Restocking the Cupboard #3: Up, Up, or Away

[This is the third of a five-part series, going live every Wednesday on http://www.YourCanadiens.Info/, previewing possible Hab selections for the 2012 Entry Draft.  See Part 1, about who the team might pick if they hold steady at #3, HERE, and Part 2, about the possibility of trading down, HERE]

Welcome to the final piece devoted specifically to Montreal's third overall selection at this year's NHL Entry Draft, now just over two weeks away.  We talked about who to take at pick #3, we looked at the possibility of trading down if the Habs don't like who is on the board there, so what's left?

From fans on Twitter and forums, to radio talk show hosts, to television personalities, much has been made about the possibility of Montreal trading up to the first overall selection to draft Nail Yakupov.  There are questions about Mikhail Grigorenko's compete level, Alex Galchenyuk's repaired knee, and Filip Forsberg's offensive output, so Yakupov by default may be the closest the draft has to a "sure thing" offensively.  If Montreal doesn't walk away from a draft where they hold a third overall selection with an impact player, fans will be quick to turn on the new front office regime, so perhaps the safest route for Marc Bergevin, Trevor Timmins, and company would be to pony up another asset or two to be able to take the consensus best player available.

What would it cost to get Edmonton to swap down to third overall, where they will still be able to take the guy widely believed to be their man in defenseman Ryan Murray?  The most commonly discussed scenario would see Montreal giving up picks 3 and 33 for the first overall pick, which is considerable when you look at who may still be on the board at 33 for the Canadiens (coincidentally, we will look at that right here in Restocking the Cupboard #4 next week).  Personally, I'd be ok with making that sacrifice to add the kind of superstar we haven't seen in Montreal in ages.  But before we dig a little deeper into this, let's look at Yakupov's game.

Tantalizing skill and plays with an edge, what's not to like?  Well, at 5'11" and 190 lbs, though not Brendan Gallagher-sized, he doesn't bring the kind of frame that many would like to see Montreal adding.  He's a winger, and likely ready to step into the big league right away, so he could fill an immediate need beside Tomas Plekanec, but doesn't address the problem this team has had for years in the need for a big offensive center, something far more difficult to address via free agency or trade than a scoring wing.

Yakupov is a strong, agile skater, able to burn defenders with shifty moves.  He has a quick release which makes him a threat on every rush and shows the ability to create time and space for himself despite his small stature.  He's basically the complete, electrifying package offensively.  Some have concerns about his play in his own end, but those that doubt Yakupov point to incongruities between his size and style, wondering if his physical play will be successful against bigger and older opposition at the pro rank, and concern that it may lead to an injury-plagued career.  Still, no one doubts he is the most talented player available on draft day.

Some have suggested that picks 3 and 33 are too much to give up for Yakupov.  That the Canadiens should offer picks 3 and 51, or 3 and a defenseman like Yannick Weber, Raphael Diaz, or even a Brendon Nash.  I just don't see that as being enough for Edmonton because, while they would still get their man at 3, the Columbus Blue Jackets won't sit idly by and let another club snatch Yakupov from under their noses (ignore what those who suggest they won't take him because he's Russian say).  That means that even if swapping picks with Montreal is no skin off Edmonton's back, Columbus will bid the price of landing Yakupov up, so frankly, I don't even know if picks 3 and 33 will be sufficient to get it done.

Now where do I stand on the possibilities?  If Montreal is planning on taking Alex Galchenyuk (my preference, who by the way, led all prospects in last week's NHL Combine Anaerobic Test, a gauge for the most explosive skating) third overall, then I'd probably rather hold on to picks 3 and 33.  If Yakupov can be had for pick 3 and a toss-in like one of the defensemen I mention above - a highly unlikely scenario - then I'd be in favour of the move, as the team will still add two other solid prospects in the second round.  Even despite his size, though, at this point, I would far and away rather the team give up what it costs to nab Yakupov than use the top pick on either Forsberg or Grigorenko.

There is another topic worth mentioning, which is the idea of using the third overall selection as a trade chip to land an established or previously-drafted player.  As opposed to trading up or down, the Canadiens would altogether forego a first round selection to bring in someone they like better than the prospects available.  The most commonly mentioned name when this is discussed is that of Jonathan Huberdeau, the Saint John Sea Dogs star who was taken one year ago, also third overall, by the Florida Panthers.  Huberdeau, who could also fill the "need" for more French-speaking, home-grown talent with the Canadiens, was limited to just 37 games this season, but had a near 2.0 points-per-game average, with 72 on the year.  He brings decent size at 6'1", 171 lbs, has a good friendship with Canadiens' prospect Nathan Beaulieu, and unlike the players to be drafted in a few weeks, can play in the AHL if he isn't deemed NHL-ready in the Fall, though most believe he will be.

The problem here?  There is no reason to suggest that the Panthers would consider moving Huberdeau, who they inked to an entry-level deal last Fall, and even if they would, it is doubtful that any of the players available third overall this year would be sufficient bait to have them bite.  After making the playoffs this season, Florida will be looking to add to its roster, which a guy like Huberdeau can do, rather than delaying by taking on a less-ready youngster.  If you want Huberdeau, you're talking a name like P.K. Subban going back the other way.  Maybe Florida would consider an offer like the third overall pick AND a Lars Eller.  In my books, it just doesn't add up.

