Restocking the Cupboard #3: Up, Up, or Away

[This is the third of a five-part series, going live every Wednesday on http://www.YourCanadiens.Info/, previewing possible Hab selections for the 2012 Entry Draft.  See Part 1, about who the team might pick if they hold steady at #3, HERE, and Part 2, about the possibility of trading down, HERE]

Welcome to the final piece devoted specifically to Montreal's third overall selection at this year's NHL Entry Draft, now just over two weeks away.  We talked about who to take at pick #3, we looked at the possibility of trading down if the Habs don't like who is on the board there, so what's left?

From fans on Twitter and forums, to radio talk show hosts, to television personalities, much has been made about the possibility of Montreal trading up to the first overall selection to draft Nail Yakupov.  There are questions about Mikhail Grigorenko's compete level, Alex Galchenyuk's repaired knee, and Filip Forsberg's offensive output, so Yakupov by default may be the closest the draft has to a "sure thing" offensively.  If Montreal doesn't walk away from a draft where they hold a third overall selection with an impact player, fans will be quick to turn on the new front office regime, so perhaps the safest route for Marc Bergevin, Trevor Timmins, and company would be to pony up another asset or two to be able to take the consensus best player available.

What would it cost to get Edmonton to swap down to third overall, where they will still be able to take the guy widely believed to be their man in defenseman Ryan Murray?  The most commonly discussed scenario would see Montreal giving up picks 3 and 33 for the first overall pick, which is considerable when you look at who may still be on the board at 33 for the Canadiens (coincidentally, we will look at that right here in Restocking the Cupboard #4 next week).  Personally, I'd be ok with making that sacrifice to add the kind of superstar we haven't seen in Montreal in ages.  But before we dig a little deeper into this, let's look at Yakupov's game.

Tantalizing skill and plays with an edge, what's not to like?  Well, at 5'11" and 190 lbs, though not Brendan Gallagher-sized, he doesn't bring the kind of frame that many would like to see Montreal adding.  He's a winger, and likely ready to step into the big league right away, so he could fill an immediate need beside Tomas Plekanec, but doesn't address the problem this team has had for years in the need for a big offensive center, something far more difficult to address via free agency or trade than a scoring wing.

Yakupov is a strong, agile skater, able to burn defenders with shifty moves.  He has a quick release which makes him a threat on every rush and shows the ability to create time and space for himself despite his small stature.  He's basically the complete, electrifying package offensively.  Some have concerns about his play in his own end, but those that doubt Yakupov point to incongruities between his size and style, wondering if his physical play will be successful against bigger and older opposition at the pro rank, and concern that it may lead to an injury-plagued career.  Still, no one doubts he is the most talented player available on draft day.

Some have suggested that picks 3 and 33 are too much to give up for Yakupov.  That the Canadiens should offer picks 3 and 51, or 3 and a defenseman like Yannick Weber, Raphael Diaz, or even a Brendon Nash.  I just don't see that as being enough for Edmonton because, while they would still get their man at 3, the Columbus Blue Jackets won't sit idly by and let another club snatch Yakupov from under their noses (ignore what those who suggest they won't take him because he's Russian say).  That means that even if swapping picks with Montreal is no skin off Edmonton's back, Columbus will bid the price of landing Yakupov up, so frankly, I don't even know if picks 3 and 33 will be sufficient to get it done.

Now where do I stand on the possibilities?  If Montreal is planning on taking Alex Galchenyuk (my preference, who by the way, led all prospects in last week's NHL Combine Anaerobic Test, a gauge for the most explosive skating) third overall, then I'd probably rather hold on to picks 3 and 33.  If Yakupov can be had for pick 3 and a toss-in like one of the defensemen I mention above - a highly unlikely scenario - then I'd be in favour of the move, as the team will still add two other solid prospects in the second round.  Even despite his size, though, at this point, I would far and away rather the team give up what it costs to nab Yakupov than use the top pick on either Forsberg or Grigorenko.

There is another topic worth mentioning, which is the idea of using the third overall selection as a trade chip to land an established or previously-drafted player.  As opposed to trading up or down, the Canadiens would altogether forego a first round selection to bring in someone they like better than the prospects available.  The most commonly mentioned name when this is discussed is that of Jonathan Huberdeau, the Saint John Sea Dogs star who was taken one year ago, also third overall, by the Florida Panthers.  Huberdeau, who could also fill the "need" for more French-speaking, home-grown talent with the Canadiens, was limited to just 37 games this season, but had a near 2.0 points-per-game average, with 72 on the year.  He brings decent size at 6'1", 171 lbs, has a good friendship with Canadiens' prospect Nathan Beaulieu, and unlike the players to be drafted in a few weeks, can play in the AHL if he isn't deemed NHL-ready in the Fall, though most believe he will be.

The problem here?  There is no reason to suggest that the Panthers would consider moving Huberdeau, who they inked to an entry-level deal last Fall, and even if they would, it is doubtful that any of the players available third overall this year would be sufficient bait to have them bite.  After making the playoffs this season, Florida will be looking to add to its roster, which a guy like Huberdeau can do, rather than delaying by taking on a less-ready youngster.  If you want Huberdeau, you're talking a name like P.K. Subban going back the other way.  Maybe Florida would consider an offer like the third overall pick AND a Lars Eller.  In my books, it just doesn't add up.

Other players talked about as potential returns for the third selection include Rick Nash, Ryan Getzlaf, and Jarome Iginla.  In the first two cases, it would take considerably more than the pick alone, which would be a huge gamble for Getzlaf who can become an unrestricted free agent just one year from now.  I'm not ready to sacrifice that much for a guy like Nash either, who while he could make a great addition, has production just a notch below the "superstar" type I'm hoping for.  I think any talk of Iginla is a non-starter for all, given his age and declining production.  A team very close to a championship might make such a move, but certainly not a team in Montreal's position.  In sum, I just don't see the Canadiens dealing this pick away as realistic.  They will select a top prospect in the first round.


We've now covered pretty much all possibilities for the third overall pick.  My preference remains either selecting Alex Galchenyuk, or trading up for Nail Yakupov, either of which would make me happy at night's end.  Next week, we turn our attention towards the other Montreal selections, offering suggestions and predictions for each, before our final installment - the week of the draft - will be a full 30-team Mock Draft of the first two rounds.

Restocking the Cupboard #2: Movin' on Down

[This is the second of a five-part series, going live every Wednesday on http://www.YourCanadiens.Info/, previewing possible Hab selections for the 2012 Entry Draft.  See Part 1, about who the team might pick if they hold steady at #3, HERE]

Last week, we discussed the four possible candidates for the Canadiens' first draft choice if they are to remain at 3rd overall come June 22nd.  But as I went over, none of them are without their issues, and even at that, whichever of the four that the Columbus Blue Jackets sees as the best for them won't be available by pick three, leaving the Habs to take the best of the rest.  This year's draft has more questions than answers.  So let's say that, for all the reasons specified, Trevor Timmins, Marc Bergevin, and co aren't convinced that the players who will be available at, say, pick 6-10, project with less certainty or less potential than those available at #3.  What happens then?

Yes, the team could still keep the pick, as at 3rd, they can go with "their guy" out of a greater number of available prospects.  But it's also possible that "their guy" isn't one of Mikhail Grigorenko, Filip Forsberg, Alex Galchenyuk, or Ryan Murray.  In this case, rather than just go off the board with a lower-ranked name, the team could trade down, swapping with a club that holds a pick later in the first round in order to collect other assets (like say an additional 2nd round choice).  While there are other options (trading up or trading the pick outright), today we'll look at where the team could trade down to, and who they might fancy at that slot.

The order of the first 28 picks of the draft have been locked in, and they are as follows:
1. Edmonton Oilers
2. Columbus Blue Jackets
3. Montreal Canadiens
4. New York Islanders
5. Toronto Maple Leafs
6. Anaheim Ducks
7. Minnesota Wild
8. Carolina Hurricanes
9. Winnipeg Jets
10. Tampa Bay Lightning
11. Washington Capitals (from Colorado Avalanche)
12. Buffalo Sabres
13. Dallas Stars
14. Calgary Flames
15. Ottawa Senators
16. Washington Capitals
17. San Jose Sharks
18. Chicago Blackhawks
19. Tampa Bay Lightning (from Detroit Red Wings)
20. Philadelphia Flyers
21. Buffalo Sabres (from Nashville Predators)
22. Pittsburgh Penguins
23. Florida Panthers
24. Boston Bruins
25. St. Louis Blues
26. Vancouver Canucks
27. Phoenix Coyotes
28. New York Rangers

Might the third overall choice be worth Tampa Bay's 10th and 19th?  Washington's 11th and 16th?  Buffalo's 12th and 21st?  Perhaps the Canadiens want to stay a little higher up than that, but could poach picks 6 and 36 from Anaheim or 8 and 38 from Carolina (Minnesota doesn't have its own 2nd round selection).  For this exercise, let's focus on the 6-12 range and some of the names that might interest the Habs.  The good news is, there is very likely to be a run on defensemen early on in the draft, since they make up a big part of the top rated prospect group.  So by trading down, the Canadiens should still be able to snag one of the top prospects at forward, an area where they have the far greater need.

