM tries to strike.


Monday, January 16, 2012

Entering the Post-Cammalleri Era

Canadiens General Manager Pierre Gauthier made a big splash last week when he pulled Mike Cammalleri out of a game against the Boston Bruins to deal him to the Calgary Flames. While the timing of the trade and the manner in which it was executed was a little suspect to say the least, the shedding of a large salary and the moving of an unproductive winger was a necessary step in shaping the Habs moving forward.

Why was it necessary, and where does it leave the team now? Let's take a look at the current situation, and then how the Canadiens might position themselves to bounce back and contend as soon as next season.

Finishing Out 2011-12

The Canadiens did not and do not have issues with the salary cap for the current season. That seems to have been a misconception with Scott Gomez's return to the line-up, but even with his albatross contract, thanks to LTIR savings from numerous injuries, the roster is well within the upper limit. However, raises will be necessary for a number of core roster components in the near future, and thus flexibility moving forward should be at a premium.

Even after last night's impressive win over the powerful New York Rangers, Montreal sits 8 points out a playoff spot, with 3 teams sitting between them and the 8th place Pittsburgh Penguins, each of which has a game in hand. Not the most enviable of spots to be in. The Habs are 17-20-8, with 37 games left to make up the ground. If we assume a 93-point playoff cut-off, which may or may not be a safe assumption, they will have to earn 51 points over those 37 games, meaning a record of 25-11-1 or something equivalent. Not impossible (see: The Boston Bruins since November), but it would require an absolutely incredible run, something the Canadiens have given no indication of being capable of through their play thus far this season. Winning roughly 2 or more out of every 3 games for the rest of the calendar is not a bet I'd want to place, so from my perspective, playoffs are out of reach in 2012.

This is hurtful and hard to accept, but we need to be honest about it. I will always be a Habs fan and thus I want my team to win on a nightly basis. I get mad/upset when they lose games in most seasons. But folks, "tanking" isn't a dirty word. If you're a fan who wants to stand by and hope for the miracle of a huge win streak, then fine, I applaud your optimism. However, also understand that if this is the path you choose, you should not be complaining about the Canadiens continued lack of a true #1 center or of a star-caliber impact player. There are no #1 centers on the UFA market this summer, and offensive centers with size are not easy to come by on the trade market. The best way to add the kind of player the Habs need is through the draft and specifically through a top pick. If Montreal finishes in the cellar and nabs, say, the 2nd overall pick this year, a Mikhail Grigorenko (a 6'2" offensive dynamo who plays primarily center in the QMJHL) is a phenomenal fit to take the team to another level. That's the path I would prefer. I'm not a fan of tanking when there is still playoff hope, but at this point, when it stops looking realistic to me, I'm thinking longer term.

Unfortunately if not understandably, "tanking" doesn't appear to be in the Canadiens' vocabulary. The team is committed to winning hockey games, regardless of the situation they're in, which is frustrating (why couldn't they have replicated the Rangers effort a few more times this year?!). This is ok. I'm not saying they should be throwing games. What we have to hope, however, is that the team isn't so committed to winning that they will make moves during a near hopeless season that further handicap them for the future. The trading of prospects and draft picks, unless it is for similar young assets, should be completely off limits. Similarly, if Travis Moen or Andrei Kostitsyn don't agree to extensions before the deadline, as pending UFAs, good asset management is to ship them to the highest bidder by late February in order to avoid losing them for nothing. They shouldn't be retained just to help the team this season, just as Hal Gill and Chris Campoli, who should not factor into any plans beyond this year, must also find new homes by deadline day. So long as this is all part of the plan, I have no problem with the team continuing to try to win. Don't give up, but manage your squad with future interests in mind at all times.

2012-13 and the Salary Cap Situation

The Canadiens have the following NHL players under contract for next season:

Scott Gomez - $7,357,143
Tomas Plekanec - $5,000,000
Brian Gionta - $5,000,000
Erik Cole - $4,500,000
Rene Bourque - $3,333,333
Max Pacioretty - $1,625,000
David Desharnais - $850,000

Andrei Markov - $5,750,000
Tomas Kaberle - $4,250,000
Josh Gorges - $3,900,000
Yannick Weber - $850,000

Peter Budaj - $1,150,000

That's $43,565,476 committed, with a bare minimum need of 5 forward, 2 defensemen, and a starting goaltender to be signed (or spots filled with prospects / traded for players). The biggest wild cards at present are the new collective bargaining agreement and any changes it may bring to league rules, and how they salary cap may fluctuate at season's end. For the time being, we'll go with good ol' ceteris paribus, assuming the cap remains constant at $64,300,000.

The two big dockets for Pierre Gauthier or his successor are Carey Price and P.K. Subban, both restricted free agents this coming summer. There was rumour this week of a discussed $7M / season deal for Price, which even if untrue, couldn't be horribly far off. We'll be conservative and use that $7M number, even if a $6M or $6.5M final figure is possible. Subban hasn't done himself any favours with his play and lack of production this season, but he is still logging significant minutes and is an important cog on defense. The Habs will likely push for term with him while he could be had relatively cheap, though he may opt to sign a 1-year deal in the neighbourhood of $2.5M. Let's say the parties meet in the middle somewhere and his cap hit comes in at about $3.25M for a couple of seasons.

Add these two deals to the mix, and suddenly we're looking at just $10,484,524 to fill the remaining spots. Can the team afford the $4M - $4.5M Andrei Kostitsyn is likely to receive as a UFA? What kind of raises have young RFAs Lars Eller, Alexei Emelin, and Raphael Diaz earned? Those four alone will eat a good chunk of the remaining space, and that's before looking outside the organization to actually improve the roster. Not to mention that the summer of 2013 will require significant pay increases for Max Pacioretty and - if he's still in Montreal by then - David Desharnais, with few deals coming off the books between the two seasons. More dead weight salary needs to go, particularly the contract of Scott Gomez (possibly through a clause in a new CBA that would allow some form of cap hit-free buyout) and Tomas Kaberle (productive, fine, but can't be paying $4.25M for an 8-minute-a-game defenseman, especially if we assume Andrei Markov will be a healthy part of the team).

If we're to believe recent comments, then Pierre Gauthier is getting serious about something fans have been clamouring for: increasing the team's size and toughness. With that goal in mind, and with the idea of shedding the aforementioned salaries, I'd present the following as the current shell of a contending team in Montreal:

Max Pacioretty - 1 - Erik Cole
Andrei Kostitsyn - Tomas Plekanec - Brian Gionta
Rene Bourque - Lars Eller - Brendan Gallagher
2 - 3 - Ryan White

Andrei Markov - Josh Gorges
4 - P.K. Subban
Alexei Emelin - Raphael Diaz

Carey Price
Peter Budaj

The first thing you might notice is that this team isn't hugely different from the group of players currently under contract. As I've said before, I don't think a full-scale rebuild is necessary; just a re-tooling. The next thing you might notice is the lack of David Desharnais. I like the kid. He has performed well beyond anyone's expectations this season. But if this team wants to get bigger and tougher, it needs to start at the center position. One of Desharnais or Tomas Plekanec needs to be replaced with a bigger, tougher body who can match up better against the opposing team's power players. Desharnais seems to be the more logical choice, especially given that his value currently and into the off-season is likely at the highest it will ever be. Third is the insertion of Brendan Gallagher into the line-up. If he plays like he did in training camp this past Fall again next season, I don't think the Canadiens will be able to send him to Hamilton. He plays the kind of hard-nosed game the team needs and will provide secondary scoring on a third line with two bigger linemates. If he isn't ready, Aaron Palushaj may get one last chance to show something at the NHL level after dominating the AHL.