Other players talked about as potential returns for the third selection include Rick Nash, Ryan Getzlaf, and Jarome Iginla.  In the first two cases, it would take considerably more than the pick alone, which would be a huge gamble for Getzlaf who can become an unrestricted free agent just one year from now.  I'm not ready to sacrifice that much for a guy like Nash either, who while he could make a great addition, has production just a notch below the "superstar" type I'm hoping for.  I think any talk of Iginla is a non-starter for all, given his age and declining production.  A team very close to a championship might make such a move, but certainly not a team in Montreal's position.  In sum, I just don't see the Canadiens dealing this pick away as realistic.  They will select a top prospect in the first round.


We've now covered pretty much all possibilities for the third overall pick.  My preference remains either selecting Alex Galchenyuk, or trading up for Nail Yakupov, either of which would make me happy at night's end.  Next week, we turn our attention towards the other Montreal selections, offering suggestions and predictions for each, before our final installment - the week of the draft - will be a full 30-team Mock Draft of the first two rounds.

A Tale of Two Coaches

As much as I've tried not to believe the rumours, it is at this point hard to believe that Montreal isn't down to at most two candidates in their head coaching search in Michel Therrien and Marc Crawford.  Many fans have been hoping there would be some third off-the-radar candidate who would come in and steal the job away, but all three major hockey networks - TSN, RDS, and SportsNet - have been reporting the same facts for a few days now.  And the problem is that even if these weren't the only two names in the pot, with Bob Hartley in Calgary and Patrick Roy's demands allegedly being far too great, given the team's self-imposed "must speak French" rule, there aren't many other qualified candidates out there.  I've said before and maintain that I have faith in Marc Bergevin right now and will be happy to give a chance to whoever he deems the best man to execute his vision for the Montreal Canadiens, but on the day he opts for one of Therrien or Crawford, I will not be a happy sheep applauding his selection.  Here's a look at the two candidates to give you an idea of why:

Michel Therrien

Many Habs fans are quick to spit out, "been there, done that," when Therrien's name comes up.  I find that a bit of a naive approach to his candidacy; just because a guy held the job a decade ago, doesn't mean he wouldn't have learned from mistakes or be a better fit today.  The qualifications of candidates should be based on what Bergevin thinks they can do today.

At age 48, Therrien still has plenty of years in the sport left ahead of him, which is a positive for a team seeking stability.  In his playing career, he never made it beyond the AHL, though he did spend a couple of seasons in the Habs' system with the Nova Scotia Voyageurs and Sherbrooke Canadiens.  His full-time head coaching career began in 1993-94 with the QMJHL's Laval Titan, and he led the Granby Predateurs to a league championship after taking over the club in 1995-96.  Returning to the Canadiens' organization, he spent four seasons as the Head Coach of the team's AHL affiliate (two in Fredericton and two in Quebec) before replacing Alain Vigneault as Coach of the Habs some 20 games into the 2000-01 campaign.  That team would fail to qualify for the post-season, but he would lead Montreal back to the playoffs the following year, and upset the top seed Boston Bruins in the first round in six games (which included a fine to Therrien for making a throat-slitting gesture at Kyle McLaren after he nearly took Richard Zednik's head off with a dirty below, though Hab fans will forgive him for that one).  

What likely sealed his fate were clear coaching errors in the second round.  Montreal looked poised to complete a second straight upset, up 2-1 in the series against the Carolina Hurricanes and leading game 4 by a 3-0 score in the third period.  Perhaps Therrien momentarily forgot where he was, but he was a bit too vocal with referee Kerry Fraser in arguing a cross-checking call and earned himself an additional 2 minute bench minor for unsportsmanlike conduct.  The 'Canes took advantage to get back in the game, and found themselves down just 1 goal entering the final minute of regulation.  Current Hab Erik Cole scored to tie things up, and Therrien committed another gaff in OT with a face-off in the Montreal end.  Known as an Xs and Os coach who goes with gut feelings on who is hot on a given night, the coach sent out Bill Lindsay - a winger playing out of position in the middle - to take a defensive end faceoff in the extra frame.  Lindsay had the best FO win percentage in the game, but it was still far from a strength of his, not to mention that the team featured face-off whiz Yanic Perreault and shutdown center Joe Juneau, along with responsible veterans Doug Gilmour and Saku Koivu.  Lindsay lost the draw cleanly, and the puck came back to the point where Nic Wallin fired one home.  The Canadiens showed no life following that crushing defeat, losing in two straight blowouts.

Therrien was fired halfway through the following year with his team playing at an under .500 clip, but would rebound the following season with the AHL affiliate of the Pittsburgh Penguins.  He led the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins to the Calder Cup Final in his first season with the team, and in his third year with the team got it off to a 21-1-3 start, leading to his replacing Ed Olcyzk as bench boss with the big club.  He would take Pittsburgh to the Stanley Cup Final in 2007-08, but after losing to the Detroit Red Wings, would be canned 57 games into the following season with his team just above the .500 mark despite a stacked roster.  The team's disappointing start is largely blamed on Therrien since Dan Bylsma took over the club and led them to a Stanley Cup win that very same season.  

Therrien also gained a reputation throughout his career as being a coach that his own players hate, given his tactic of trying to get under their skin to motivate them to deliver their best.  A prime example was on display in this now infamous press conference:

I fully understand that people can learn from their mistakes, and coaches can evolve over time.  However, Therrien hasn't been in coaching since that 2008-09 season, instead currently serving as a scout for the Minnesota Wild, so we have no way to know what kind of attitudes or demeanour he would bring to the job.  Still, he's a candidate in part largely due to a good off-ice relationship with Bergevin, who has shown a strong propensity for hiring those he knows well  or are within his inner circle thus far.  It is important that Bergevin hires someone who is on the same page as him, and a guy he feels he can work with on a daily basis, as a team's GM and Head Coach need to be able to agree on how the players brought in should be used.  From the front office to the coaching staff, a team will only play to its highest potential if all have a unified vision.