If the team does opt for such a strategy, here's a look at five forwards and three d-men to consider with a later pick.


Radek Faksa - C - Kitchener Rangers, OHL
6'3", 202 lbs - Shoots L
Rankings: Central Scouting - 7th (North America); Future Considerations - 13th; The Hockey News - 11th

Faksa is a native of the Czech Republic who made the jump to the CHL this season after several years in Czech junior leagues.  Scoring 29 goals and 67 points in 62 games for Kitchener had him finish as runner-up to young phenom Aaron Ekblad for the Ontario League's Rookie of the Year.  In tournament play, Faksa scored 2 goals in 6 games for Team Czech Republic at this year's World Juniors (where he was the youngest player on his team) after a disappointing U18 a year ago had him pointless in 6 contests.  His production in these small-sample events dipped in the OHL playoffs as well, where he netted only 6 points in 13 games.  Those numbers may have been hurt by a head injury suffered in March, causing him to miss some playoff action, and potentially scaring a few teams that have or had interest in him who must now worry about concussions.

So what's to like?  If the Canadiens weren't drafting as high as they are, most fans would be clamouring to find a way to land Faksa.    A big and strong center, Faksa offers the kind of complete package scouts dream of: size, skill, good skating ability, and a willingness to backcheck hard.  He is built in the mold of a power forward and has success winning battles in the offensive zone, which is more his game rather than one of finesse.  His frame and reach make him difficult to contain for opposing defenders, which means as he fills out further he could become a dominating offensive presence.

Concerns about Faksa's play are relatively minor and can mostly be attributed to it being his first year in North America.  He started the season a little slow, normal for a player adjusting to a new country and league, but then picked it up, earning ice time and becoming one of Kitchener's top players.  However, later on in the year, whether it was a lack of endurance and conditioning in his own game or just struggling to deal with other teams keying on him more, he was less noticeable, which has kept him out of the top 10 in final rankings.

Definitely a top candidate for the Canadiens if they choose to move down, for the same reason the tools brought by Alex Galchenyuk and Mikhail Grigorenko make them likely picks for the team at #3.

Teuvo Teravainen - RW - Jokerit, Finland
5'11", 165 lbs - Shoots L
Rankings: Central Scouting - 2nd (Europe); Future Considerations - 8th; The Hockey News - 12th

The first thing you'll undoubtedly notice is the size issue; right away something that means Teravainen might not be an ideal choice for a team wanting to get bigger like Montreal.  But it's hard to ignore the elite level of skill and creativity Teravainen displays on ice, which makes him a dangerous threat who scored 11 goals and 18 points in 40 games in Finland's men's league this past season.  He was dominant against peers his own age, notching 12 goals and 20 points in just 11 junior league games, and adding 2 goals and 8 points in 6 games in this year's World U18.

His shiftiness with the puck is the skill that stands out the most, just as competent a scorer as he is a playmaker.  He isn't a dangler, but his vision and quick hands allow him to create room in the offensive zone.  He has quick feet, though isn't one to blow people away with his speed, which is a potential issue given that smaller players often need elite quickness to compensate for their lack of size.

This is basically what it comes down to with Teravainen: on the one hand, he has the ability to control a game, to patiently slow it down and create chances with the puck that always seems to find itself on his stick (all abilities scouts looking for in judging a player's upside), but on the other, adding strength to his frame is a real concern.  5'11" isn't "too small" for the NHL, but Teravainen is skinny, which makes battling along the boards and protecting the puck concerns for his future.  Ultimately scouts will have to determine if his huge offensive upside outweighs the concerns, and most seem to think it does, with McKeen's even ranking him in their final top five.  For these reasons, despite the team's need to get bigger, he becomes an option for the Canadiens whose biggest need is a top-flight superstar.

Brendan Gaunce - C - Belleville Bulls, OHL
6'2", 215 lbs - Shoots L
Rankings: Central Scouting - 13th (North America); Future Considerations - 18th; The Hockey News - 17th

Does Gaunce have enough upside to satisfy Hab fans in a year where the team starts off at third overall?  He did score 28 goals and 68 points in 68 games this season for Belleville, but how will that project in the long run?  These are the kind of questions scouts will have to consider if trading down for him is an option.

If Montreal were drafting 17th overall as they did a year ago, then Gaunce might be a perfect fit as a 6'2" center already possessing a thick enough frame to compete against men.  His big body lets him play a power and puck protection game, while also being an adept puck handler.  He possesses the leadership traits and intangibles that the Canadiens have historically loved to draft, and plays a good two-way game, reliable defensively, also a trademark of a Trevor Timmins pick.

While Gaunce sounds like an ideal center to build a team around, he isn't without fault.  Most notably, scouts are concerned about his skating, lacking both in top-flight speed and first-step quickness.  While he is a reasonable finisher, there are also concerns as to whether his offense will translate to the professional ranks.  Finally, while he is capable of being a physical, dominant player, there are times where the has lacked a bit of that intensity, so consistency is something he'll also need to work into his game.  This has polarized many scouts as to his future, some seeing him as a top 10 prospect from this draft class, filling out to be a top 6 power forward, while others see him as a later safe pick, projecting as a two-way third liner.  Based on this evaluation, it wouldn't be unfair to compare him to a Kyle Chipchura pre-draft, though Chipchura's development after being selected was largely derailed by injuries.  And just because Chipchura didn't pan out as Montreal had hoped, doesn't mean Gaunce will follow the same trajectory should he land with the Canadiens.

Zemgus Girgensons - C - Dubuque Fighting Saints, USHL
6'1.5", 200 lbs - Shoots L 
Rankings: Central Scouting - 18th (North America); Future Considerations - 19th; The Hockey News - 16th

There are a lot of similarities between Girgensons and Radek Faksa, also included on this list.  Future Considerations has Faksa 6 slots ahead of Girgensons, while McKeen's has Girgensons one spot ahead of Faksa.  Both are big European centers - Girgensons being Latvia - who came over to play hockey in North America prior to their draft year.  Girgensons has already been on this side of the ocean for three seasons, most recently playing the last two years with Dubuque of the USHL.  If you're hearing a lot about Dubuque lately, that is because there is a tie to recently hired Canadiens scout Bobby Kinsella, who served as Director of Scouting and Assistant Coach for the club for the past two years, meaning he has one of the better informed opinions of Girgensons of anyone out there.

Girgenson's 44 points in 43 games last season were a modest improvement from his 49 points in 51 contests the year prior, which has some scouts worried about his offensive upside.  He can play a physical power game, producing 2 goals at this year's World Juniors on a weak Latvian squad, and has the type of build that fast-tracks youngsters to the big league.  The question will be what role he can fill once he gets there.  While a natural center, many feel he lacks the skill set to project in that position long-term, with puck distribution not at the top of his list of skills, making some question his hockey sense.  His skating - while powerful and not a huge weakness - is also a bit of a concern, lacking a top gear.

Still, there is no doubting Girgensons's intensity and aggressiveness, which makes him a very safe prospect even if he ends up being limited to a third line role.  If Kinsella's recommendation comes in strong enough - and it likely will given that he served as Dubuque's captain this season - it is possible that the club works hard to nab Girgensons.  If it's not a trade down, maybe Girgensons's Latvian origin has him slip a little, and the club tries to trade up from pick 33 to select him late in the first round.

Sebastian Collberg - RW - Frolunda Jr. - Sweden
5'11", 175 lbs - Shoots R
Rankings: Central Scouting - 3rd (Europe); Future Considerations - 12th; The Hockey News - 14th

Like Teravainen, Collberg lacks the size Hab fans are dreaming of, but the winger packs a punch offensively.  Whereas Filip Forsberg was held to just a single assist in six World Junior Championship games this season, Collberg finished second on the squad with seven points, including four goals.  He was also dominant offensively in the World U18 tournament, where as one of Sweden's assistant captains, he scored 4 goals and 9 points in 6 games, but was also criticized for looking fatigued an umotivated at times after a long season.  Like Forsberg, Collberg spent much of the season playing against men in the Swedish Elite League, though he got very little ice time with Frolunda, held off the scoresheet in 41 games.  He spent 21 games with the team's junior club, registering 9 goals and 17 points in that span.

