One Last Chance?

There will still be 36 games left in the Montreal Canadiens' season after tonight's matchup against the Washington Capitals, but if the team doesn't get hot in a hurry, their outcome won't particularly matter. The Habs enter tonight's contest with a dismal 42 points in 45 games, finding themselves 8 big points behind those same Capitals for the 8th and final playoff spot, with Washington also holding a game in hand. (Meanwhile, Montreal is just 2 points ahead of Tampa Bay for last in the East, though the Canadiens have 3 games in hand in that "race") The team is running out of track to make up the difference with their only shot at the post-season looking like an extended win streak starting soon.

At this point, the team won't be mathematically eliminated for quite a while, so there is no set date or game that officially marks the end of the playoff dream, but coming off a big win against the New York Rangers and playing against the team they're chasing makes tonight a big one for our boys. I've written a couple of times that in my mind, the playoffs are already out of reach for this season, but hope springs eternal so if they can win tonight, I'll believe in the team getting on the comeback trail for just a little longer. After the 8th place Capitals, the Canadiens have a back-to-back against the Pittsburgh Penguins and Toronto Maple Leafs, in 7th and 9th place respectively. A perfect week might put the swagger back in the step of Habs fans who have walked through most of the season with their heads hanging low. The Canadiens look about as healthy as they're going to be, with Brian Gionta likely done for the season and Andrei Markov's return date in doubt given that he still has yet to resume skating. Only Ryan White, expected back after the All-Star game, will provide reinforcements, but while he'll be a welcome addition to the fourth line, he won't be the difference maker to the team's season. But if they can get strong play from newcomer Rene Bourque (who will be a marked man tonight after a hit on Caps' Niklas Backstrom landed him a 5-game suspension) and consistent effort from the likes of Tomas Plekanec, Max Pacioretty, and Lars Eller (I leave Erik Cole and David Desharnais out of this sentence as they've been the team's top forwards for most of the season and thus should be expected to keep performing), getting hot isn't out of the question. And then maybe, just maybe, if and when Markov does return, the team finds a way to squeak into the playoffs thanks to a dominant second half.

Of course, the opposite is true as well. A loss tonight would put the Habs 10 points out of 8th with the Capitals still holding a game in hand. Should this happen, the only games I'll have circled on my calendar are those against the Leafs, hoping that Montreal can do its part to extend their playoff drought.

2011/12 NHL Preview - Southeast Division

We've covered the West (Northwest, Central, Pacific), so now we turn our attention to the Eastern Conference, beginning today with the Southeast. Seen for several years as the league's softest, the Southeast has rebounded, now with two clubs that have legitimate eyes on taking the East.

CAROLINA HURRICANES

Projected depth chart / lines:

Jussi Jokinen - Eric Staal - Jeff Skinner

Tuomo Ruutu - Brandon Sutter - Alexei Ponikarovsky

Chad Larose - Zac Dalpe - Zach Boychuk

Jiri Tlusty - Tim Brent - Anthony Stewart

Joni Pitkanen - Tomas Kaberle

Bryan Allen - Jamie McBain

Derek Joslin - Tim Gleason

Cam Ward

Brian Boucher

The 'Canes have missed the playoffs for two seasons in a row, and were as active as they could be this off-season to try to get back into contention. The club managed to keep most of their pending UFA like Joni Pitkanen and Jussi Jokinen, only really having to say goodbye to Erik Cole. The club will hope young players like Zach Boychuk and Zac Dalpe are ready to pick up the offensive slack left by Cole's departure, as free agent signings Alexei Ponikarovsky and Anthony Stewart are low-risk gamble shots in the dark. After a strong sophomore season in 2009-10 where he topped the 20 goal mark, Brandon Sutter regressed last year, so Carolina will need him to bounce back. The club must also hope that last year's standout 18-year old rookie Jeff Skinner doesn't hit a sophomore slump, or else it could be a long season for the Hurricanes up front.

On defense, Tomas Kaberle was a great value signing after his poor play with the Boston Bruins minimized interest in his services league-wide. Kaberle has topped 45 points in 5 of the last 6 seasons (the only miss being a year he scored 31 points in just 57 games), despite playing for some pretty poor clubs. 23-year old offensive d-man Jamie McBain should continue his development after putting up an amazing 10 points in 14 NHL games at the end of the 2009-10 season, and building that into a 30 point rookie season last year. He is a nice sleeper pick for a late round of a deep hockey draft.

If the 'Canes due have a chance to surprise this year despite some holes and questions, it's because of Cam Ward. After winning the Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe as a rookie, Ward has shown he is amongst the game's best goaltenders and will give his team a chance to win on any given night.

YourCanadiens Verdict: Bubble playoff team.