Then we get to the numbers: 4 spots that for next season, to me, would need to be filled from outside the organization. Let's look at each of the spots.

1 - Big, Legitimate First-Line Center: Clearly this is the tough one. Luckily, I'm not asking for miracles all over the place; this is really the only particularly tough spot to fill out of the four. The problem is that it's going to be really really tough to fill, at least for 2012-13. There are absolutely no candidates available on the UFA market, though Tuomo Ruutu comes close. Ruutu would make a good addition, but doesn't address the need for star power or "legit first liners," so he would be a nice complementary piece, if, say Andrei Kostitsyn were upgraded to Zach Parise on the market. Olli Jokinen has had a bit of a rebirth of late in Calgary, but at 33, he's a short term option at best. Another option is the trade market, but of course, you have to give to get, and even when you do, teams aren't lining up to give you a star center. There has been a lot of talk about Ryan Getzlaf being available in Anaheim, and Gauthier would at least have to place a phone call on that one, but any trade will be risky given that Getzlaf could become a UFA in 2013. A signed Getzlaf would be the type of addition that could earn the team contender status, but I have doubts that he could be woo'ed away without a P.K. Subban or Max Pacioretty heading the other way, thus creating gaps elsewhere in the line-up. Thus, the team may have to look elsewhere, perhaps to the San Jose Sharks who have cap issues of their own and could consider moving a Joe Thornton or Patrick Marleau. At 32, Thornton's best days are behind him, but he would sure look good setting up Pacioretty and Erik Cole, and $7M of cap space would be much better spent on him than Gomez. Habs fans have all heard enough of Vincent Lecavalier rumours, but with the Lightning having a disappointing season, they may look at moving him to get out from under the cap. I'd say away, personally, only because of his contract which doesn't expire until 2020. All of this is basically why I said the draft is the only real way to address this primary need. So here's hoping for a little luck and then the slotting of Grigorenko into that spot next year!

2 - Fourth Line Winger: Part of the change in philosophy, I hope, involves making the team tougher to play against. Mathieu Darche may give it his all, but this spot needs to go to a more physical player. At this stage, it doesn't appear that either Andrew Conboy or Ian Schultz - both of whom have had their development stunted by injuries this season - will be ready (if they are even ever to make the bigs), so we'll need to look outside the org for solutions. Fortunately, the UFA market does have some answers here, and this brand of player is likely to come at a cheap price. Some names to consider: Tom Kostopoulos, Brandon Prust, Shawn Thornton, Arron Asham, Daniel Carcillo, Jim Slater, Greg Campbell, Tanner Glass, Adam Burish, or - if his salary demands are acceptable for a fourth line winger - retaining Travis Moen.

3 - Fourth Line Center: It's not that I don't like Petteri Nokelainen, nor do I lack faith in Andreas Engqvist, but like with spot 2, I'm looking for a tough, physical player with size. If that fails, I want a reliable defensive center who is good on draws. Amongst UFAs, Paul Gaustad would seem to be an ideal target, though I could also see the organization easing in Louis Leblanc by starting him in this role.

4 - Top 4 Defensive (or Two-Way) Defenseman: This one is the second toughest after the first line center role, but at least there are plenty of candidates out there. The pairing of Andrei Markov and Josh Gorges should get the most minutes next season, but P.K. Subban needs a veteran to play beside while the stacked prospect stable (Jarred Tinordi, Nathan Beaulieu, and more) take their time developing. If I'm permitted to dream a little, UFA Ryan Suter would look phenomenal in this line-up hole and vastly improve the allure of the team's back end. Francois Beauchemin is average-sized but brings a physical element, while Brad Stuart may be unlikely to leave Detroit but should be a top target if he becomes available. Pavel Kubina is aging, but given his services would only be needed for a year or two while the youngins gain experience, he might look good on Gorges's right (meaning Subban would play with Markov). On the cheaper side, Bryan Allen or Jonny Boychuck would make suitable options that shouldn't add another big contract to the team's cap.

So what would this all look like? Playing a little with the CapGeek.com calculator shows something like the following. We'll assume, for the sake of the exercise, that Desharnais, Palushaj, Weber, and some top picks and prospects are used directly or indirectly (through multiple deals, e.g. trading those 3 players for picks and assets, and using those assets towards a big fish) to land Getzlaf. Is this team a contender? Is it realistic? Is it better than this year's squad? What's your take?

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Ryan Getzlaf ($5.325m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)
Rene Bourque ($3.333m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau ($3.800m) / Lars Eller ($1.500m) / Brendan Gallagher ($0.715m)
Brandon Prust ($0.920m) / Louis Leblanc ($1.170m) / Ryan White ($0.625m)
Andreas Engqvist ($0.900m)

DEFENSEMEN
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)
Francois Beauchemin ($3.800m) / P.K. Subban ($3.250m)
Alexei Emelin ($1.800m) / Raphael Diaz ($1.800m)
Frederic St. Denis ($0.605m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($7.000m) / Peter Budaj ($1.150m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000;
CAP PAYROLL: $63,468,333;
BONUSES: $300,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $831,667

Monday, January 2, 2012

Stick a Fork in Habs for a Brighter Future

As I had suggested last week, the time seems upon us accept the 2011-12 NHL season as lost for the Montreal Canadiens. Let's call it "growing pains" en route to building a Stanley Cup competitive team in Montreal. I had been willing to give the team a couple of weeks post-Christmas to see if there was hope of turning things around, but back-to-back blown lead losses to the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers should put the nail in the coffin.

Again, this isn't a full-scale all-out rebuild. It's a quick re-tool that involves reshaping portions of the team with solutions made up of more than just rental band-aids. Let me repeat that: no rental band-aids. Consider this a plea to Habs management/ownership: may there be no further trades this season that adds to the team's salary cap moving forward with a player of uncertain caliber. And perhaps more importantly, may there be no deal sending away a draft pick or prospect for a rental or immediate help only type player.

Don't worry, Geoff Molson. If you make it clear that this is your strategy, and bring in a new, established General Manager to see it through consistently, then we'll stick with you. We are Habs fans, through and through, and after all these years, can accept one unsuccessful season to bring a Stanley Cup to Montreal before the year 2020. (but if, on the side, you could make sure the Toronto Maple Leafs also miss the playoffs this season, we'd appreciate it)

I'm sure, Mr. Molson, that you don't like paying Scott Gomez so many millions of dollars for him to underperform any more than we like to watch him play at such a cap hit. But now is the time that something must be done to change the make-up of a group that is undersized, not tough enough, and struggles so mightily to score goals. This team, even with these problems, is looking at just $17M in cap space with about 9 roster spots to fill, including new contracts needed for Carey Price, P.K. Subban, Lars Eller, Raphael Diaz, Alexei Emelin, Ryan White, and possibly UFAs Andrei Kostitsyn and/or Travis Moen. That of course is without even glancing at the UFA list of other clubs for possible additions. It seems obvious that salaries like that of Gomez or defenseman Tomas Kaberle MUST be shipped out.