As a player, Collberg's quick and accurate release is probably his best attribute.  He's a great skater, and despite his size, doesn't shy away from traffic areas on the ice.  His defensive game is quite well-rounded with a solid work ethic making him a tough back checker, typical of many players coming out of Sweden and Finland the last several years.  Still, the lack of strength on his frame is concerning, limiting his effectiveness against bigger defenders, so it's something he'll need to work on if he is to produce at the North American professional level.  A final concern is his development if he remains in Sweden, as Frolunda can be tough on its younger players.  In addition to a lack of ice time, playing on a fourth unit, Collberg's game became one of puck retrieval, chip, and chase, limiting him from using his strengths in the attacking zone.

His style has drawn comparisons to the likes of Phil Kessel and Jeff Skinner, but if the Canadiens do decide that trading down for Collberg is what they're after, they might be wise to get him to join a CHL club for next year to continue his progression.  He may be on Trevor Timmins's radar, as when talking about top prospects for the upcoming draft, rather than single out Forsberg, Timmins alluded to, "the Swedes."

Mathew Dumba - D - Red Deer Rebels, WHL
5'11.5", 180 lbs - Shoots R
Rankings: Central Scouting - 11th (North America); Future Considerations - 10th; The Hockey News - 5th

The first of three blueliners on the list, Dumba is the smallest, which has undoubtedly hurt his pre-draft rankings.  However, he plays a lot bigger than the size he's listed at, which is both a compliment and a concern, causing some to fear for his longevity in the big league and his ability to handle his own in a men's league if his style doesn't translate against larger opponents.  His rankings are a little all over the place, with both McKeen's and The Hockey News having him as the #2 defenseman in the draft after Ryan Murray, while Future Considerations has four blueliners ahead of him.

So other than being a more physical player than he was built to be, what makes Dumba a top prospect?  He's got a well-rounded game, with vision that allows for great breakout passes, a heavy shot, and soft hands that help him make quick plays.  He possesses good leadership skills, rebounding after taking an early cut from Team Canada WJC camp very hard by captaining the country's World U18 team and producing a phenomenal 5 goals and 12 points in just 7 games to lead the club by a fair margin.  In Red Deer, he more than doubled his production from a year ago, scoring 57 points in 69 games to rank sixth among WHL rearguards.

Other than size, the only other real concern about Dumba is his consistency, as he can go through spells where he is less involved physically, and is caught watching the play, or being reactive rather than using the hockey intelligence he is blessed with.  But he is blessed with talent, and the rest (other than size) will mostly be worked out through coaching and maturity, so if Montreal wants to add a dynamic player - the kind who might have as good or better a career than anyone available at pick 3 - while picking up an additional selection, Dumba could be on their list.  He just might be my favourite d-man in the draft due to the exciting game he plays.  And as I've said before, I don't believe that the other top 10 blueliners are all that far behind Murray.

Griffin Reinhart - D - Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL
6'4", 205 lbs - Shoots L
Rankings: Central Scouting - 10th (North America); Future Considerations - 7th; The Hockey News - 8th

Reinhart is a consensus top 10 selection in the coming draft, blessed with the body that would make a guy like Dumba a contender for first overall this year.  Reinhart has hockey bloodlines - his father Paul is a former NHL d-man - which we know Trevor Timmins enjoys, and got added experience this year as his Edmonton Oil Kings won the WHL title and most recently competed in the Memorial Cup.

Reinhart may have the frame, but he doesn't play a physical, punishing game.  He is a two-way blueliner, less flashy than Dumba, having scored 12 goals and 36 points in 58 games this season, but makes up for what he lacks in toughness by playing a positionally sound coverage game in his own end.  He is strong, and even dropped the gloves on three occasions this season, but many would like to see him use his size to throw hits on a more regular basis rather than just relying on his long reach.  His skating is unique, often the case with young players who are adapting to their bodies, and while it shouldn't hold him back significantly, is an area he can strive to improve.

Perhaps the biggest positive with regards to Reinhart is that he improved significantly as the season went on. Players at this age are still developing as athletes, and it is a scout's job to project where they may be years in the future, thus to see a good learning curve is encouraging for what that future may hold.  As he gets increasingly comfortable in his role as a top pairing blueliner over time, we may see some of that toughness creep into his game with more consistency, which could make him an addition to a stacked Montreal back end some years from now.

Jacob Trouba - D - USNTDP, USHL
6'2", 195 lbs - Shoots R
Rankings: Central Scouting - 9th (North America); Future Considerations - 6th; The Hockey News - 9th

Future Considerations likes Trouba ahead of Reinhart, while both The Hockey News and McKeen's have him a little behind.  A little smaller than Reinhart, Trouba also plays an all-around two-way game.  However, where Reinhart can shy away from physical play and needs to work on his skating, both are core elements to Trouba's game.  Between his size, quickness, and toughness, he is difficult to beat in his own end, but he also possessed a hard point shot, which allowed him to score 18 points in 22 USHL games with the U18 team this season.  He was so good, in fact, that he made the American team for the World Juniors, contributing 2 assists in 6 games, and was later named an assistant captain for the World U18 squad, where he added a goal and 3 points in 6 more contests.

There is little at fault in Trouba's game, which the Canadiens might like when the players at the top of the draft all come with warning labels.  Critics sometimes worry about his puck-handling, which has many questioning whether his offensive skills can translate to the next level, but if he won't be a puck-rusher, his shot should mean it won't handicap him too badly.  He is a true competitor, but there are still some questions about consistency, though it is hard to gauge a player off such a small sample size with the US National Team Development Program.  He is expected to continue his development with either the University of Michigan or the Kitchener Rangers.

Now, if on draft day, prior to pick #3, we hear Gary Bettman utter those highly anticipated words, "We have a trade to announce," you have an idea of who it might be that the Canadiens are really looking to select.  Of this list, given the organization's needs, I'd be happy adding a Faksa or Girgensons.

However, truth be told, I'm not particularly in favour of the trade down option this year, even with a draft full of uncertainties and the need to bolster a thin prospect pool in Montreal.  It hopefully won't be often that the Canadiens get to speak so early on in an entry draft, and this gives them the opportunity to add a superstar-calibre player.  Sure, I'd be open to listening to offers for the pick, particularly if somehow Nail Yakupov and Alex Galchenyuk both go in the two spots before the Canadiens.  But in the end, I'd say draft your Galchenyuk or Mikhail Grigorenko and then hope for the best; all of the above players will make fine NHL'ers, but that's not the need.  Come June, a new star must be born to rise Hab fans out of their seats once again.

Next week, we'll look at the possibilities of trading up to nab Nail Yakupov with the first overall selection, or potentially trading the third overall pick away altogether.  The week following, we'll look at possible candidates for all of the rest of Montreal's picks in the draft.

9 Hab Draft Hits & 4 Hab Misses

With Habs GM Marc Beregevin in Toronto today to take in part of the NHL's Central Scouting Combine, where today NHL clubs get a chance to hold one-on-one interviews with some of next month's top prospects, it seems like a good day to talk about drafting.  Our series of articles, "Restocking the Cupboard," about who the team should take this year will resume tomorrow, but today, to paraphrase Pitbull, to understand the future, we gotta go back in time.

It's been well-documented that Montreal has a great overall drafting record - one of the best in the league - over the last 10 or so years.  While first rounds have been hit or miss, Trevor Timmins and co have an uncanny ability to pluck gems out of drafts' later rounds.  So today will look at the last 5 years and go over some hits or misses by the team which will show both how much of an impact every selection can have on an organization moving forward, and why we should have faith in the men in charge in Montreal.

But when I say the last 5 years... It's still far too early to judge the class of 2011.  It's even too early to judge the class of 2010, though Morgan Ellis and Brendan Gallagher are looking like more mid-round steals for the Canadiens.  And while for some teams it might be an ok time to look at 2009, there are still too many questions around the players Montreal took to properly assess it.  So our five year span will instead cover the drafts between 2004 and 2008.


HITS

9) Matt D'Agostini - Round 6, 190th Overall, 2005

D'Agostini got off to an explosive goal-scoring start in Montreal as a rookie, but failed to earn ice time during a sophomore slump.  Ultimately, this led to his being shipped off to St. Louis for Aaron Palushaj, and while D'Ags is far from a household name with an uncertain future, he already has a 20-goal and 40-point season under his belt.  Not bad for the 6th round.