FLORIDA PANTHERS

Projected depth chart / lines:

David Booth - Stephen Weiss - Kris Versteeg

Tomas Fleischmann - Sean Bergenheim - Tomas Kopecky

Evgeni Dadonov - Scottie Upshall - Matt Bradley

Jack Skille - Marcel Goc - Mike Santorelli

Brian Campbell - Mike Weaver

Dmitry Kulikov - Ed Jovanovski

Jason Garrison - Keaton Ellerby

Jose Theodore

Scott Clemmensen

We covered the remodeling of the Florida Panthers in an earlier piece, and certainly the club that will begin the 2011-12 season looks nothing like that which finished 2010-11. Up front, the acquisitions were numerous as the team struggled to reach the salary cap floor. Kris Versteeg has become somewhat of a journeyman, now joining his fourth club since 2009-10, but his ability to contribute offensively cannot be questioned. Sean Bergenheim and Tomas Fleischmann were great high-potential-payoff underrated signings (both were high on our initial wish list of Habs targets), though the team did have to overpay to bring them in. When Bergenheim was taken in the first round in 2002, he was seen as a similar player to fellow Finn Saku Koivu, but his offense never seemed to translate at the NHL level. He broke out last season, first with a career high of 29 points, but then far more importantly, 9 goals and 11 points in 16 playoff games - certainly the kind of clip the Panthers would love to see him at this year. A third round selection in 2007, skilled Russian Evgeni Dadonov should see full-time action at the NHL level after scoring 17 points in 36 games with Florida last year. It will be interesting to see how this chemistry experiment plays itself out, but it is unlikely to yield immediate results.

On defense, the big ticket acquisitions of Brian Campbell and Ed Jovanovski will soak up minutes to allow the young core to develop at their own pace. Leading this group of youth is 2009 1st rounder Dmitry Kulikov, already entering his third season in the big league after scoring 26 points in 72 games last year.

The team lost starter Tomas Vokoun to free agency this summer, instead going with a duo of Jose Theodore and Scott Clemensen to hold the fort until top prospect Jacob Markstrom is ready for full-time duty. Over the last two seasons, Theodore seemed to have refound his game, so he should be an adequate stop-gap.

YourCanadiens Verdict: Out of the playoffs.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Projected depth chart / lines:

Ryan Malone - Steven Stamkos - Martin St. Louis

Teddy Purcell - Vincent Lecavalier - Steve Downie

Ryan Shannon - Dominic Moore - Nate Thompson

Tom Pyatt - Dana Tyrell - Adam Hall

Victor Hedman - Mattias Ohlund

Pavel Kubina - Eric Brewer

Brett Clark - Matt Gilroy

Dwayne Roloson

Mathieu Garon

The Lightning lost quite a bit of offensive depth this summer, but still possess perhaps the game's top duo in Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis (though I'm sure the Sedins would disagree... so let's say best non-brother duo). Dominic Moore set a career high with 18 goals last season and looks to have perhaps finally found a more permanent fit after stops in New York, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Toronto, Buffalo, Florida, and Montreal (all by the age of 31 - WOW!). Teddy Purcell is coming off a breakout season with 51 points after joining the Lightning from the Los Angeles Kings at the 2009-10 trade deadline, and the team hopes that young first rounder prospects Carter Ashton and Brett Connolly will be able to follow his progression and make the jump to the big league in the near future to replace the likes of Simon Gagne and Sean Bergenheim.

Tampa has quietly assembled what might be the best overall D in the league for the coming season, with Victor Hedman - now in his third year - expected to emerge as a true #1 workhorse. The team managed to retain Eric Brewer after picking him up during last season, and added Rangers cast-off Matt Gilroy in an underrated move (we wanted him in Montreal), ensuring that Marc-Andre Bergeron won't have to form part of the permanent top 6.

It's a good thing the team's defense is so strong, as starter Dwayne Roloson will turn 42 just after the season kicks off on October 12. Rolli had a great year and is a very impressive athlete given his age, but did show signs of fatigue as the playoffs rolled on. Fortunately, the team locked up a very capable back-up in Mathieu Garon who could easily split time with Roloson to give him any rest he needs.

YourCanadiens Verdict: Solid playoff team.

WASHINGTON CAPITALS

Projected depth chart / lines:

Alexander Ovechkin - Nicklas Backstrom - Alexander Semin

Troy Brouwer - Brooks Laich - Mike Knuble

Marcus Johansson - Joel Ward - Jason Chimera

D.J. King - Jeff Halpern - Matt Hendricks

Roman Hamrlik - Mike Greene

John Carlson - Dennis Wideman

Jeff Schultz - Karl Alzner

Tomas Vokoun

Michal Neuvirth

The Capitals seemed to make all the right moves in all the right places this off-season, adding size up front in budding power forward Troy Brouwer while cementing their bottom 6 with the additions of playoff vets Joel Ward and Jeff Halpern. They are a popular pick as a league favourite at this stage, now boasting a far deeper team than just the top line of Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Alexander Semin. Their 2nd line - with Brouwer, Brooks Laich, and Mike Knuble - offers three big bodies that are certain to be a challenge to defend against. Marcus Johansson had a strong rookie season at the age of 20 last year when put into a big minute role due to injuries. When the team is healthy, he should be able to play against opposing bottom lines and thus may be able to surpass last season's 13 goals and 27 points.