On the bright side, the Canadiens do have a number of pieces in place to work towards a contending team, and a number of prospects on the way who will bolster the group. Three key areas stand out to me as needing improvement to turn this team around, being: (1) Legitimate Star Goal-Scoring Forward(s); (2) Size Up Front; (3) Toughness and/or Size on Defense. Fixing these, in this case, isn't a matter of going out and trading for a rent-a-UFA or just signing a warm body next summer, but rather a restructuring of the personnel in place to accommodate this new philosophy.

(1) Legitimate Star Goal-Scoring Forward(s)

When the Canadiens last blew up their team in 2009, it was evident they needed to find some new players to put pucks in the net. They turned to veteran scorers Brian Gionta and Mike Cammalleri, 5'7" and 5'9" respectively, to complement traded-for playmaking center Scott Gomez (5'11"). Gionta was named captain of the team a year in, and while he could have put up some more points, his goal production is as high as anyone could have hoped for. His two seasons of 29 and 28 prior to this year are the second and third best of his career, trailing only his standout 48-goal 2005-06 performance. Gionta further added 12 goals and 20 points in 26 playoff games.

Cammalleri, on the other hand, has been a regular season disappointment. He came to Montreal having topped the 30-goal mark in two of his previous three seasons, fresh off a 39 goal campaign with the Calgary Flames. Though he had played at least 80 games in three of his four NHL seasons before joining the Canadiens, injuries limited him to 65 and 67 games played here, in which he scored just 26 and 19 goals. Cammalleri has missed 5 games already this year, and if we project his current pace assuming he played 77, he'll continue his decline in production to reach only 18 goals. At $6M per season, Cammalleri is paid to be a star offensive goal-scorer, and while his playoff heroics can't be overlooked (16 goals and 29 points in 26 games), he has not produced at an acceptable level.

A team can afford one streaky undersized scorer at its core, but depending on two as the Canadiens do is a recipe for disaster. To improve the team, at least one of Cammalleri or Gionta should be moved, likely for future assets, and the freed up cap space spent to take another chance on the star goal scorer lottery. Easier said than done with this summer's shallow UFA class, but if they are to make it to July 1 unsigned, the team could and should make runs at Zack Parise, Tuomo Ruutu, Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau, and/or Brad Boyes (likely to come at a discount, high potential reward). Parise is the only true "star calibre" player in the lot, but any in the bunch could conceivably replace the 50 or so points one of Gionta or Cammalleri would score.

The other option is of course the trade market. Despite their struggles this season, I am confident that a playoff team with sufficient cap room would have interest in either Gionta or Cammalleri and that there will be a market for their services. The asset(s) obtained for these players, plus perhaps a top draft pick earned by a poor finish this season could be packaged for a young star forward. Prospect fans may salivate at the thought of adding a top 10 bluechipper this June, but that pick could also be used as a chip to acquire an Eric Staal, Joe Pavelski, Magnus Paajarvi, Shea Weber (ok, not a forward, but still scores goals), or someone else.

Alternatively, of course, if the team becomes a seller early and tanks in the standings, they may be able to acquire a top end offensive player through this summer's draft who could step in within the next couple of seasons. This is a by-product of "sticking a fork in" the Habs' season, or as some might put it, "tanking."

Fortunately, there are a couple of scorers in the pipeline in forwards Brendan Gallagher and Michael Bournival. The two 19-year olds seem quite mature for their age and stage of development, and could be ready for action as soon as some point next year. Still, their prime remains a few years away (and of course there's no guarantee that their scoring will translate at the pro level), so they should be considered supporting cast up-and-comers with the bulk of the duties given to veterans in the meanwhile.

(2) Size Up Front

As mentioned above, the Canadiens pinned much of their hope on three forwards who measure 5'7", 5'9", and 5'11" respectively. Even as they aimed to get bigger this season with the addition of Erik Cole and Max Pacioretty to the top 6 (steps in the right direction), one of their "biggest" offensive catalysts has been yet another 5'7" forward in David Desharnais.

In today's NHL, there is nothing wrong with having a couple of small players. The game has changed to the point where the quickest or most skilled of these undersized skaters can succeed. But just as depending on multiple streaky players can hurt a club, so can depending on many small players, which can turn match-ups against certain lines and teams with bigger and thicker players into disasters. To be most effective, guys like Gionta, Desharnais, and Cammalleri all need to be surrounded by bigger bodies to create space for them rather than playing just with each other. As such, beyond moving a Gionta or Cammalleri, if the team could find a bigger center to replace Desharnais (despite his success this year and cheap contract), the option of selling high on him for the greater good of the team should be looked at.

This is also an area where the prospect pool is quite thin. Realistically, Brendan Gallagher and Danny Kristo may be the only two in the system with top 6 upside, and both are under 6'0". Likely third liners Louis Leblanc and Michael Bournival are roughly 6'0" on the nose, and most of the other forwards are long-shots or projects at best. There is definitely a need to restock the pool in this summer's entry draft, but also a need to free up some roster spots to acquire some bigger bodies through trades and signings.

The most important area to beef up is very likely down the middle, where three of the team's top centers in Tomas Plekanec, David Desharnais, and Scott Gomez are all under 6'0". Only Lars Eller brings size to the equation, and while I'm a big fan of his, his lack of finish thus far leaves his offensive upside a question mark. Having a bigger guy at center opens up a spot to play him with a smaller winger, which could make Tuomo Ruutu a great fit as a summer signing. Ruutu never lived up to his pre-draft billing that made him the 9th overall selection in 2001, but he can still chip in 20 goals and 40+ points with a 6'2" frame that isn't afraid to hit. At 28, he should still have some productive seasons left in him.

On the wing, after a great rookie season in Anaheim, Dustin Penner's career took a big turn for the worse, with this year's production nearing disastrous levels in Los Angeles. If he'll take a paycut, though, he could be an attractive target with his 6'4", 240 lbs frame to provide secondary scoring from a third line. Beyond Penner, the need for size permeates to the fourth line as well where the Canadiens could use a couple of bruisers to make them a tougher team to play against. A legitimate fourth line composed of large NHL'ers who aren't goons (meaning they can play hockey) but can throw a hit would ware down opposing teams and thus help the other lines with their matchups. Some third or fourth line types who could help the team in this aspect include Tom Kostopoulos, Chris Kelly, Jay McClement, Adam Burish, Jim Slater, Dominic Moore, Arron Asham, Taylor Pyatt, and/or Tanner Glass, each of whom is 6'0" or larger.