Marc Crawford

51-year old Marc Crawford is hoping his stint as a television analyst will last only one season by getting back into the realm of coaching.  While his playing career was only moderately more successful than Therrien's - he played 176 NHL games, all with the Vancouver Canucks - Crawford brings with him 15 years experience as an NHL head coach.  His transition from playing to coaching began in the OHL where he led the Cornwall Royals for two seasons with little success, but enough to earn him a chance as Coach of the AHL's St. John Maple Leafs.  He brought the team to the Calder Cup Final in his first season there, and after second round exits the following two seasons, was named Head Coach of the Quebec Nordiques for the lockout-shortened 1994-95 campaign.

Crawford stayed with the organization when they moved to Colorado, winning the Stanley Cup in 1996, and taking the team led by Patrick Roy, Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg, and others back to the Conference Finals a year later.  When his star-studded Avs were knocked out in round 1 in 1998, he was relieved of his duties, re-emerging with the Vancouver Canucks midway through the following season.  

Crawford coached the Canucks for 7 seasons but never made it past the second round of the playoffs, missing them altogether three times.  The 2003-04 season - his second to last - is the one that most will criticize him for.  In an incident that few should need to be reminded of, in a February 16, 2004 game, Colorado's Steve Moore concussed Vancouver captain Markus Naslund with a hit that was missed by officials, and deemed unsuspendable by the league.  Rather than calm and re-focus his club, Crawford stoked some fires, criticizing officials and suggesting the league should offer protection for its superstars.  While the next Avs-Nucks matchup was relatively uneventful, a subsequent game got ugly.  With Vancouver trailing by a big score, Todd Bertuzzi looked to make a statement by battling Moore, who wanted no part of the larger man, already having answered the bell to a bout with tough guy Matt Cooke in the first period.  When Moore ignored the invitation to drop the gloves, Bertuzzi grabbed Moore from behind, pulled him by the jersey, and punched him to the back of the head, falling on top of him which drove his face into the ice.  

When words like "pre-meditated" get thrown around, you have to look at the Coach as not having proper control of his players, particularly given the act occurred at a time when the game's outcome was out of reach.  Some accounts of that game had Crawford chuckling while watching Bertuzzi's actions, though this is nothing but rumour (others saw Bertuzzi acted in stark contrast to Crawford's instructions).  The other problem is that this issue has not been laid to rest, with an ongoing lawsuit on Moore's part (his career was ended by the "attack") having Crawford as one of the defendants, and Bertuzzi himself even indicating that Crawford should share in the blame due to his inciting the team to, "make Moore pay the price."  This off-ice sideshow could serve as a distraction for a team, particularly in a media-frenzied city like Montreal.

But it isn't just about "the incident."  Crawford missed the playoffs the following season, and would also miss them in his next two years with Los Angeles.  Crawford drew fire from many by encouraging his General Manager with the Kings to acquire his starting netminder from Vancouver in Dan Cloutier, a goaltender that many held in rather low regard.  Dismal .415 and .433 winning percentages cost him his job with the Kings, and after a year off, he was named Coach of the Dallas Stars, where he also failed to reach the playoffs in consecutive years.  Crawford was fired in 2011 and joined the TSN panel having missed the post-season for each of his final five seasons.

Crawford is known as a tactician, being one of the pioneers of the 1-3-1 trap system.  He has a relationship with Bergevin, having served as his Coach for the final 9 games of Bergevin's career (in Vancouver) in 2003-04.  To his credit, he has watched more Montreal Canadiens and other Canadian team games this past season than most who would be considered candidates for the job, having to analyze them and breakdown many aspects for the television audience.  But is he a good fit in Montreal?  As Crawford himself said in a recent interview, "The most important thing in any job is that the general manager and coach are on the same page." If Bergevin thinks Crow is that guy for him, then he will get the job.

Of the two, I'm not a particular fan of either.  My only hope is that whichever is named brings along some experienced Assistants who may compensate for some of his areas of weakness (e.g. a Larry Robinson or Andy Murray).

A Day as Habs GM: Getting Rid of Gomez

As the real Marc Bergevin spends today in Shawinigan getting ready to take in some of the action with four Montreal Canadiens prospects taking part in this week's Memorial Cup, and with a planned update on the coaching situation for the media this afternoon, I thought I'd take a different docket off his hands.  So today, we'll enter his shoes to address the up-in-the-air Scott Gomez situation.

If you'll remember back to the day Bergevin was hired, there was a non-sensical rumour circulated by Dave Morissette of TVASports that a decision had already been taken to buy the remaining 2 seasons of Gomez's contract out.  Considering that the NHL's buyout period doesn't open until June 15 or 48 hours after the conclusion of the Stanley Cup finals should they run longer, there would be no point in making that kind of a decision in early May.  Besides, a buyout is only one of a few possible options the Canadiens have, so today we look at the scenarios and assess the best case.