Similar OHL players other teams took ahead of him:
Chris Lawrence, Tampa Bay Lightning, Round 3, 89th Overall - 0 NHL GP
Dan Collins, Florida Panthers, Round 3, 90th Overall - 0 NHL GP
Bobby Bolt, Anaheim Ducks, Round 5, 127th Overall - 0 NHL GP
Josh Beaulieu, Philadelphia Flyers, Round 5, 152nd Overall - 0 NHL GP

8) Alexei Emelin - Round 3, 84th Overall, 2004 

The hard-hitting Emelin finally made his much-anticipated NHL debut this season and was worth the wait.  He looks to be a fixture on Montreal's back end for a long time to come.

Similar European players other teams took ahead of him:
Johan Fransson, Dallas Stars, Round 2, 34th Overall - 0 NHL GP
Kirill Lyamin, Ottawa Senators, Round 2, 58th Overall - 0 NHL GP

7) Ryan McDonagh - Round 1, 12th Overall, 2007

As hard as it has been for Habs fans to watch, McDonagh has been a revelation for the New York Rangers this year, which is a credit to Trevor Timmins nonetheless.  He may end up having the best career of any defenseman taken in 2007, a standout defensively while amassing 41 points over his first 122 NHL games.

Defensemen other teams took ahead of him:
Thomas Hickey, Los Angeles, Round 1, 4th Overall - 0 NHL GP
Karl Alzner, Washington Capitals, Round 1, 5th Overall - 39 PTS, 215 NHL GP
Keaton Ellerby, Florida Panthers, Round 1, 10th Overall - 17 PTS, 116 NHL GP

6) Carey Price - Round 1, 5th Overall, 2005

It may seem weird to include a fifth overall selection on this list, but I qualify this as a hit because of the overwhelming disappointment among Hab fans that followed.  Most were clamouring for either Benoit Pouliot, taken one pick before Price, or Gilbert Brule, who Columbus took 6th.  Looking back at those three, we can say that Timmins was on the ball with this pivotal selection.  With the exception of Anze Kopitar and perhaps a healthy Marc Staal, no one taken after Price in that year's first round comes near his value today.

5) Max Pacioretty - Round 1, 22nd Overall, 2007

Another astute first rounder, there were those upset when Angelo Esposito was taken prior to Montreal returning to the podium for pick 22.  Esposito, we now know, has yet to play an NHL game, while Pacioretty just finished a 33-goal campaign.

Forwards other teams took ahead of him:
Zach Hamill, Boston Bruins, Round 1, 8th Overall - 4 PTS, 20 NHL GP
Colton Gillies, Minnesota Wild, Round 1, 16th Overall - 16 PTS, 127 NHL GP
Logan MacMillan, Anaheim Ducks, Round 1, 19th Overall - 0 NHL GP
Angelo Esposito, Pittsburgh Penguins, Round 1, 20th Overall - 0 NHL GP
Riley Nash, Edmonton Oilers, Round 1, 21st Overall - 1 PTS, 5 NHL GP

4) Sergei Kostitsyn - Round 7, 200th Overall, 2005

Things may not have worked out for the younger Kostitsyn brother in Montreal, but there's no doubt that plucking a top 6 forward in round 7 of a draft is a big steal.  Funny that he now plays in Nashville, since the Predators had perhaps a bigger steal that same round with Patric Hornqvist.

Similar European players other teams took ahead of him:
Philipp Gogulla, Buffalo Sabres, Round 2, 48th Overall - 0 NHL GP
Christofer Lofberg, Detroit Red Wings, Round 3, 80th Overall - 0 NHL GP
Fredrik Pettersson, Edmonton Oilers, Round 5, 157th Overall - 0 NHL GP
Lukas Vantuch, Boston Bruins, Round 6, 172nd Overall - 0 NHL GP
Johan Dahlberg, Toronto Maple Leafs, Round 6, 173rd Overall - 0 NHL GP

3) Mikhail Grabovski - Round 5, 150th Overall, 2004

Grabovski may not have been able to flourish in Montreal, but he at least returned the team a 2nd round pick (later traded for Robert Lang) and a current prospect in Greg Pateryn.  Pretty good value for a fifth rounder.  Only four players selected outside the first round have scored more than Grabovski's 201 points, achieved in 319 NHL games.

Similar European players other teams took ahead of him:
Lauri Tukonen, Los Angeles Kings, Round 1, 11th Overall - 0 PTS, 5 NHL GP
Lukas Kaspar, San Jose Sharks, Round 1, 22nd Overall - 4 PTS, 16 NHL GP
Johannes Salmonsson, Pittsburgh Penguins, Round 2, 31st Overall - 0 NHL GP
Roman Voloshenko, Minnesota Wild, Round 2, 42nd Overall - 0 NHL GP
Mikhail Yunkov, Washintgon Capitals, Round 2, 62nd Overall - 0 NHL GP

2) Mark Streit - Round 9, 262nd Overall, 2004

Some were unhappy when the Canadiens used a draft pick on a 27-year old, but the team snagged the rights to what would be a premiere NHL blueliner in the 9th round.  Only three players from the entire 2004 draft have scored more points than Streit thus far, being third round steal Johan Franzen, and the draft's top two selections in Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin.  Of course, being 27 when drafted, Streit started off at an advantage, but Montreal certainly made the most of a late-round selection here.

1) P.K. Subban - Round 2, 43rd Overall, 2007

Montreal's young dynamic blueliner is well on his way to a promising career as a 20+ minute tough offensive d-man.  The 2007 selection already has 160 regular season games under his belt, scoring 76 points, and adding 12 points in 21 playoff games.  Certainly there are quite a few teams regretting having passed on him.

Defensemen other teams took ahead of him:
Alex Plante, Edmonton Oilers, Round 1, 15th Overall - 2 PTS, 10 NHL GP
Nick Petrecki, San Jose Sharks, Round 1, 28th Overall - 0 NHL GP
Nick Ross, Phoenix Coyotes, Round 1, 30th Overall - 0 NHL GP
Taylor Ellington, Vancouver Canucks, Round 2, 33rd Overall - 0 NHL GP
Josh Godfrey, Washington Capitals, Round 2, 34th Overall - 0 NHL GP



MISSES


4) Jason Missiaen - Round 4, 116th Overall, 2008 

The goaltending pipeline in Montreal is quite barren, but the team has tried to restock it with a couple of picks.  Unfortunately, they haven't panned out, with the giant-sized Missiaen not earning a contract with the club.  Some netminders taken after him have fared much better.

Goaltenders other teams took after him:
Dustin Tokarski, Tampa Bay Lightning, Round 5, 122nd Overall - 7 NHL GP
Kevin Poulin, New York Islanders, Round 5, 126th Overall - 16 NHL GP
Anders Lindback, Nashville Predators, Round 7, 207th Overall - 38 NHL GP

3) Mathieu Carle - Round 2, 53rd Overall, 2006

Carle showed promise early on, but never reached his potential partly due to injuries, playing only 3 NHL games before being sent to the Anaheim Ducks last summer.  Unable to get playing time there, he recently signed a deal to pursue his career in Europe.

Defensemen other teams took after him:
Mike Weber, Buffalo Sabres, Round 2, 57th Overall - 25 PTS, 132 NHL GP
Jamie McBain, Carolina Hurricanes, Round 2, 63rd Overall - 67 PTS, 166 NHL GP
Theo Peckham, Edmonton Oilers, Round 3, 75th Overall - 17 PTS, 156 NHL GP
Andrew MacDonald, New York Islanders, Round 6, 160th Overall - 53 PTS, 184 NHL GP

2) Ben Maxwell - Round 2, 49th Overall, 2006

Maxwell had a good junior career, but could never transition his game beyond solid AHL production.  He does have 47 NHL games to his name, but as an offensive player, has scored only 8 points.  The thing that hurts most is the player, coming out of the same league, taken one spot after him.

Forwards other teams took after him:
Milan Lucic, Boston Bruins, Round 2, 50th Overall - 212 PTS, 359 NHL GP
Artem Anisimov, New York Rangers, Round 2, 54th Overall - 108 PTS, 244 NHL GP
Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins, Round 3, 71st Overall - 97 PTS, 173 NHL GP
Cal Clutterbuck, Minnesota Wild, Round 3, 72nd Overall - 100 PTS, 304 NHL GP

1) David Fischer - Round 1, 20th Overall, 2006

I'm sure you saw this one coming.  A first round flop who was left unsigned, the team opting for a compensatory pick instead.  Fischer currently plays in the ECHL, where his Florida Everblades just won the league championship, though Fischer had to absent himself late in the team's run to be with is ailing mother.  The young man's career is far from over at age 24, having scored 50 points in 65 ECHL games this year and another 12 in 13 playoff games.  He will most likely be looking for a full-time AHL contract next season as he continues to try to get on track.  This was a pretty weak draft overall in fairness, but there was much better talent still on the board in that first round.