(3) Toughness and/or Size on Defense

Looking past the forwards, Montreal's back end also needs quite a bit of work. Unlike up front, the team can fortunately look forward to a stacked prospect pipeline that will ensure strong organizational depth as soon as next year, but needs more immediate help to carry the torch until the next generation is ready. Nathan Beaulieu, Jarred Tinordi, Morgan Ellis, and Greg Pateryn should all join the Hamilton Bulldogs next season (and Beaulieu or Tinordi should be ready for emergency call-up duty if necessary as soon as a year from now), with Darren Dietz, Mac Bennett, and perhaps Magnus Nygren likely a year after them. Tinordi is a known commodity to most, being the type of big, tough player the team is short on, but Pateryn fills the mold as well and, turning 22 in June, is more physically mature. Pateryn, if you forget, is the other asset the Canadiens acquired along with a 2nd round pick (later traded for Robert Lang) from the Toronto Maple Leafs in return for Mikhail Grabovski. He is completing his fourth season at the University of Michigan where he plays with Bennett.

But enough about the future. With Andrei Markov, Tomas Kaberle, Yannick Weber, and Raphael Diaz under contract, the Canadiens have far too many smallish, softish, puck-moving offensive-oriented blueliners. Plus there's P.K. Subban who would be most optimally paired with a big, responsible, defensive partner. Hal Gill's age is catching up to him and should be dealt for maximal return by the trade deadline, and likewise for Chris Campoli (though his return will be much less). Josh Gorges (6'1", 200 lbs) and Alexei Emelin (6'2", 223 lbs) are definitely parts of the solution defensively, but the addition of another minute-eating hitter would really round the group out well. Without the ability to bring a Tinordi from the future to the present day, the UFA market offers some interesting possibilities such as Ryan Suter, Brad Stuart, Francois Beauchemin, or Dennis Wideman at the top end, with Bryan Allen, Willie Mitchell, Pavel Kubina, Nicklas Grossman, Shane O'Brien, and Johnny Boychuk as depth-type options. The problem is that signing one of these players is dependent on the Habs finding a way to unload Tomas Kaberle's two remaining seasons at $4.25M a year - easier said than done. Still, I'd have to imagine the Canadiens couldn't be the only team to be curious about him, and so perhaps they can find someone to take him of their hands for no "real" return. I would propose a defense something like the following for next season:

Andrei Markov - Josh Gorges
Top End UFA - P.K. Subban
Alexei Emelin - Raphael Diaz
Frederic St. Denis or depth UFA

With the up-and-comers in the organization, the key might be to find a top end UFA willing to sign for just 2-3 years instead of a long-term contract. Gorges is versatile, able to play either side with ease, and the Emelin - Diaz pairing has shown some nice chemistry this season.


So that's pretty much what it looks like to me. In summary, steps to the Habs' success:

1. Find takers for Gomez + Kaberle
2. Find reasonable offer for either Gionta or Cammalleri
3. Sell UFAs Gill and Campoli; consider re-signing Kostitsyn and Moen, but sell if not signed by deadline
4. Replace talent with new goal scorers, bigger forwards, and tougher defensemen
5. Obtain a top draft pick in 2012
6. ...
7. Profit.

Friday, August 5, 2011

A Day as Pierre Gauthier: Thinking Long-Term

Is Pierre Gauthier done for the summer? Aside from adding a needed depth defenseman for the Hamilton Bulldogs, it looks like the present group of signed players MAY be the team with which the Habs start the season. And if this is the case, Habs fans shouldn't panic. The team has a good enough group to start out strong, and should eventually look to fill holes as we get closer to the trade deadline.

But for today, let's think much longer term than this. As a G.M., Gauthier's job goes far beyond preparing for this season. He must have a plan that looks ahead, ensuring the club will be competitive for years to come. Thanks to CapGeek.com, let's start by looking at the contracts the Canadiens have in place.

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What this tells us is that:

1) Gauthier has cap space to work with in the immediate future
2) A "core" is locked up till at least the summer of 2014
3) Next summer, the biggest priorities will be signing RFAs Carey Price and P.K. Subban long-term

How big of a concern is it that Montreal has big dollar players locked up for the next few seasons? It certainly didn't matter much this summer where the UFA crop was average at best. But the long-term plan must not only consider the team's own players (and prospects of course), but also who may become available in years future.

Of course, we can never be certain exactly who will hit the market. The further ahead we look, the less predictable things become. Most UFA classes look tantalizing a year+ ahead of time, and are whittled down with re-signings well before the July 1st date.

But for fun, let's peek ahead. By the time all is said and done, next summer's unrestricted free agents may not be much more appealing than this year's around the NHL. But as of today, here's a look at a Top 25 names of players who will still be 36 and under come July 1, 2012 and are pending UFAs. We've excluded goaltenders from all UFA lists in this piece as we are making the assumption that Carey Price will be the Habs' starter for the foreseeable future.

Next Summer (2012) UFA Class (Age at UFA) - Top 25

FORWARDS
Semin, Alexander (28)
Smyth, Ryan (36)
Doan, Shane (35)
Penner, Dustin (29)
Hemsky, Ales (28)
Boyes, Brad (30)
Avery, Sean (32)
Umberger, R.J. (30) (re-signed 21/09/11)
Kunitz, Chris (32)
Stoll, Jarret (30)
Parise, Zach (27)
Jokinen, Olli (33)
Grabovski, Mikhail (28)
Kostitsyn, Andrei (27)
Huselius, Kristian (33)

DEFENSEMEN
Liles, John-Michael (31)
Wideman, Dennis (29)
Kubina, Pavel (35)
Beauchemin, Francois (32)
Stuart, Brad (32)
Suter, Ryan (27)
Carle, Matt (27)
Coburn, Brayden (27)
Kronwall, Niklas (31)
Gorges, Josh (27)

Who might the Habs have an eye on hoping he hits the market? Well I think Josh Gorges will be retained well before that day, but if the team doesn't feel prospects like Jarred Tinordi, Rafael Diaz, or others will be set, they may seek to bring in a replacement for Roman Hamrlik; something which wasn't done this summer. Here, names like Ryan Suter, Pavel Kubina, Brad Stuart, and Niklas Kronwall would be terrific additions to bring veteran presence once Hal Gill and Jaroslav Spacek are released back into the wild.

There won't be a real need for an offensive forward, though depending on how this season shakes out and the player of younger forwards on the team, a replacement for Andrei Kostitsyn on a third line might be looked at. Many are penciling Aaron Palushaj into his spot, but he has yet to prove that he will be a consistent NHL player (some might suggest nor has Kostitsyn, but he IS an established 20+goal winger). Depending on the cap hit, R.J. Umberger (who can play both center and wing) or Chris Kunitz could be great fits in that role, replacing the lost size and toughness. Certainly a team with Max Pacioretty, Erik Cole, and one of those two in the top 6 or 9 couldn't be considered "small and soft."

Let's take one more leap ahead. Not knowing what the Canadiens will look like at all two years from now, let's see the possibilities of who might be available to them on July 1, 2013 (again, 36 and under only, and no goaltenders).