Buy Him Out
While the first rumour is almost certainly a garbage source trying to pre-empt actual news just to claim they were first (aka Anonymous Hockey Blogging 101), it isn't impossible that the organization decides on this route come mid-June.  A buyout for a player in Gomez's category is set at 2/3 of the remaining dollars on his deal, split over double the remaining contract length.  Thanks to the calculator from CapGeek.com, we'd get this as the math for a buyout this summer:

So Geoff Molson would save a few bucks not having to pay Scottie, but the problem with this option is the last column, "Buyout Cap Hit."  Buy buying out his contract, the Canadiens would be handicapping themselves by this amount for each of the next four years, reducing the amount they'd be allowed to spend on their team, and putting the team at a disadvantage compared to other cap-spending clubs.  For a team with the financial resources to spend to the cap and beyond, this sort of management would be an injustice to fans, limiting the club's ability to ice the best roster possible.  Besides, Georges Laraque's buyout just finally came off the team's cap at the conclusion of this season, though it was a penalty of only $500,000 this year.

Fortunately, Geoff Molson alluded to the fact that he was open to alternatives other than the buyout, indicated that his team's budget wouldn't be limited (within reason of course) when it came to building a winning team.  So it seems unlikely he will force Bergevin's hand to go this route.  So aside from saving a few bucks, why would the team do it?  Well it's the most beneficial option for Gomez himself, collecting a payout and allowing him to shop his services to other clubs where he may be more welcome.  But Montreal owes Gomez nothing; the team isn't even the one who signed him to the deal in the first place.  They've paid him considerable money only to underperform, so why do him a favour?

That said, the fact that a new Collective Bargaining Agreement must be negotiated before we can play another season of NHL hockey complicates the situation a bit.  We don't know how a new CBA would change the options available to the team.  Will there be a clause that prevents clubs from hiding veteran salaries in the AHL?  Will the structure of buyouts change?  If so, this option might become more attractive.  Alternatively, will the new CBA provide a cap hit-free "amnesty" buyout mechanism for one short period of time?  If so, a buyout of that variety likely becomes the top possibility.



Let Him Play
Since buying him out under current rules makes little sense, imposing a four-year penalty on the team, another line of thinking is to simply let him play, at least for one more season.  There is the slim chance that he finds chemistry with someone else on the roster and shows a semblance of productivity, and either way, his deal becomes that much more manageable with another season ticked off, whether it's by finding a trade partner ("reasonable" salary due for a non-cap team) or buying it out at a smaller penalty.  For reference, the buyout one year from now would look just like the following, again thanks to CapGeek:

The problems with this option are many as well, however.  First, there is the likely scenario that Gomez doesn't perform much better than either of the past two seasons, in which case the team is simply better off without him.  The club is far better off with David Desharnais, Tomas Plekanec, and Lars Eller down the middle, and Gomez isn't the kind of player you would want on a fourth line.  Even moving him to the wing would not be ideal, as developing Louis Leblanc or re-signing Travis Moen fill greater needs in both the short- and long-term.  Essentially, this team wouldn't want Gomez on the roster for ANY dollar amount.  Then there is the off-ice distraction and constant media scrutiny/questioning that will accompany an unproductive Gomez on the squad.  Plus the immediate heat/pressure on Bergevin for not addressing $7.357 M in wasted cap space.  Thus, for all of these reasons, it seems very safe to conclude that we've seen Scott Gomez play his final game in a Canadiens jersey, and that "letting him play" isn't a good option.



Trade Him
This option, also known as the "easier said than done," has been a hope of Canadiens' fans for most of the past two years.  Find a team willing to take on Gomez's contract for some reason or another.  Any possible trade would fall under one of two possible circumstances, if not both.  First is the Canadiens sacrificing a significant future asset, such as a top prospect or high draft pick.  The second would be the team taking back a similar bad contract (or multiple smaller bad contracts), with both teams hoping that a change of scenery is all their disappointing players needed to kick it up a notch.  For example, it's pretty clear the Carolina Hurricanes are fed up with Tomas Kaberle and don't want to pay him $4.25M for each of the next two seasons, so maybe something could be done there.  Wait, what's that?  The Habs already took Kaberle off the 'Canes hands?  Without making them take anything long-term back?  My bad, I thought that was a delusional nightmare.

But seriously, who are some players teams out there might want to get rid of for Gomez?  There's Shawn Horcoff in Edmonton, whose cap hit is about $1.8M less than Gomez's annually and who scored just 13 goals and 34 points in 81 games this season.  Reason for Montreal to do it? Horcoff brings size at 6'1", 202 lbs.  Reason for Edmonton to do it?  Horcoff has three seasons remaining versus Gomez's two.  Jay Bouwmeester hasn't panned out since joining the Calgary Flames from the Florida Panthers, with 29 points and a -21 rating in 81 games this season.  Joining a new team might help his career, and Montreal could use a top pairing defender, so even though his cap hit is only $700,000 less than Gomez's, it might kill two birds with one stone.  Like with Horcoff, the reasoning for Calgary would be that Bouwmeester has three years left vs. two for Gomez.




Waive Him
Saving likely the best for last, the Canadiens could waive Scott Gomez in the Fall.  There are two possible paths in this case; one would be to take a decision immediately, and then exceed the cap by up to Gomez's cap hit this summer, in which case it's likely he would not even attend the team's training camp.  The other is to bring him to camp and see how he performs.  Keep him around if the math works out (i.e. the Habs weren't able to add any other contributing big dollar players) and he earns his spot; waive him by camp's end if there is no fit.