Players other teams took after him:
Claude Giroux, Philadelphia Flyers, Round 1, 22nd Overall - 243 PTS, 285 NHL GP
Patrik Berglund, St. Louis Blues, Round 1, 25th Overall - 163 PTS, 310 NHL GP
Jamie McGinn, San Jose Sharks, Round 2, 36th Overall - 62 PTS, 221 NHL GP
Nikolai Kulemin, Toronto Maple Leafs, Round 2, 44th Overall - 152 PTS, 303 NHL GP


So what can we take out of all this?  On draft day, you win some and you lose some.  It is not an exact science, but we should on the whole be happy with the track record of Montreal's staff.  Things also look good for the future, with Bergevin stating his intention to beef up the scouting staff.  Let's hope 2012 looks a lot more like the 2007 or 2005 drafts for the Canadiens than it does the 2006.

Restocking the Cupboard #1: Holding Steady - Fantastic Four

Welcome to the first installment of Restocking the Cupboard, a five week mini-series going live every Wednesday leading up to the NHL Entry Draft taking place June 22-23.  With the graduations of the likes of Carey Price, Max Pacioretty, and P.K. Subban over the past couple of years, combined with the trading of multiple 2nd round selections, Montreal's prospect system has thinned out considerably.  Yes, there are some interesting names turning pro in the Fall, but the organization needs some padding, particularly at forward and between the pipes.

Fortunately, Montreal is in a good position to do a lot of restocking at this very draft, with the third overall pick and a bonus second rounder obtained from Nashville in the Hal Gill trade.  For the first 3 installments, we'll look specifically at that third overall first round selection and Montreal's options with it.  Today we'll go in-depth about the only four players the team should or could be realistically considering in that spot, while next week we'll discuss the possibility of trading down, and in 2 weeks we'll look at what it might take to move up and whether or not it would be worth it.

With that said, today we will take an in-depth look at the four players who could become Canadiens on the draft's Friday evening if the team holds steady at #3.  Here's my take on each of the players and the pros and cons of selecting them.


Mikhail Grigorenko - Center - Quebec Remparts, QMJHL
6'2", 200 lbs - Shoots L
Rankings: Central Scouting - 3rd (North America); Future Considerations - 4th; The Hockey News - 3rd;

A lot has been said about Grigorenko this season.  Entering the season, there was excitement that Grigorenko had chosen to spend the year in North America, debuting as a rookie for Patrick Roy's Quebec Remparts in the QMJHL.  Some had him as a possible contender for the top pick, looking to dislodge Nail Yakupov.  It's hard to call a season of 40 goals and 85 points in 59 games, and another 10 points in 11 playoff games, all the while earning awards as the league's Top Rookie and Top Professional Prospect, disappointing.  But rather than see his stock rise, the questions about him have multiplied.

Let's start with the good.  Grigorenko came to the Q as a winger, but under Roy's tutelage, made a successful transition to center early on this season, even improving his face-off skills over the course of the year.  His big frame will provide size down the middle to whoever drafts him, and that is something the Canadiens could certainly use.  But despite his body, he doesn't play a power game.  Nor is he a speedster (not that his skating is a problem).  His game is high-end skill, with quick hands and good hockey sense, both as a playmaker and sniper.  Think the way Joe Thornton is a productive NHL'er, but more of a balanced offensive toolkit rather than an elite passer.  Though Roy himself indicated another year in the Q might be beneficial for the young Russian, if he can impress whoever drafts him in training camp, he already has the physical maturity to make the jump to the big league, which is something that can't necessarily be said about the other three below.

So what scares those who watch Grigorenko play about his NHL future?  First, he struggles with consistency, looking disengaged or unmotivated at times.  He has been accused of scoring the majority of his points against weaker opposition, and coasting/floating with important games on the line.  Some feel the lack of necessary intangibles (e.g. desire, work ethic...) will keep him from reaching his star upside, though scouts are divided on that; there are some who want nothing to do with him on draft day, and others who blame his disinterest on his being a man among boys in the QMJHL.  It was announced at the end of his team's season that Grigorenko had been battling mononucleosis, and some were quick to attribute this to a weaker-than-expected playoff performance on his part, so perhaps there are enough viable reasons to dismiss some of the fears about his future.

That would be all fine if those were the only concerns.  However, though Grigorenko played this season in Quebec, there have been murmurs coming out of Russia throughout the season that his former club CSKA still feels they have a legitimate claim to have him under contract.  Whether or not that is the case, further stories indicate that they will push hard to have him return home to play in the KHL as soon as next season.  The "Russian fear," if you will, has caused many clubs to pass on high potential prospects early in drafts before, and combined with the other concerns, this makes Grigorenko a risky selection.

In summary, Grigorenko is undoubtedly a potential future star.  But there are a lot of question marks to be resolved before he gets to that point.  Can the Canadiens risk gambling their highest pick in quite some time on such a player?  Or are they better off with a safer option?  Feel free to weigh in down below.

Alex Galchenyuk - Center - Sarnia Sting, OHL
6'1", 198 lbs - Shoots L
Rankings: Central Scouting - 4th (North America); Future Considerations - 2nd; The Hockey News - 7th;


There were both doubts and intrigue surrounding Galchenyuk at the start of the year, another player in the discussion as a top 2 or 3 selection.  While he is of Russian ethnicity, Galchenyuk was born in Milwaukee and holds dual citizenship, having opted to represent the United States in international play.  After a season with the Chicago Young Americans, Galchenyuk joined the OHL's Sarnia Sting in 2010-11, where he played (at least some of the time) with consensus 2012 top pick Nail Yakupov.  This had some wondering if Galchenyuk's impressive rookie season of 31 goals and 83 points in 68 games wasn't partially attributable to the work of his skilled teammate, and all were looking forward to seeing his development this season.

Enter the problem in his case: in a September 16th, 2011 preseason game, Galchenyuk injured his knee and required surgery on his ACL.  The recovery kept him out until the final 2 games of the 2011-12 season, and clearly it is hard for an athlete at any level to jump in and have an impact so late in the year.  He was held off the scoresheet in those 2 games, but did manage 2 goals and 4 points in the 6 playoff games Sarnia had before being eliminated, showing that he had fully recovered.

Will the injury scare some clubs off?  Perhaps, as a lost season of development at such a young age could potentially damage a player's career.  ACL injuries are also tough to judge, with lingering effects sometimes a concern.  But Galchenyuk brings a number of assets to the table that have most scouts dreaming about him falling into their reaches.  He is seen as a full package; a good skater who plays an intense game in all three zones, just as reliable on the back check as he is dangerous in the offensive zone.  If work ethic is a concern in Grigorenko's case, it is one of Galchenyuk's strengths, as his an ability to make good use of his solid frame.  All of these attributes have some comparing his game to that of Marian Hossa, who Hab fans will remember their team selecting Jason Ward one pick earlier in 1997.

As a responsible two-way forward, Galchenyuk seems like a Trevor Timmins-type pick.  But that isn't to say he's "more of the same" for Montreal.  At third overall, you're getting a player with a lot more offensive talent than a Kyle Chipchura.  You're adding size down the middle, which addresses an organizational need, and you're adding a center to build around in the team's young core.  What you aren't getting is an immediate replacement for David Desharnais or Tomas Plekanec.  Barring an unbelievable training camp, after not playing this year, it is almost certain Galchenyuk will be returned to Sarnia for another season by whichever club takes him.

Filip Forsberg - Right Wing - Leksands IF, Swedish Elite League
6'2", 181 lbs - Shoots R
Rankings: Central Scouting - 1st (Europe); Future Considerations - 5th; The Hockey News - 2nd;

The advantage Forsberg has over the other three names on this list is that he has proven he can compete with older men.  After getting a 10-game look with the Swedish Elite League's Leksand last season, Forsberg played a full 43 games for them this year as a 17-year old (he only turns 18 in August) and managed 17 points.  Of course, this also presents a challenge to scouts, as comparing potential between guys playing in very different leagues is one of the great difficulties the scouting fraternity faces every year.  While impressive for a player of his age, 17 points in 43 games is far from a dominant offensive output, and Forsberg didn't help himself with just 1 assist in 6 games at this year's World Junior Championship.