2013 UFA Class (Age at UFA) - Top 40

FORWARDS
Crosby, Sidney (25)
Getzlaf, Ryan (28)
Perry, Corey (28)
Iginla, Jarome (36)
Roy, Derek (30)
Staal, Jordan (24)
Morrow, Brenden (34)
Burrows, Alexandre (32)
Clowe, Ryan (30)
Horton, Nathan (28)
Zajac, Travis (28)
Weiss, Stephen (30)
Filppula, Valtteri (29)
Gagne, Simon (33)
Fisher, Mike (33)
Hartnell, Scott (31)
Bouchard, Pierre-Marc (29)
Ribeiro, Mike (33)
Connolly, Tim (32)
McDonald, Andy (35)
Lupul, Joffrey (29)
Brouwer, Troy (27)
Neil, Chris (34)
Cleary, Daniel (34)
MacArthur, Clarke (28)
Armstrong, Colby (30)

DEFENSEMEN
Visnovsky, Lubomir (36)
Edler, Alexander (27)
Enstrom, Tobias (28)
Whitney, Ryan (30)
Regehr, Robyn (33)
Vlasic, Marc-Edouard (26)
Hainsey, Ron (32)
Streit, Mark (35)
Zidlicky, Marek (36)
Scuderi, Rob (34)
Leopold, Jordan (32)
Lydman, Toni (35)
White, Ian (29)
Smid, Ladislav (27)

I'll give you a minute to stop drooling and pick your jaw up off the floor. Even if only 1 out of every 3 names on this list makes it to free agency without re-signing, that's 13 top notch players. Referring back to our list of Habs contracts at the top, during this off-season, we'll still basically already have the first two lines under contract. Meaning if Sidney Crosby wants to play for his boyhood favourite team, or if Gauthier can correct a draft day mistake of passing on Ryan Getzlaf, he's likely to have to find a taker for Scott Gomez first. And this summer would seem to be the time to be rid of Scottie's deal, as while there aren't too many centers on the UFA market in 2012, 2013 offers Crosby, Getzlaf, Derek Roy, Travis Zajac, Valtteri Filppula, and more. Plus, Gomer will have just 1 year left under contract, and be due far less in actual cash for that last year, likely making him quite moveable to a team well under the salary cap.

If you're wondering... the odds that Sidney Crosby signs with the Canadiens that summer? Worse than the chance he can't return to the ice this season and decides to retire. That is to say: not happening.

But what if we're stuck with Gomez's deal. An aging Jarome Iginla could make a great linemate for him on a one year deal. Or if neither Kunitz nor Umberger is signed next summer, what about Brendan Morrow in 2013? Want someone younger? There are budding power forwards in Ryan Clowe and Troy Brouwer. There is plenty of offense from the back end available for teams looking to fix a wonky powerplay, but with a stacked puckmover pipeline like Montreal has, the team may just be looking for some defensive help. In this case, an older player like Robyn Regehr, Rob Scuderi, or Toni Lydman might be a short-term fix. It's early to determine how coveted Ladislav Smid will be by then as he still has much to prove in his game, but he could be a good younger option, along with Marc-Edouard Vlasic.

Throughout the next 2 summers, Montreal has the safety net of Mike Cammalleri, Scott Gomez, Andrei Markov, and Brian Gionta under contract already as a base to build on. But what about when they'll no longer be around? As of today, only Tomas Plekanec and Erik Cole are signed for the 2014-15 season, so while very far away, depending on how things go, we may see turnover similar to the summer of 2009. Fortunately for Mr. Gauthier (assuming he's still in charge at that time), the Canadiens aren't the only ones in this predicament. Here's a look at an enormously talented group of guys that could be available that summer.

2014 UFA Class (Age at UFA) - Top 40

FORWARDS
Malkin, Evgeni (27)
Sedin, Henrik (33)
Sedin, Daniel (33)
Datsyuk, Pavel (36)
Stastny, Paul (28)
Vanek, Thomas (30)
Thornton, Joe (35)
Marleau, Patrick (34)
Brown, Dustin (29)
Heatley, Dany (33)
Cammalleri, Mike (32)
Gaborik, Marian (32)
Bergeron, Patrice (29)
Kessel, Phil (27)
Gionta, Brian (35)
Legwand, David (33)
Michalek, Milan (29)
Callahan, Ryan (29)
Pavelski, Joe (30)
Bolland, Dave (28)
Moulson, Matt (30)
Setoguchi, Devin (27)
Pominville, Jason (31)
Gomez, Scott (34)
Steen, Alexander (30)

DEFENSEMEN
Letang, Kristopher (27)
Bouwmeester, Jay (30)
Phaneuf, Dion (29)
Markov, Andrei (35)
Pitkanen, Joni (30)
Kaberle, Tomas (36)
Gilbert, Tom (31)
Meszaros, Andrej (28)
Orpik, Brooks (33)
Hjalmarsson, Niklas (27)
Tallinder, Henrik (35)
Seidenberg, Dennis (33)
Komisarek, Mike (32)
Girardi, Dan (30)
Ericsson, Jonathan (30)
Phillips, Chris (36)

Cammalleri, Gionta, Gomez, and Markov walk out the door? Tough one, but what if Paul Stastny, Thomas Vanek, Devin Setoguchi, and Kris Letang come in to replace them? Needless to say, the summer of 2014 is shaping up to be an exciting one for all hockey fans.

But for now, we'll put away our crystal balls and just look forward to being a little more than a month away from rookie and training camp. If this article scared you about the Canadiens' future, keep in mind they aren't alone in dealing with players scheduled to hit the market. Look at the Pittsburgh Penguins. 2013 sees Sidney Crosby and Jordan Staal as pending free agents, while in 2014 it will be Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang's turns. Over the same time period, the Leafs will have to deal with Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf, Mike Komisarek, Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur, John-Michael Liles, and Colby Armstrong. Nothing to worry about!

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Around the League: Top 10 Remaining UFA

This off-season has been anything but boring thus far. With tons and tons of UFAs changing teams on July 1st and thereafter, plus several significant blockbuster trades, there has been plenty to keep hockey fans entertained.

And yet, there could still be quite a bit more movement before the puck drops in October. For whatever reason, a number of still-productive NHL caliber players have yet to find employment for the coming season. This has led some - like former Canadien Brent Sopel - to seek deals overseas, but many more should still be expected to join at NHL team for the 2011-12 campaign.

Today we look at 10 guys still available that could provide valuable services somewhere. We intentionally left Teemu Selanne off the list, as his options have been stated as Anaheim or retirement.

10) Kyle Wellwood, C

Wellwood's commitment, intensity, and conditioning are often called into question, but his scoring touch is not. After two years with the Vancouver Canucks (scoring 18 and 14 goals respectively), Wellwood started last year in the KHL, before signing with the St. Louis Blues at mid-season, then being plucked off waivers by the San Jose Sharks. In San Jose, he managed 13 points in 35 games, which would project to 30 points over a full season (which would have been his highest total since 2006-07). So long as he doesn't have to play big minutes 5-on-5, Wellwood could certainly help out a team's powerplay and kick in a bit of secondary scoring on a cheap contract.

9) John Madden, C

A feared shutdown defensive center during his time with the New Jersey Devils, at age 38, Madden is nearing the end of his NHL career. Still, he has topped the 10 goal mark each of the last 2 seasons while playing third line minutes (an average of 15:20 of ice time in 76 games last year). On a cheap contract, Madden would be nice depth for a contender's fourth line, able to kill penalties and with the experience of three Stanley Cups (including most recently in 2010 with the Chicago Blackhawks) under his belt.