Placing Gomez on waivers means offering him and his contract to any team "for free."  No team will take him (though if one would, it would mean the Canadiens be off the hook for the remainder of his deal in entirety), and then the Habs would be free to assign him to another league, ridding them of his cap hit.  The most common route would be to send him to the Hamilton Bulldogs of the AHL, where he might help young players adapt to the pro ranks and fill a scoring need the 'Dogs are likely to have.  It is likely the team first gives him an option to explore possibilities of playing in Europe, where they could (at least under current CBA terms) loan him to a club that would take him and again be off the hook (cap hit wise) for all of his remaining dollars.  The Canadiens are a highly profitable organization, and can afford to pay Gomez $10M over the next two seasons to play for other clubs, saving the $14.7M in cap space.  That makes waiving him the best possible plan, which Habs fan should hope Bergevin opts for.

A Kink in the Plan

Whatever your thoughts of Pierre Gauthier's moves (or lack thereof) on deadline day, the always tight-lipped Habs general manager gave fans a little glimpse of his plan for the team yesterday. Whether he'll be the one ultimately executing the next phases of it or not, it is clear that he has goals to increase the overall size of the team to compensate for its smaller players, and that inconsistent play like that of Mike Cammalleri and Andrei Kostitsyn simply won't cut it.

These two principles sounds great in theory. They sound like parts of a recipe for turning your Montreal Canadiens into contenders once again. But while last night's Habs loss to the Lightning, combined with a Leafs loss, Caps and Canes wins, and a point for the Islanders fit absolutely perfectly into my personal Tanking desires, there appear to be a few holes or kinks in the team's current plan to turn their fortunes around.

A top 3 pick in this June's NHL Entry Draft will be a nice reward for surviving a putrid season of horrendous underachievement. But following moves this season that rid the team of the disappointing Cammalleri and Kostitsyn, even after adding a potential franchise forward through the draft, there remain problems that won't be easy to solve in the short term. While their play wasn't up to par, both Cammalleri and Kostitsyn were supposed to have important roles on the team; one as a premiere goal-scoring top 6 winger, and the other as a skilled and tough secondary scorer capable of potting 20+. While I appreciate what Rene Bourque can bring to the table, he certainly doesn't replace Cammalleri's contribution, and I'm doubting at this point that he can replace Kostitsyn's goals either.

So let's take a look at where the Canadiens stand right now. I'll even go ahead and assume the team manages to retain Travis Moen's services before he hits the open market on July 1st, and take the optimistic liberty of assuming the Habs will be able to perform some type of amnesty buyout to rid themselves of Scott Gomez's contract with the new CBA.

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS

Rene Bourque ($3.333m) / Tomas Plekanec ($5.000m) / Brian Gionta ($5.000m)

Max Pacioretty ($1.625m) / David Desharnais ($0.850m) / Erik Cole ($4.500m)

Travis Moen ($1.850m) / Lars Eller ($1.300m) / Louis Leblanc ($1.170m)

Mike Blunden ($0.615m) / Ryan White ($0.625m) / Blake Geoffrion ($0.800m)

Andreas Engqvist ($0.700m)

DEFENSEMEN

Andrei Markov ($5.750m) / Josh Gorges ($3.900m)

Alexei Emelin ($2.500m) / P.K. Subban ($3.000m)

Tomas Kaberle ($4.250m) / Raphael Diaz ($2.000m)

Yannick Weber ($0.850m)

GOALTENDERS

Carey Price ($6.500m) / Peter Budaj ($1.150m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)

(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)

SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $57,268,333; BONUSES: $300,000

CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $7,031,667

As is generally the case with a team currently sitting in last place in their conference, there are many, many problems here we can go over. I've given much attention to the need for a big, star, top 6 center, and that remains a hole on the roster. I'd say that finding such a player remains a priority if only because those types are difficult to add since they rarely become available.

But there's more. The third and fourth lines are very weak, due in part to Lars Eller's stunted offensive development and general inexperience of the group. I would love to see a team that could roll three offensive lines, and then feature Travis Moen and Ryan White flanking a big and tough center on the fourth unit, but the team seems far from achieving anything of the sort with bigger fish to fry first.

One of these big fish is the top 6 forward group. The Canadiens had seemingly gotten to a point where they no longer needed to rely on Andrei Kostitsyn for top 6 offense due to their forward depth. Having to insert a guy like Rene Bourque into the top 6, then, is a step backwards. Will Brian Gionta get back to his near-30 goal production, or will he play like he did prior to his injuries this season? Can pint-sized David Desharnais repeat this year's production over the long haul? Will he always need twin towers on either side of him in the team's top forwards, Max Pacioretty and Erik Cole? If so, that certainly handicaps line juggling flexibility. And what of Tomas Plekanec - is this poor season just an outlier? Pacioretty and Cole are pieces for a winning team, and Plekanec can be a solid 2nd line center on a championship team, but that still leaves three slots needing some kind of possible upgrade or change.

In short, to fix the forward group quickly, you would need to add 1-2 top 6 wingers, and ideally upgrade the center position. That's a tall order to fill in one summer, especially with a huge lack of talent available on the free agent market. Some of the few names to consider include Zach Parise, Jiri Hudler, and Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau, but there isn't much else, and even those 3 are each 6'0" or shorter. Plus with the shallow market, each of these guys is sure to get an overpayment as a UFA. We can conclude, then, that it is going to take some awfully creative work for Gauthier or whoever is GM to "fix" the team's forward group prior to the 2012-13 season, even if one problem could be solved via the draft (more on that tomorrow).