Indeed, if you hadn't seen the guy play, you might wonder from his stat page why he's being talked about as a top 5 prospect for this draft class.  While the upside is there, there are legitimate questions as to whether or not Forsberg will be enough of a scorer at the pro level to be a true first liner.  Certainly he does have the potential to be; against peers his own age, he has been a point-per-game player, and capped his season with a highly impressive World U18 in which, as the Swedish team's captain, he scored 5 goals and 7 points in 6 games.

So what makes Forsberg (no relation to the legendary Peter) a top prospect?  Not unlike Galchenyuk, he combines a strong frame with great determination and two-way play.  If Bergevin is content with a small centre line provided he can surround the Plekanecs and Desharnais with more Max Pacioretty and Erik Cole types, then Forsberg becomes a real option, as he doesn't hesitate to dish out hits and play a power game.  Like Pacioretty and Cole, Forsberg's nose for the net means he's a shoot-first type, but there are concerns about his skill level as a high end prospect.  You won't confuse his ability to set up teammates with a Pavel Datsyuk, and that may limit his role at the NHL level to a good 2nd liner or ideal two-way third line winger that can still chip in 20+ goals.  Good at everything, master of little, which is often a red flag for scouts when looking at a prospect.

Still, if Grigorenko is a risk for factors mentioned, and Galchenyuk's knee causes concern, Forsberg is a very safe prospect, sure to be a contributor on an NHL club within a couple of seasons.  And, given that no one can be certain how he will respond to playing in North America, the team that acquires his services may end up pleasantly surprised, not unlike the Philadelphia Flyers with Sean Couturier.

Ryan Murray - Defenseman - Everett Silvertips, WHL
6'1", 201 lbs - Shoots LRankings: Central Scouting - 2nd (North America); Future Considerations - 3rd; The Hockey News - 4th;

Almost everyone has Murray as the top defenseman in this year's draft, and yet whenever I've watched him, I'm left wanting more.  Don't get me wrong, Murray is a stud prospect, sure to be an NHL defenseman in the very near future (particularly given his age, almost a full year older than Filip Forsberg).  But if we were to compare this year's draft with its plethora of talented d-men available to the phenomenal crop from 2008, Murray reminds me more of a Luke Schenn than a Drew Doughty or Alex Pietrangelo.

If there is a skill which sets Murray apart, it's his skating.  He has the look of a Scott Niedermayer on the ice, while slotting into a similar two-way role.  However, aside from his speed, he ranks as "good" in all other areas; shot-blocking, coverage, physicality, offensive awareness...  and all these "good"s combine to make him an extremely safe prospect to be an NHL player for many years.  But is a good and safe player what a team looks for at the top of a draft?  Generally not, as most want a home run in these slots, unless there is a real organizational need for something different (Hi, Edmonton).  Perhaps a team will think highly enough of him for his intangibles, as he does captain the Everett Silvertips

My problem with Murray isn't necessarily the player himself, but rather that I don't see him as leaps and bounds beyond the other blueliners available.  While Murray - to his benefit - is a picture of consistency, a player like Matt Dumba has shown a lot more flash during the course of the season.  Despite missing games with injury, Morgan Rielly's transition game and play in the offensive zone outclass Murray's.  Griffin Reinhart's 6'4", 207 lbs frame is something that Murray physically can't compete with.  Will Murray be better than these guys plus Jacob Trouba and Cody Ceci?  Perhaps, but I don't think he'll be that much better that it makes sense for a team who has taken d-men in the first round each of the last two seasons to select him at #3, with potentially comparable quality blueliners still to be on the board further down the top 10.

If Trevor Timmins and his staff disagree with my assessment and feel that Murray is too good to pass up on, it will at least shore up Montreal's left-handed shooting d-men for the foreseeable future, marking the third year in a row the team selected such a player with their first pick.  Certainly no one would complain about a young defense that includes Murray, Jarred Tinordi, Nathan Beaulieu, P.K. Subban, Alexei Emelin, and Josh Gorges in 3 years time.

And there you have it, the four names that logically make up Montreal's short list for the third overall selection.    If the tone in my evaluations wasn't clear enough, as of today, if I were making the selection, I'd go with Alex Galchenyuk.  Elite superstar potential, size at center, reliable two-way guy meaning he may be as little as one year away from an NHL debut, and without the risk factors of a Mikhail Grigorenko.

But whoever the Canadiens end up taking with this pick, do know two things:
1) The team will be adding a huge piece of the future contender puzzle
2) Do not expect the player to spend more than a 10-game trial (IF that) in Montreal next season

Top 10 Players to Consider at 3rd Overall

If you're like me, then you like to do your own research about a player, combined with takes from a variety of sources, rather than just reading something and making a snap judgment.  It is in this light that today's article will not go in depth about who the Canadiens should take at third overall and why that player is better than all the rest.  Instead, it will give an overview of 10 guys, in a very rough order, about whom you should do some learning over the next 2 months in preparation for the NHL Entry Draft.  In early June, in the weeks leading up to the draft, once I've completed a more thorough analysis of some of these guys, I'll go over my take on who the team should pick and the players' respective strengths and weaknesses.

Without further ado, 10 "prizes" that might await the Habs for their season of hardship.

10. Olli Maatta, D, London Knights (OHL)

When preparing my final top 10 for the Habs' pick prior to last year's draft, I slanted it heavily towards forwards, indicating that was the direction I hoped the team would go.  We now know that the team went with a slider in defenseman Nathan Beaulieu, a pick which may work out well, but which also further accentuates the need to draft a forward this year.  Thus, though there are a number of high potential d-men available, only a few are listed here, with many like Morgan Rielly, Jacon Trouba, Griffin Reinhart, and Matthew Dumba being just as good - if not better - prospects than some of the players listed here, but not filling as much of a need in the organization's depth chart.

If the team does take a d-man though, it is likely that they are most familiar with Maatta, who plays for Jarred Tinordi's London Knights.  The Finnish-born two-way blueliner isn't quite as big as the towering Tinordi, but can handle his own at 6'2", 198 lbs.  On the stacked Knights roster, he finished an impressive +25 as a rookie, and has taken his game up another notch in the playoffs with 12 points in 10 games thus far.

9. Cody Ceci, D, Ottawa 67s (OHL)

Another defenseman who might get consideration is Ceci, who posted a major jump in the NHL Central Scouting Rankings, going from 16th amongst North American skaters at the midterm to 6th.  Ceci, like Beaulieu last year, is a late birthday, meaning he has already completed three full seasons in the Ontario League and will be eligible to jump to the AHL after just one more season of junior hockey.  His numbers this season were head-turning, with 60 points in 64 games ranking behind only Dougie Hamilton offensively. At 6'2", 203 lbs, he already possesses a very solid frame as well.

8. Zemgus Girgensons, C, Dubuque Fighting Saints (USHL)

Scouts have a very tough time comparing USHL players with CHL prospects and European youngsters as play in every league varies significantly.  As such, Girgensons is a bit of a wildcard in the first round, especially as some teams may be hesitant to draft a player of Latvian origin so early (see: the Anze Kopitar effect).  But Girgensons should go early, leading his club with 55 points in 49 games this season, and scoring 2 goals in 6 World Junior games on a weak Latvian squad.  A year earlier, he helped Latvia return to the U20 top division by scoring 4 goals and 7 points in 5 D1 games before his 17th birthday.  At 6'1", 182 lbs, Girgensons shows potential to fill out and become an imposing force down the middle.

7. Teuvo Teravainen, RW, Jokerit Helsinki (Finland)

At 5'10" and 185 lbs, Teravainen doesn't have the size the Canadiens are looking for, but there is little doubt in his skill.  At 17, after scoring 12 goals and 20 points in 11 Finish junior league games, he was called up to the men's league and produced 18 points in 40 games.  He picked it up further scoring 6 points in 9 SM-Liiga playoff games this year.

6. Brendan Gaunce, C, Belleville Bulls (OHL)

Gaunce is a big center like Hab fans have been clamouring for, with a strong 6'2", 205 lbs frame.  Not only did he increase his production from 36 points in 65 games a year ago to 68 in 68 this season (leading his team by 17 points), but he also went from a -31 to a +4.  Gaunce has shown some of what Brian Burke would call truculence, willing to drop the gloves when the need is there.  Anyone on this list here and lower would be a stretch at #3, and would likely mean the Canadiens traded down from where they stood.