8) Brad Winchester, RW

A 6'5", 215 lbs former second round pick, Winchester certainly never lived up to his billing as a potential stud power forward. He became a bit of a journeyman after the Edmonton Oilers lost patience with him, but he has established himself as a solid enough fourth liner, able to use his size to his advantage and drop the gloves occasionally if needed. His nose for the net is still there, with the potential to chip in 10 or so goals for whoever ends up signing him. He seems like he would be a good fit for the Habs, but Pierre Gauthier may decide he has sufficient depth and want to leave a spot for a younger body.

7) Nikolai Zherdev, RW

Thought to be a bluechip future star when drafted 4th overall in the incredibly strong 2003 NHL Entry Draft, Zherdev's career took a tailspin after his inconsistencies saw him moves out of Columbus. After a very respectable 58 point season with the New York Rangers in 2008-09, the club didn't want to pony up the needed cash to retain his services after he was held pointless in 7 playoff games. Thus, he spent 2009-10 in the KHL, before re-emerging with the Philadelphia Flyers this past year. He proved little more than what was already known of him, managing 16 goals in just 56 games, but falling so out of favour with his club that he was waived late in the season and saw time in the press box as a healthy scratch. His agent has stated that his first choice is to have another shot at the NHL (rather than return to Russia), so perhaps he will find a fit elsewhere on a club looking for offense and willing to overlook his defensive and soft play weak points.

6) Chris Campoli, D

Campoli had a falling out with the Chicago Blackhawks which led to his becoming an unrestricted free agent this summer. An offensively gifted average-sized blueliner, Campoli still managed 19 minutes of ice a night last year and is a solid #5 (at worst) defenseman on a good team. His defensive zone coverage may not be the best and he is on the soft side, but paired with a physical partner he could be a great value signing at this point. A warning, however, that while he could still improve having just turned 27, he shouldn't be counted on as a true powerplay quarterback, since he has shown inconsistencies in his productivity.

5) Chris Drury, C

Handed a ridiculously inflated contract by the New York Rangers (along with Scott Gomez), Drury was just bought out of the final season of his deal. His contract became a disaster when his offense trailed off after his first two seasons in New York. At this point in his career (he'll be 35 when the season begins), he should slot in as a third or fourth line center. He's a reliable vet who can play at both ends of the rink, and in the right situation may have a bit of a revival offensively if given the chance. The fact that he's a right-handed center alone - a valuable commodity - should earn him a job somewhere.

4) Colin White, D

The newest player on the UFA market as a salary cap casualty in New Jersey, White is coming off likely the worst season in his career. As a purely defensive defenseman, it isn't his 6 points in 69 games that were concerning, but rather the dip in his play is best exemplified in a drop from over 20 minutes of ice time a night in 2009-10 to under 19 minutes in 2010-11. At 6'4" and 215 lbs, White uses his body effectively and can bring a physical component to any club on a cheap short-term contract. Despite his poor play on an inconsistent Devils club, he still led the team in shorthanded time on ice per game last season by a whole 25 seconds over his closest teammate. For my money, he'd be a great pick-up to round out the Canadiens defense.

3) Cory Stillman, LW

At age 37, Stillman is also nearing the end of a long and successful career, most of which was spent as a highly underrated and under-appreciated journeyman winger. To his credit, wherever Stillman has played, he has been productive, though he was limited to 39 points last season (BUT he spent most of it on a poor Florida Panthers team, putting up 16 points in the final 21 games after being traded to the Carolina Hurricanes). A bit on the soft side, his offensive instinct and playmaking ability is undeniable, and he is likely just waiting for the "right" offer before deciding where to continue his career. He will bring his new team a wealth of experience, having won Stanley Cups in back to back seasons with the Tampa Bay Lightning and Hurricanes, notching 26 points in 25 playoff games in 05-06 with the Canes.

2) Bryan McCabe, D

After numerous teams were interested in his services at the trade deadline, it is a bit of a mystery that Bryan McCabe remains unsigned. Perhaps his salary expectations were too high after a disappointing 6 points and -1 in 19 contests after joining the New York Rangers last season. What he lacks defensively he makes up for with a booming pointshot, and so if Sheldon Souray can find an NHL spot, there is no reason McCabe can't as well. He's a good vet who averaged over 19 minutes last year and would be best playing with a mobile defensive d-man at even strength, plus on a top powerplay.

1) Scott Hannan, D

Hannan is a very similar player to Colin White, slightly less physical and smaller but more mobile as a result. Like White, he has seen better days at the NHL level, never developing into the player the San Jose Sharks had initially hoped for after leaving for Colorado. He still did play close to 20 minutes a night last year, including 2:40 per game shorthanded, and at age 32 should still have some mileage left in the tank. Another alternative for a player I'd love to see Montreal pick-up with their remaining cap and roster space to play on a bottom pairing with a youngster (where he'd be a better fit than the weaker defensively Jaroslav Spacek).

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Around the League: 10 UFA Signings who will Outperform their Contract

The general consensus on July 1 was that with a very average talent pool available, many General Managers went overboard, awarding far too generous contracts to only marginal talent. However, there were some deals handed out that day and beyond that we would categorize as belonging to the bargain bin. Thus, today we'll give our picks for 10 UFA contracts around the league that will show to be bargains over the course of this season. Note that this doesn't mean we feel these are the 10 most impactful/best signings, just that they will bring the most value per dollar earned.

10) Sheldon Souray, D, Dallas Stars
1 year, $1.65M

After being bought out by the Edmonton Oilers, it didn't take Sheldon Souray long to find new employment. Now at age 35, certainly Souray's game isn't what it was in Montreal (and even then it had its deficiencies), but comparing it to contracts given out to other aging defensemen, this deal will pay major dividends to the Stars organization. A poor fit in Edmonton led to his playing all of 2010-11 in the AHL, but Souray can bring a lot to an NHL club with his toughness, leadership, and booming point shot. It will be interesting to see how he is used in Dallas, with Stephane Robidas and Alex Goligoski already manning the blueline on the powerplay. Look for a bounce back year from Sheldon to prove that he isn't washed up and his time in Edmonton was simply a bad situation.

9) Zenon Konopka, C, Ottawa Senators
1 year, $700K

Many wanted Konopka with the Habs, myself included, and at this price, he should be a good deal for the Ottawa Senators. Not hugely impactful considering he'll play roughly 10 minutes a night on a fourth line, but an important player who can hit, fight, take face-offs, and kill penalties if needed. If he has a good year in Ottawa, the Sens should be able to draw quite a bit of interest in his services at the trade deadline given that they project to be a non-playoff team this season, and thus the signing should give them a "free" extra draft pick next summer for just $700K. Good value.

8) Matt Gilroy, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
1 year, $1M

It was just 2 years ago in the summer of 2009 that Gilroy was considered a prize college UFA signing by the New York Rangers. New York bench boss John Tortorella is a polarizing character, and playing in the Rangers system may have just been a poor fit for the 6'1" two-way blueliner. Look for a breakout season under Guy Boucher in Tampa as part of a very underrated defense corps on a talented club.