And then there's the defense, perhaps the team's biggest Achilles heel this season. If we assume that Andrei Markov will be back and will play like a top pairing defender, then that obviously helps the situation, giving the team two competent pairings. But there is still a need to add a top 4 guy on defense, and ideally one who could pick up the slack if Markov were to get hurt again (think Roman Hamrlik of a few seasons ago). A problem is that much of this "new guy"'s future cap hit is presently being made by Tomas Kaberle, a player not trustworthy enough to take on the role. The hope would be that with Markov and P.K. Subban on the top PP unit next season, the need for Kaberle would disappear and the team would find a way to move him. Taking a run at possible UFA Ryan Suter this summer would cure much of what ails the team's back end, but there are lesser money options who could also be signed to help the situation, such as Dennis Wideman, Brad Stuart, or Bryan Allen. A key will be that if Suter isn't the guy (meaning the player signed isn't part of a very long-term plan), then the Habs should be looking to get someone on a short-term deal. There are an incredible amount of defensive prospects who should be ready to make the leap in the next 1-3 years, so the team will eventually need to find room (though there is no need to rush anyone).

So what does this all mean? I'm not suggesting that you start licking your chops at the prospect of taking Nathan MacKinnon first overall in 2013, but there is much work to do for whoever will be managing the team into the summer and next season. Some unpopular decisions will have to be made; for one I could foresee the trading of Lars Eller before he reaches his full potential for a player to fill a top 6 wing slot. But once the team properly identifies a core and its needs around it, we should start to see some real progress.

Habs Trade Talk - Deadline Dos and Don'ts

There's a big week in store for your Montreal Canadiens. And it has absolutely nothing to do with 3 winnable games against the Dallas Stars, Washington Capitals, and Florida Panthers.

Pierre Gauthier and his staff have until 3 PM EST next Monday (February 27th) to complete their final deals until after a team raises the Stanley Cup this June. For the first time in quite a while, the Canadiens appear to find themselves out of the running at the deadline, which should make them one of the league's few pure sellers. In economic terms, being one of the few is always a benefit, since by laws of supply-and-demand, the relative value of your assets increases, which means Gauthier is in a pretty powerful position. He has NHL-able talent to provide to the highest bidders.

Gauthier opened for business early in dealing Hal Gill to the Nashville Predators last week in a trade where all seem to agree he got as much as he could hope for in return for the 36-year old pending UFA. Given the number of dockets he has to manage this week, getting one off the table early is not a bad idea, particularly when it's unlikely the price for Gill would have gone up any higher a week later. If anything, by then, others teams with a need for a specialty player like him might have found their answers elsewhere.

But Gauthier still has many long nights ahead, not that he looks like he ever sleeps (or eats for that matter) anyway. The fact that the Canadiens are out of the playoff race likely means the team's future assets are safe, but that doesn't mean there are no places that Gauthier could still trip up. Here we look at some Dos and Don'ts for the man running the good ship Hab over the next 6 days.

Things To Do

1) Talk to the agents for pending unrestricted free agents Andrei Kostitsyn and Travis Moen. If Kostitsyn can be extended at $3.5M or less, and Moen at his current salary, get it done. I understand those who get very frustrated with Kostitsyn's inconsistencies, but the fact is the team won't be able to replace him with a big 20+ goal scorer who can play with physicality for any less money than he makes. If next season's third line looks something like Rene Bourque - Lars Eller - Andrei Kostitsyn, the team should be in good shape.

As for Moen, the fact that he is currently injured, whether or not it had to do with him being rushed back into the lineup inexplicably, means the team may not be able to trade him even if they wanted to. It's still possible that he'll be in the line-up Sunday vs. the Florida Panthers which would put his name back on the market, but he isn't yet skating and we've had no real updates on his health. Moen is a great guy to have on a fourth line alongside a Ryan White. Add a young player like Louis Leblanc or Blake Geoffrion, and the team's bottom 6 looks pretty sound.

The most important "do," is that if either of these guys isn't signed this week, they must be dealt elsewhere. Their value in Montreal for another 20 games is very minimal. The return the may bring in, perhaps a 2nd round pick each, will be of much greater help to the club in the big picture.

2) Try to offload some contracts. Two players in particular, to me, don't fit into this team's long-term structure. The obvious one is Scott Gomez, though moving him will be easier said than done. The team is likely going to have to wait till the summer to deal with his problem contract, whether through a possible new CBA-permitted no-cap-hit buyout, or by trading him for another poor contract given his actual dollar amount owed drops for the next two seasons.

The other one is Tomas Kaberle. Kaberle defenders will point to his 17 points in 31 games with the Habs as strong production, and they're not wrong. That pace would mean a 45-point 82-game season, which are good numbers for a blueliner. But calling Kaberle a blueliner might be a bit of a stretch; he is the furthest thing from dependable in his own end and needs to play sheltered minutes with a strong defensive partner. Seeing him on the ice beside Chris Campoli has created enough nightmares for Hab fans already. If the team was within earshot of a playoff spot, I would say Kaberle has his place here until season's end due to Andrei Markov's uncertain status between now and April. But the Russian is working hard to get back into shape, and at this point there is little reason to doubt his presence in the team's opening night line-up next October. Since our focus should be building for next season, with Markov and the likes of P.K. Subban, Raphael Diaz, and Yannick Weber in Montreal, Kaberle is redundant and should be replaced with a more complete player. His production during his time with the Canadiens might actually make up a moveable asset, even though the return will be limited (and likely less than the Habs would have gotten for selling a Jaroslav Spacek rental). That's the reason to trade him now instead of waiting to see how Markov progresses; demand for Kaberle and his contract won't always be there.