5. Ryan Murray, D, Everett Silvertips (WHL)

Murray is seemingly the consensus top defenseman in the draft, so he may be the only blueliner that Hab fans would be able to digest the team taking.  He's not as big as the d-men lower on this list at 6'0", 185 lbs, but he is solid defensively and able to contribute up front with 31 points in 46 games this year (and 3 goals and 5 points in just 4 playoff games).  The word is that Kevin Lowe has approached Murray about playing for Team Canada at this year's World Championships, which will give all scouts a look at how he fares against older and bigger competition.

4. Radek Faksa, C, Kitchener Rangers (OHL)

A native of Opava, Czech Republic, Faksa is another big center at 6'3", 202 lbs.  He crossed over to North America for this season and scored 29 goals and 67 points in 62 games as an OHL rookie.  On the downside, he did miss a bit of time with a concussion, and his scoring clip dipped in the playoffs with 5 points in 8 games.  Still, he plays a strong two-way game, so he may be the kind of complete player the Canadiens like.

3.  Filip Forsberg, LW, Leksand (Sweden)

A popular pick amongst Hab fans for the Canadiens selection, the young 6'1", 176 lbs Forsberg can play any forward position, though he spent most of this year on the wing.  Forsberg made his men's league debut a year ago at the age of just 16, and played 43 games for Leksand (which played in the second tier league since they had been demoted) this season, scoring 17 points against much older competition.  Forsberg won't turn 18 until August and possesses a high level of skill along with a coveted right-handed shot, but he failed to improve his ranking with just 1 assist in 6 games at this year's World Junior Championships.  Lots of potential as a future NHL two-way first liner, but his offensive upside remains a bit of a question mark since he has not dominated offensively on any major stage.  He needs to fill out, but the fact that he has competed against men has some believing he is reasonably close to NHL-ready.

1/2.  Alex Galchenyuk, C, Sarnia Sting (OHL) and Mikhail Grigorenko, C, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL)

Come June, I will make a pick between Galchenyuk and Grigorenko as to who I think would be the better choice for the Canadiens, but I'm not ready to make a call just yet.  Both are skilled centers, with Galcheyuk standing 6'1", 185 lbs, and Grigorenko 6'2", 191 lbs, but Galchenyuk is seen as the more complete two-way player of the two.  Grigorenko has the slightly flashier offensive numbers, scoring 85 points in 59 games this season on his way to being named QMJHL rookie of the year, but has also been criticized of disappearing at times, or being lazy.  Galchenyuk missed the vast majority of this season following knee surgery, but a year ago had 83 points in 68 games has an OHL rookie centering consensus number 1 pick Nail Yakupov (left off this list because he will be unavailable to Montreal unless the team trades up to first).  Some say he might have even been in the conversation for first overall had he played this season, while others wonder if his numbers were inflated from playing with Yakupov.  His work ethic and American development roots have many thinking he may be a Trevor Timmins type of guy.  With either of these young men, the Habs will be adding a potential superstar, though it should also be mentioned that there is no guarantee either is ready for a starring role this very Fall.

Previewing the NHL's Draft Lottery

Tonight at 8 PM EST, live on TSN, the final draft order for the NHL's non-playoff clubs will be determined.  Previously, I've covered the rules of the Draft Lottery, as well as gone over the Canadiens' odds, but today we'll look at a couple of scenarios.

To begin, here is a table created by James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail showing where each team could draft, and the odds of each spot:

If we combine this with a look at the final Central Scouting Service prospect rankings released yesterday, we get an idea of the kind of players expected to be available to each team.

 Nail Yakupov is far and away the consensus top player in this year's draft, and thus the reason why many clubs have major fingers crossed to win tonight's lottery.  While there are many other prospects with a lot of potential, Yakupov - at least at forward - looks like the only "sure bet."  Mikhail Grigorenko is often accused of being a lazy player, Alex Galchenyuk has questions around him due to his lost season with a knee injury, and Filip Forsberg's offensive upside is also unclear.

So what of our beloved Habs?  If the 14.2% chance of the team moving up comes to pass - and the third-to-last place team has won the lottery three times since 2000 - then the team should consider no options other than drafting Yakupov.  No, he doesn't bring the size the Canadiens are ideally looking for at 5'11", 190 lbs.  Grigorenko and Galchenyuk offer more size down the middle, a weakness in the Canadiens organization, and Forsberg is a bigger presence at wing.  But Yakupov offers what the Habs truly need most - gamebreaking superstar talent.  Playing on, for example, a line with Tomas Plekanec and Brian Gionta, he could alleviate the team's lack of 2nd line scoring, and allow the club to play Rene Bourque (assuming he's back) outside of a top 6 role.  Yakupov is in fact perhaps the only forward from this year's draft who should be a sure-thing to make the jump straight to the NHL next season.  All others will be a wait-and-see process going into training camp.

But let's say Montreal doesn't win the draft lottery.  Let's say the Blue Jackets win it, the most likely of scenarios.  If we assume that the Canadiens really want to draft a forward, then arguably Mikhail Grigorenko should be their man.  This shouldn't be a problem, as with the 2nd pick, the Edmonton Oilers are very likely to take a defenseman.  However, it doesn't mean the Habs are out of the woods.  There are a number of top-notch d-men the Oilers can choose from including Ryan Murray, Morgan Rielly, Cody Ceci, Olli Maatta, Jacob Trouba, Griffin Reinhart, and Matt Dumba.  Given this, if the Oilers don't see one of these players as far and away superior to the others, it is possible they trade with a team in the 4-6 range that wants Girgorenko in order to pick up some additional assets.  Montreal, at third overall, would thus be left in the dust, having to choose from one of the other remaining players.  Thus, even if the team remains at number three, there is reason to hold your breath until Trevor Timmins descends from the podium with the pick announced.

As for the lottery itself, what should Habs fans want and not want to see?  The top 5 picks will be unveiled on TSN beggining from #5, currently held by the Toronto Maple Leafs.  When the fifth pick is revealed, Habs fans should hope to still see a Leafs logo in that spot, as the last thing the team wants is for 8.1% chance of Toronto winning the lottery to come to pass.  If the logo revealed is Winnipeg's, it would mean that they won the draft lottery, dropping Toronto to 6 and the other top 4 remaining the same.  If the logo revealed is the New York Islanders, that means someone in the 4 slots below New York won the lottery and jumped up (possibly - but not necessarily - being Toronto).

If pick #5 remains Toronto, the only way the Canadiens could draft 4th is if the New York Islanders won the lottery, so that's what Montreal in the four slot would reveal.  If pick #5 has become the Islanders, then Montreal would be locked in the #4 slot unless it is Carolina who won the lottery, so that would be the logo Habs fans should hope to see in the envelope.

If picks 5 and 4 remain Toronto and the Islanders, the third pick would become the moment of truth for the Canadiens.  At this point, the winner of the draft lottery would have to be either Columbus, Edmonton, Montreal, or a team with the 10th to 14th best odds (who could not move into the top 5).  If the Oilers logo is in the envelope, fans can celebrate - Montreal will have won the lottery.  Otherwise, the Canadiens logo will be in there.  Of course, if the Habs weren't revealed as the fourth pick, regardless of what else happened in envelopes 5 and 4, they have to be in this one or the first pick one, as those are the only spots the system enables them to pick.  Thus, the latest that Habs fans could find out their fate is with the opening of this one.

So perform your rituals and ready your lucky charms, Habs fans.  Tonight is a big night in setting the stage for the evening of June 22nd when teams will announce their first round selections in Pittsburgh.  For one last time - for now - GO HABS GO!

Canadiens Lock in a Top Pick

Though they picked up three out of a possible four points over their back to back against the Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes, by losing last night's shootout, the Montreal Canadiens made certain that a painful season wouldn't go without compensation for suffering fans.

By earning just 1 point last night, combined with wins by the Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders, the Habs can now finish now higher than 28th in the league, ahead of only the Edmonton Oilers and Columbus Blue Jackets.  This guarantees them the third overall pick prior to the draft lottery which will take place on Tuesday, April 10th, at 8:00 PM EST.  The team in that spot has a 14.2% chance of winning the lottery and thus moving up to the first overall selection.