7) Jason Arnott, C, St. Louis Blues
1 year, $2.8M

Like Souray, Arnott's best days are well behind him, but at 36, he is still a far better player than his 24 points in 62 games with the New Jersey Devils last year indicated. For under $3M, depending on the ice and powerplay time he receives on a Blues club filled with offensive forwards, Arnott should top the 50 point mark, making him a great bargain. In St. Louis, he will provide leadership and experience to a young Blues team, but if the youth should struggle, the club should be able to obtain a reasonable asset from a playoff team wanting a 6'5" center with a Stanley Cup ring.

6) Sami Lepisto, D, Chicago Blackhawks
1 year, $750K

I advocated for Montreal to pick up Lepisto after he became a UFA, but in the end one can't fault him for joining a well-restocked Chicago Blackhawks team that had room to spend following the dumping of Brian Campbell's contract on the Florida Panthers. The Finnish defenseman is entering his prime at 26 years of age and while his offensive game hasn't translate at the NHL level, he can play solid minutes with sound play in his own end. While he will be surrounded with other quality defensemen in Chicago, he may surprise and earn a top 4 spot on the blueline if pressed into service, as he is capable of playing upwards of 20 minutes a night.

5) Nicklas Bergfors, RW, Nashville Predators
1 year, $575K

A classic very low risk, potential high reward signing, Bergfors has bounced around the league over the past 2 seasons, with stops in New Jersey, Atlanta, Florida, and now Nashville. Bergfors has shown he's capable of putting up points at the professional level, and the Predators aren't deep in talented offensive forwards (see: last year's team leading scorer, Sergei Kostitsyn) so he will be given a great opportunity to earn an important spot. Plus, as long as he gets powerplay time, he's sure to rack up quite a few helpers with the "pass it to Shea Weber" plan.

4) Jaromir Jagr, RW, Philadelphia Flyers
1 year, $3.3M

A controversial inclusion on the list, no doubt, as many thought the Flyers overpaid in going up to $3.3M to woo Jagr. I will go on record as being a believer that his doubters will be eating crow later this season and that Jagr will have a successful year of 60 or more points. Philadelphia has a lot to justify in terms of their off-season transactions, so they are sure to give Jagr every chance to succeed in trying to prove they made the right decisions. It may also prove to be a great fit since the Flyers have shown they won't tolerate complaining players and off-ice issues, even waiving forward Nikolai Zherdev towards the end of a 16-goal campaign.

3) Simon Gagne, LW, Los Angeles Kings
2 years, $7M

Yes, he's a bit of a risk due to health concerns, but Gagne is a talented sniper who found his game in the playoffs last year scoring 12 points in 15 contests. Twice a 40-goal scorer in Philadelphia, Gagne will be reunited with former Flyer Mike Richards on a Kings team with what has become a scary-looking top 6 up front (Richards, Gagne, Anze Kopitar, Dustin Penner, Dustin Brown, and Justin Williams). Getting back over the 20 goal mark should be a given, and if he can play a full season (which he hasn't since 2008-09, however), 30 is not out of the question, which would make this an awesome steal for Los Angeles.

2) Steve Sullivan, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins
1 year, $1.5M

The diminutive Sullivan has been proving doubters wrong his entire career and after the injury bug struck him again last season, he decided to end his 6 year stint with the Nashville Predators to sign with the Penguins. The 5'9" winger has had success in every city he's played, and which ever center he lines up with in Pittsburgh (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Jordan Staal), he should produce beyond the .5 PPG clip he had going last year. At just $1.5M for one season, the Penguins might have added a 20+ goal scorer to give them the offensive depth they sorely lacked when Crosby and Malkin went down last year.

1) Tomas Vokoun, G, Washington Capitals
1 year, $1.5M

The obvious choice as everyone's top signing, Vokoun took well below his true market value to sign with the Washington Capitals in hopes of winning a Stanley Cup. At 35 years of age, the former Habs draft pick has proven he's a top netminder in the league posting save percentages of .920 or better anually on poor Florida Panthers teams. Even after trading Semyon Varlamov, the Capitals will have a logjam in nets this year, and the competition with the young Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth will push Vokoun to be at his best to retain starting duties. While they may have to make a move at some point to manage their salary cap situation, Washington has a deep team and has shored up both their blueline and goaltending, making them an early favourite for a deep playoff run.

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Habs sign B. Willsie, trade for M. Blunden

For a second consecutive day, Montreal Canadiens General Manager Pierre Gauthier was busy in preparing the roster of the Hamilton Bulldogs for the 2011-12 season. Today he announced the signing of forward Brian Wilsie to a 2-way contract, and announced the team has traded forward Ryan Russell to the Columbus Blue Jackets for forward Michael Blunden.

Wilsie, 33, has played 381 NHL games. Though few may remember, he did the Habs a huge favour on April 17, 2006. He scored the game-winning goal in a 6-4 Capitals victory over the Atlanta Thrashers - a win that clinched a playoff spot for the Canadiens in the 2005-06 season. That was a career year for Wilsie, who topped the 40 point mark for the only time in the National League. The 6'1", 202 lbs forward is nearing the end of his career, appearing in only 5 NHL contests in total over the last 2 years, but being a dominant AHL scorer, with 57 points last season. He will be a great replacement for the likes of Dustin Boyd who moved from the AHL to the KHL.

Blunden, 24, is an intriguing acquisition at a minimal cost (Russell had no future in Montreal) and on a 1-year, 2-way deal. A 2nd round pick in 2005, the 6'3", 207 lbs winger has 51 NHL games to his name between the Chicago Blackhawks and Columbus Blue Jackets, but has shown little offensive upside at that level. Still, like Wilsie, he is productive in the American League and will add size and experience to a young Bulldogs team. Most notably, as a big body who can drop the gloves to defend teammates, Blunden fills a bigger organizational need than 5'10" Russell, providing fourth line depth in case of future injuries.

Monday, July 4, 2011

Top 10 UFAs Still Available for Habs

NHL Free Agency opened with a real bang over the weekend, and many of the top players available were quick to sign new deals. The Canadiens themselves managed to add both Erik Cole and Peter Budaj, and sit with a roster that is at least as close to contending as any they've had in recent years.

However, they've still got some cap room, and there is tinkering that can still be done to increase their chances. This is no to say Pierre Gauthier will necessarily move this summer, as he may choose to wait it out and see what kind of players appear on the trade wire, but if he does want to spend before training camp, there are still a few names out there that may draw his attention.