3) Trade the other UFAs. If moving Kaberle and/or Gomez may be difficult, moving Chris Campoli should be easier. He won't return much more than a late round draft pick, but depth defensemen rentals are always in demand come deadline. Another pending UFA, Mathieu Darche, may have generated some interest with his resurgent play as well, and though he would like to stay in Montreal, if anyone offers any kind of pick or prospect for his services, Gauthier would be silly to ignore it.

4) Test market interest in still-useful players. Yannick Weber jumps to mind as a player being wasted in his present role in Montreal, but who other teams may see potential in. Weber needs to either be developed properly as an offensive defenseman or sent to an organization that will give him that chance before he is completely depleted as an asset. If Petteri Nokelainen returns to the line-up this week - a possibility given he is skating again - the Canadiens should at the least be able to recoup the 7th round pick spent to acquire him, if not improve upon it from a team that needs face-off help going into the playoffs. Aaron Palushaj doesn't look to have much of a future in Montreal, especially with the addition of Blake Geoffrion and the graduation of Brendan Gallagher and Michael Bournival to Hamilton next season. Perhaps there is a club that would swap a younger prospect or draft pick for him as a more NHL-ready player.

The more controversial one, which I've mentioned before, is the idea of floating either Tomas Plekanec or David Desharnais. Trading either before having a replacement plan in place would be a HUGE risk, but it never hurts to see if there might be a can't-refuse offer out there. In case you missed my previous discussion about moving one of them, the idea is that the Canadiens should add a BIG top 6 center to improve their match-ups against bigger forward lines and bigger shutdown D pairings. As I'd like Lars Eller to remain the third line center, bringing in a large pivot would mean moving either Pleks or DD. The harder part will be finding the right player to replace one of them; say a Mikhail Grigorenko or Ryan Getzlaf.

5) Don't ignore any sweepstakes for contracted established players. Just because the Canadiens are a "seller," doesn't mean they should be out of the running if any signed veterans who could help the team become available. Marquee players don't become available every day. If a player is on the market, Gauthier shouldn't close any doors. Especially if he's already sold some players off by then, he may have considerable future assets to work with. The biggest name known to be at least "somewhat" available right now is Columbus's Rick Nash. His contract may not be the most attractive, but the package he brings to the table is one that would help the Canadiens in a big way. The more pressing need might be for a marquee center with size, but adding Nash to a team with Max Pacioretty and Erik Cole would help to make the Habs a tough team to defend against. Of course, Nash may be a moot point, as there are no confirmed reports that he would even consider waiving his no-movement clause to come to Montreal even if a deal were worked out.

Things To Avoid

1) Trading significant future assets. That means no 2012 draft picks (this year's first has to be COMPLETELY off limits), Brendan Gallagher, Michael Bournival, Jarred Tinordi (who celebrated his 20th birthday yesterday), Nathan Beaulieu, or Danny Kristo. Heck, I'd even add Morgan Ellis, Darren Dietz, and Greg Pateryn to this group. The exception is in the case of #5 of the things to do, of course, since to bring in a premiere player, a prospect or two may have to be sacrificed. But in general, these names should be considered off-limits during a poor season.

2) Dealing recklessly with Columbus. Yes, Rick Nash *could* be a nice addition. But he also comes with a cap hit of $7.8M per season until 2018 which is a big chunk of change, even for a 60-point player. I would still take Nash, but wouldn't be willing to sacrifice anything and everything to acquire him. If that means the Habs are outbid for his services, so be it.

It's not just Nash who is allegedly available from the Blue Jackets though. They may also seek to part with Jeff Carter after acquiring him last June. Carter has appeared unhappy to play in Columbus since the day he was traded, the issue has gotten worse as a nagging foot injury has limited him to just 38 games. If you had asked me prior to this season if I'd have interest in Carter, I'd have said absolutely. A 6'3" goal-scoring center seemed to be just what the doctor ordered. But now consider his injuries, combined with his scoring just 22 points in those 38 games in his first season outside of Philadelphia, and - most importantly - the fact that his $5.3M cap hit extends until 2022 (when he'll be 37). Yes, Carter is a much better player than Scott Gomez, but his contract is also much longer and could handicap the team in a similar way. Thus, I would stay far away from any trade talks involving him.

Another Jacket with an unfavourable contract and likely on the market is Derick Brassard. Again, a 6'1" offensive center would appear to fit the bill nicely, but after setting career highs with 17 goals and 47 points as a 23-year old last season, his play has gone way south this year, undoubtedly making the Jackets regret his $3.2M annually deal that ends in 2014. Brassard has just 24 points in 51 games and was even a healthy scratch at times. The obvious connection to Montreal is a language one, with Brassard hailing from Hull, QC. But unless the Jackets are going to return the favour and take a contract like Gomez or Kaberle's from the Canadiens in the deal, I would be very hesitant to bring in Brassard.

3) Trading core pieces to address needs. If Gauthier does find an available player that fits into the team's plan, he must avoid the trap of addressing a need while creating another. The following roster players are my untouchable list which should not be included in any transaction: Carey Price, P.K. Subban, Alexei Emelin, Lars Eller, Josh Gorges, Max Pacioretty, and Erik Cole. This is my core, while there is flexibility for the remainder.