There is still a chance that the Habs miss out on a top 3 selection if one of the teams in the four slots below them wins the lottery.  The odds of this happening are roughly a combined 29.7%.  Thus, if the Canadiens do stay in 28th, the breakdown would be:

Pick 1st overall - 14.2% chance
Pick 3rd overall - 56.1% chance
Pick 4th overall - 29.7% chance

There is still a slim hope of moving up to the 2nd pick by sliding down to 29th overall, which fist would require the Canadiens to lose in regulation to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday night.  That is conceivable, and also may worsen Toronto's own selection by as much as two spots.  However, to move up, the Canadiens also need the Edmonton Oilers to win their game later that evening - no small task given they're taking on the Vancouver Canucks.  So I would categorize moving up in this way as unlikely at this point, but not impossible, especially if the Canucks use the final game to rest a few bodies (though this may be improbable given the Western Conference title is still up for grabs).

So enjoy that last game tomorrow night, Habs fans.  The Tank Mission is as complete as it can be.  Let's hope to watch our boys kick some Maple Leaf butt to go off into the very long summer break on a high note.  While this will be my last post of the regular season, now that I'm back in Montreal, content will resume as usual on Monday.  Just as last summer, we'll have features on various Montreal Canadiens-related aspects every weekday all summer long!  Thanks for tuning in on this turbulent 2011-12 ride.

A Day To Look Forward To

On the day of one of the most critical games for the Canadiens to lose against the 29th place Edmonton Oilers, I come with a message of hope. Were you getting depressed about the next exciting Habs moment still being 3 and a half months away at the Entry Draft in June? Then I have good news for you - you can cheer for your Habs to win something much sooner than that.

Following the conclusion of the NHL's regular season in April, a draft lottery is held to determine the final picking order of all non-playoff teams. For those that don't follow this too closely, it isn't the same kind of lottery as was held in Sidney Crosby's post-lockout draft year back in 2005 with all clubs having a shot at the prized top pick. Rather, it is a weighted lottery with any of the 14 eliminated clubs having a chance to have their name drawn. Having your name drawn, however, does not give you the first overall pick. Here's how it works:

14 balls are loaded into the lottery machine, and four are pulled out at random to form some number sequence. This sequence is matched against a random probability table of 1,0001 numbers with each combination corresponding to one of the teams. The team finishing 30th in the overall standings has the most slots on this 1,0001 number list, with 25% of the outcomes. The 29th place team has about an 18.8% chance of being selected, and the probabilities decline roughly as follows:

28th -14.2%

27th - 10.7%

26th - 8.1%

25th - 6.2%

24th - 4.7%

23rd - 3.6%

22nd - 2.7%

21st - 2.1%

20th - 1.5%

19th - 1.1%

18th - 0.8%

17th - 0.5%

Only one team is "selected" through this process. That club's pick moves up 4 spots (or simply to number 1 if it's one of the bottom 4 teams). So the 10th pick team would get the 6th pick, or the 7th place team the third pick, and so on. The rest of the order remains unchanged, meaning a club can't drop more than one slot down from where they finished, and the team that finishes last (Hi Columbus) has a 48.2% chance of retaining the first overall selection (including even if they don't win the lottery) based on this system.

That first overall selection will be highly coveted this year, as Nail Yakupov projects as by far the closest thing in the class to a can't-miss star. While there are a number of impressive eligible defensemen, that won't excite Canadiens fans after taking d-men in the first round for the past two seasons. After Yakupov, top forwards include Mikhail Griogrenko - about whose consistency and commitment there are questions - and Alex Galchenyuk - who has missed the whole season with a knee injury. While either Grigorenko or Galchenyuk would make a phenomenal building block for the Habs, especially given that they are both rangy centers - something the team has lacked for quite some time - if the team has the chance to get their hands on Yakupov, I don't think it would be worth passing up.

Yes, there is a need for a big center; I've reminded one and all of that fact on numerous occasions. But the far bigger need is for some legitimate star power, and this is much too great of an opportunity to land such a player to make any kind of gamble or mistake. While Yakupov is a little undersized at 5'10", 189 lbs, he plays the game with enough grit, skill, and tenacity to make you overlook the weakness. He will make fans still whining over the departure of Mike Cammalleri forget him very quickly.

Be sure to keep your calendars flexible Habs fans, as the lottery day is just about a month away. No matter what, Montreal will walk out of June's draft with a top prospect added to its stable, but upgrading the team's selection to #1 would be a tremendous consolation prize to a horrendously disappointing season.

Why a Tanked Season Will Be Worth It

Habs fans, meet Mikhail Grigorenko. If things continue as they should and have been progressing, you will get to know this young man quite intimately beginning in June.

Grigorenko is a 17-year old Russian-born forward who is rather unanimously expected to go number two overall behind countryman Nail Yakupov at this summer's NHL Entry Draft. We'll start with the stats.

In his first WJC this Christmas, despite his young age, Grigorenko produced 2 goals and 5 points in 6 contests on the strong Russian squad. A year ago, at the U18 event, he had an incredible 18 points in just 7 games.

But tournaments are a small sample size. His play has carried over to this season, where he is a member of the Patrick Roy-coached Quebec Remparts. In his Q rookie season, Grigorenko has scored 28 goals and 64 points in 41 games. This puts him 10th in QMJHL scoring, despite having played fewer games than everyone above him, and tops amongst the league's first year players.

I've talked quite a bit about the need for a premiere, big, first line centre to revamp / restructure the forward group in Montreal. Of course, as I and many others are quick to reply, those don't grow on trees. Even if a Ryan Getzlaf or Eric Staal is to become available some time this summer, the cost of acquiring such a player is likely to be hugely prohibitive. So how else can you fill the need? The draft of course. And finishing 10th in the East to draft 12th overall will not be enough to do it. A tanked season of finishing near the bottom of the league is what is required.

Did I mention Grigorenko is 6'2" and has played mostly centre this season? A centre line of Grigorenko, Desharnais/Plekanec, Eller, and a big and tough 4th liner would go a long way towards changing this team's identity. Understand that if Montreal can secure the 2nd overall pick, we're not talking about a player who could help the team out some 3-5 years down the road. We're talking about a guy who will be ready to step right in for the 2012-13 season and be a big-time contributor. Now it won't be easy. It means being happy when the team drops a game, or when those around win, which takes some getting used to. It still pains me to have mixed feelings when the Habs blow a lead like they did last night to the New Jersey Devils. But think greater good. The playoffs are out of reach. Forego the immediate gratification and short-term satisfaction of a single Habs win in order to add a piece in the near term that could and should drop the wait time for the next Stanley Cup parade in Montreal significantly. Accept some pain right now for the ability to watch a young star - a legitimate offensive gamebreaking superstar like the team hasn't had in many, many years - on a nightly basis beginning in a few months.

Of course, it isn't so easy. The Canadiens have shown the occasional ability to win games against all odds, and it will need to happen even less frequently if they want to be certain not to pass too many other teams.

It seems Yakupov, a smaller right winger, can already start looking for a home in the greater Columbus area. But there is quite a log-jam, or race for the bottom if you will, amongst the other teams whose seasons didn't go according to plan. The young Edmonton Oilers appear destined to get a little scarier this June, though with a number of stud d-men available outside the top 2, they are more likely to go that route given a roster including the likes of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall, and Jordan Eberle. The Anaheim Ducks have an older team that is failing to produce, leading to some speculation they may even look to trade a core player like Ryan Getzlaf or Bobby Ryan. Such a move would help them tank if their goal is to rebuild around a guy like Grigorenko. The Carolina Hurricanes are also looking for help throughout their roster, though they don't have tremendous need at center. This is important because even if Montreal doesn't naturally finish with the 2nd overall pick, they may be able to trade up from a top 5 or 6 selection by sweetening the pot with some other assets if the team in question isn't all-in on Grigorenko.

So what must happen now for the team to "tank?" Understand that we're not talking about purposely throwing games. Nor are we talking about playing a line of Aaron Palushaj, Andreas Engqvist, and Mike Blunden for 20 minutes a night. But we are talking about moving some non-essential veteran players for picks and prospects between now and the end of the month. Think Hal Gill, Travis Moen, Yannick Weber, Petteri Nokelainen, Andrei Kostitsyn, Tomas Kaberle, and maybe one of Tomas Plekanec or David Desharnais. Such moves don't guarantee anything, of course, but the Canadiens lack AHL depth this season, so replacing these guys with some unready bodies should push the team towards the league's basement. The plan comes full circle in the sense that some of the assets acquired for dealing these players could help the team jump from a 5th overall to 2nd.

Hang in there, Habs fans. There are some solid pieces in place in Montreal, and better days are ahead. Is it worth the suffering? Patrick Roy, for one, seems to think that a player of Griogrenko's calibre will make up for all the hard times gone through to pick him up. All that will be left will be to convince Grigorenko to take #13 in Montreal to allow us to simply change the nameplate on all of our Mike Cammalleri jerseys.