To assess the type of player(s) we may want to add, let's look at where we stand today, projecting out the roster for opening night:

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Mike Cammalleri ($6.000m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)
Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / Scott Gomez ($7.357m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)
David Desharnais ($0.850m) / Lars Eller ($1.270m) / Andrei Kostitsyn ($3.250m)
Ryan White ($0.650m*) / Andreas Engqvist ($0.900m) / Travis Moen ($1.500m)
Mathieu Darche ($0.700m)

DEFENSEMEN
Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.000m*)
Hal Gill ($2.250m) / P.K. Subban ($0.875m)
Jaroslav Spacek ($3.833m) / Alexei Yemelin ($0.984m)
Yannick Weber ($0.850m)

GOALTENDERS
Carey Price ($2.750m) / Peter Budaj ($1.150m)

BUYOUTS: Georges Laraque ($0.500m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $60,545,509; BONUSES: $400,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $3,754,491

First, this roster is at 22 players, meaning the team could add another forward or defenseman with their remaining $3.75M without cutting anyone. The most obvious need for an upgrade is on defense, where ideally Jaroslav Spacek would be moved and a legitimate top 4 (or better) caliber player is brought in. But given that Spacek is unlikely to find a new home right now, there is still room to bring in a solid, veteran defensive player who could help in the development of one of our younger players (Alexei Yemelin or Yannick Weber).

Up front, there is room to add one forward, where the biggest need would seem to be a tough fourth liner. When both are in the line-up, one of Lars Eller or David Desharnais would play out of position on the wing, so a top 9 winger could also be brought in to resolve that, though neither pivot is particularly fitting of a fourth line role, meaning something may have to be done to clear the logjam.

With that in mind, let's see who is left that might fit the bill. For our full list of candidates, see our Free Agent Frenzy coverage HERE. (remember, this isn't Top 10 UFA available, where Tomas Kaberle would lead the list, but rather Top 10 remaining for the consideration of the Habs)


10) Cory Stillman, LW

If the Habs want to ensure some instant chemistry with Erik Cole, picking up 37-year old Stillman will accomplish this cheaply. Stillman could replace Halpern in the aging veteran role, and would mean we wouldn't have to shift either Desharnais or Eller to the wing. A better fit would be a bigger, tougher player, but the 6'0" Stillman showed life after re-joining the Hurricanes last year with 16 points in 21 games. It Kostitsyn is to stay with Plekanec and Cammalleri, and Pacioretty with Gomez and Gionta, a "third" line of Stillman - Eller - Cole could rival any in the league.

9) Antti Miettinen, RW

Similar to Stillman, there is no dire need for Miettinen, but he keeps a third line offensive without shifting a center to the wing, while adding two-way forward depth. Able to score goals and play the penalty kill, the 31-year old 6'0" Finn is just one year removed from a 20-goal campaign. His quick, straight-line game seems like it would jive well with Jacques Martin's coaching style, which enhances the value we place on him.

8) Brent Sopel, D

The last piece we really would like to see added to the Habs roster is a defensive d-man who could reliably play with a youngster (Alexei Yemelin or Yannick Weber). Since he isn't truly a top 4 guy, Sopel only becomes an option if we can find a taker for the much-maligned Jaroslav Spacek, which would still allow us to add and upgrade at the trade deadline (here's looking at you, Ryan Suter), and only on a 1-year deal. Still, he's a good vet who showed his worth in the post-season last year, able to block shots and help keep the net-front clear. A return would be quite unlikely, but then the market is thinning rapidly.

7) Jason Arnott, C

Andreas Engqvist may be NHL-ready, but it also wouldn't hurt for him to start the year with the Bulldogs. Even if his offensive game is tappering off, as a 6'5", 220 lbs center, Arnott could easily grab a regular spot on the fourth line and move up in case of injury or a repeat performance of last year by one Scott Gomez. It would all come down to his willingness to take a cheap one year deal, but if he does, the low risk could produce high reward. After getting out of New Jersey, Arnott did score 8 points in 11 regular season games and 6 in 9 playoff contests with the Capitals last year.

6) Brad Winchester, LW

I'm not the biggest fan of Winchester's overall game, but if the Habs want to add some size and muscle to a fourth line, they could do worse. At 6'5", 228 lbs, Winchester doesn't back down from anyone and can drop the gloves when needed. At the age of 30, it is clear he won't live up to the scoring potential seen in him as a junior-aged player drafted in the 2nd round, but he can still chip in 7-10 goals in the right situation.

5) Ty Conklin / Patrick Lalime, G

The Canadiens MUST add at least one more goaltender to the organization, and possibly two. While its more likely they'll sign a Drew MacIntyre or Cedrick Desjardins, given my low confidence level in Peter Budaj, I'd love to see them sign one of these two credible back-ups and let him compete with Budaj for the #2 job in Montreal. Unlikely since it would mean sending one of these vets on a one-way contract down to the AHL (not really the team's thing to do), but it would provide nice depth in goal.

4) Sami Lepisto, D

Lepisto is flying under the radar right now, but with reasonable size at 6'1", and just 26 years of age, he would be a signing with good potential upside. The Finnish native's defensive game is sound, boasting a +14 rating in Phoenix a year ago, and a +10 split between Phoenix and Columbus this past season, over which he averaged about 18 minutes a night. A sound third pairing player, though his offensive production is minor, he is a reasonable puck mover, and would be a sound choice as a third pairing d-man alongside an Alexei Yemelin if signed to a cheap contract.

3) Shane O'Brien, D

The similarities between Shane O'Brien and Ryan O'Byrne stretch far beyond their family names. At 6'3", 224 lbs, he has an imposing frame and takes advantage of it in laying out large hits when he can. He isn't the most mobile of players, however, so he can get beat by speedy forwards, meaning he might not be the ideal partner for one of Montreal's young defenseman, but does bring a lacking element of physicality. After struggling to find a niche for himself in Vancouver, the Ontario native played 80 games for Nashville last year, averaging 18 minutes a night, but saw his time reduced in the playoffs as #5 on the Predators depth chart (but still taking a regular penalty kill shift).

2) Zenon Konopka, C

As mentioned, the Habs could stand to add a fourth line center, which is the only role Konopka is suited to, but one he has grown well into. Playing just 10 minutes a night for the Islanders last year, the 6'0", 209 lbs Konopka is a modern day enforcer, in the sense that he had to develop other skills to be able to stick around the league. With a league-high 307 penalty minutes last year, he would add some protection for the smaller Montreal forwards, but the team must also be wary of adding such a player to a club that already led the league in minor penalties last season. He does, however, help in another area where the Canadiens were weak, finishing 4th in the NHL with a 57.7 face-off win percentage. Given the price that a guy like Mike Rupp signed for this summer, I'd be scared of what Konopka might cost with his limited hockey sense and skillset, but if it's a short-term deal, the risk is minimal.

1) Scott Hannan, D

Hannan could step in as a strong replacement for Roman Hamrlik, minus the powerplay minutes. He played in 78 games last year, averaging about 20 minutes a night, and then was second amongst all Washington Capitals in the post-season at over 23 minutes per game. Dependable defensively, playing a third pairing role, he is an ideal guy to cover for Yannick Weber and/or Alexei Yemelin's rookie mistakes early on. While he has no offensive game to speak of (a la Gill), one area where Hannan has a big advantage over Hamrlik and James Wisniewski is in discipline, in that while he can play a physical defensive game, he takes few penalties. The only concern is that, at age 32, he's likely looking to cash in on a last multi-year deal, which would be risky for cap space moving forward. If he'll sign short-term in the neighbourhood of $3M a year, it would cap off a near-perfect summer in my eyes.