4) This last one is not for Gauthier, but for Habs fans. Avoid following made-up internet rumour mongers. That means Eklund, Incarcerated Bob, Hockeyy Insiderr, The Creasy, El Cloun (and his Vestiaire gang)... and Bruce Garrioch... If you follow them for strictly entertainment purposes to read whatever nonsense proposals they put out there, then fine. I follow some of them for that purpose as well. But please PLEASE don't take any of their alleged "rumours" too seriously. Most of it is either made up for some, or simply re-posting whatever any random anonymous source "leaks" to them for others.

If Gauthier can abide by all of this, it should be a relatively successful week. One "do" for Hab fans: Hang in there, and stay tuned to http://www.yourcanadiens.info/ and/or our Twitter account @DailyCanadiens for all the latest insights and analysis as the transactions unfold. I'll be in Madrid over the weekend, so posts are more likely to be after-the-fact analysis depending on timing, but I will be stationed in my European workspace Monday ready to bring you all the news as-it-happens.

Habs Trade Talk - Rumours and Speculation

With the 2011-12 NHL Trade Deadline just over a month away (February 27th), believe it or not, the crazy volume of rumours surrounding your Montreal Canadiens is sure to continue to pick up steam. Barring a ridiculous win streak between now and then, for the first time in years, the Habs are likely to approach the final day of midseason moves as a clear seller.

Pierre Gauthier seems to have finally come to the conclusion that his job must be to make the Canadiens bigger and tougher to play against. This should give us an idea of the type of player he will be looking to acquire, with the Cammalleri for Bourque swap being a prime example of the type of move we might expect. As a seller, it is also likely that any of the team's pending UFA that the club doesn't anticipate re-signing are shipped out for picks and prospects.

Gauthier has provoked rumours of both kinds of trades recently, spending considerable time in California attending Los Angeles Kings and Anaheim Ducks games.

The Ducks have essentially committed to building for next season at this point, announcing that virtually their entire roster was available for the right price (except Teemu Selanne and Saku Koivu). At first that may seem like a poor fit with the Canadiens who are in a similar position, but Anaheim has a number of players who could interest the Habs as long-term solutions if the Disney descendants opt for a bigger-scale rebuild. The most obvious fit would be Ryan Getzlaf, a big, tough, superstar centre that Habs fans have been dreaming of for years. The problem is that it will likely take a big overpayment to get Getzlaf out of Anaheim (as in he's "available," but not THAT available), and he can become a UFA in the summer of 2013. One year of Getzlaf isn't worth giving up all kinds of young assets, so a deal for him would only make sense if there was some certainty he would sign an extension. Similarly, if last season's Hart Trophy winner, big goal-scoring winger Corey Perry, were on the market (like Getzlaf, he probably isn't readily being offered), Gauthier would have to make an inquiry. But he has the same weakness as Getzlaf, also slated for unrestricted free agency in 2013. The better target might be Bobby Ryan, who is signed till 2015 (when he'll be a UFA) at a cap hit of $5.1M. The 6'2", 218 lbs, 24-year old winger has topped 30 goals each of the past 3 seasons but has seen his production dip this year, leading to his name popping up in rumours with various teams throughout the season. Certainly, if Gauthier could add a player like Ryan, combined with Max Pacioretty, Erik Cole, and Rene Bourque as top 9 wingers, the club would take a huge step in shedding the "small and soft" label.

The Kings, meanwhile, have a talented roster at all positions and, despite early struggles, will be looking to make a long playoff run. In this case, they might be a good fit for rental players like Hal Gill or Andrei Kostitsyn (if the Canadiens decide to move him). Gauthier attending games may indicate he is looking at a roster player rather than just picks or junior prospects, so names that immediately jump out are Vyacheslav Voinov, Kyle Clifford, Andrei Loktionov, and Alec Martinez. Voinov won't come cheap; the 22 year old is in his NHL rookie season after three full years in the American League. The 5'11" Russian rearguard is adept at both ends of the ice, but particularly excels offensively, and given that he's a righty, could make an excellent partner for Alexei Emelin in Montreal. Clifford, 21, was L.A.'s 2nd round pick in 2009. The 6'1" left winger surprisingly made the jump straight from the OHL to the NHL last year and especially impressed in the post-season, scoring 3 goals and 5 points in 6 games. Clifford is seen as a third-fourth line winger, using his size effectively and being an effective combatant (seen in his 141 PIMs last year). Many saw Loktionov as a candidate for the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year this season, but he hasn't quite lived up to the hype just yet. At 5'10", 180 lbs, he doesn't address Montreal's need for size, but if he develops well, he has gamebreaker potential. He has consistently been a near point-per-game AHL player, and scored his first 7 NHL points in 19 games last season, but has managed only 4 assists in 28 games with the Kings this year. Lastly, Martinez is a defenseman in the mold of a Raphael Diaz, with his advantage being a 6'1", 208 lbs frame. It is unlikely Gauthier targets him unless Diaz and/or Yannick Weber are moved elsewhere, but it could be a good opportunity to "buy low" since Martinez has scored just 2 points (both goals) in 23 games this season.

Of course, it is just as possible that no trade happens with either Los Angeles or Anaheim. Gauthier being in the area would seem to indicate that talks are underway, but it is certainly conceivable that nothing gets done. Tomorrow, I'll look at the reverse; going over which players are likely to be leaving Montreal between now and February 27th, and their possible destinations.