On defense, Roman Hamrlik seems like the perfect signing to balance out the offense-first Mike Greene and John Carlson. The veteran may be slowing down with age, but he provided very valuable services to the Canadiens and will be missed. Former first round selection Karl Alzner should take on a bigger role entering his second year as a full-time NHL'er. The club has a bit of a log-jam on the bottom pairing, with both Tom Poti and John Erskine also under contract, at $2.875M and $1.5M respectively. Given that the team still needs to do a bit of wiggling to get under the salary cap, expect one of the two to find a new employer soon enough.

The team's biggest coup this off-season, however, was in nets. After getting a king's ransom in return for Semyon Varlamov - who some felt would ultimately end up being a third stringer behind Michal Neuvirth and Braden Holtby - the club signed star keeper Tomas Vokoun to a dirt cheap one year contract, filling perhaps the last hole needed to make the Caps a true top flight contender.

YourCanadiens Verdict: Conference contender.

WINNIPEG JETS

Projected depth chart / lines:

Andrew Ladd - Nikolai Antropov - Bryan Little

Evander Kane - Alexander Burmistrov - Blake Wheeler

Chris Thorburn - Jim Slater - Eric Fehr

Patrice Cormier - Ben Maxwell - Tanner Glass

Dustin Byfuglien - Tobias Enstrom

Ron Hainsey - Zach Bogosian

Mark Stuart - Johnny Oduya

Ondrej Pavelec

Chris Mason

Excitement over the return of the Jets gave way to a bit of disappointment as the former Atlanta Thrashers were rather quiet over the off-season. This may have been in part intentional, however. It gives management and ownership one year to evaluate the talent that is in place, and besides, given the crazy travel schedule they'll have playing one year out of the Southeast Division, even the best of rosters would have likely had some difficulty in succeeding. So perhaps the bigger splashes come next summer.

Meanwhile, the team should benefit from the continued development of Bryan Little and Evander Kane up front, two young stars who just happen to be western Canadian born and should feel at home in Manitoba. Alexander Burmistrov, the team's first round pick in 2010, had a quiet season as a 19-year old, but with a full year of experience under his belt should easily surpass the 20 points he finished with. Team captain Andrew Ladd (who conspiracy theorists will remind you is also a western Canada kid) set career highs with 29 goals and 59 points last year so he'll look to continue on that high armed with a new long-term contract. While there is a solid young core in place, the team lacks in depth at the moment, and without sufficient go-to talent on the top lines, they will struggle to produce for stretches this year.

On the backend, though, the Jets can count on a solid group of 7 (the 6 above + Randy Jones). Developing star Zach Bogosian remains unsigned but hopes to have a deal in place for camp. While the team lacks in offense, the top pair of Dustyin Byfuglien and Tobias Enstrom are skilled in supporting the attack and will both be counted on when the younger forwards slump.

In goal, it is reasonable to expect that Ondrej Pavelec and Chris Mason split games at about a 50-30 ratio, provided the former's health concerns are all behind him. When he has been on the ice, Pavelec has shown improvement year over year and this could be the season he establishes himself as a true number 1.

YourCanadiens Verdict: Out of the playoffs.

Thanks for reading. Monday we move on in the East to the Atlantic Division, before previewing the Habs and the Northeast Tuesday, and finally our full predictions on Wednesday.

Around the League: Top 5 Trades of the Summer

Previously, we looked at players we felt were the best value signings of the summer. Today we look at the other transactions that have occurred, namely trades, to try to identify the deals that will most help one or both of the involved teams this season and beyond.

With a thin UFA crop, hockey fans were spoiled with a significant number of high profile deals which began right before draft weekend. Here are 5 of the biggest.

5) The San Jose Sharks trade forward Dany Heatley to the Minnesota Wild for winger Martin Havlat.

This marks the third trade in Dany Heatley's 9 season NHL career, and each has been a significant blockbuster. To some, these players have been heading in opposite directions of late; in Heatley's case, coming off his worst season since 2003-04, while Havlat seems to have put the biggest knock on him - injury concerns - to rest for now, with 78, 73, and 81 games played over the past 3 seasons respectively. With two seasons of over 100 points, Heatley brings more star power to the table, but he has always benefited from highly skilled linemates, showing he may be more of a complimentary than core player. Havlat, on the other hand, has shown the ability to create offense on his own, and while he has seldom reached the 1 point-per-game mark, plays a more intense, hardnosed game than Heatley. The deal has potential to be good for both sides, with a change of scenery sometimes bringing out the best in a player. For now, though, since Havlat's cap hit is $2.5M less than Heatley's, which allowed the Sharks to sign Brent Burns (see lower down the list) to a lengthy extension, we'll score San Jose as the winner. The club was also facing Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Dan Boyle, and Heatley all hitting the UFA market at the same time in 3 years, so they've hedged their bets by swapping for Havlat who has 4 years remaining on his deal.

4) The Philadelphia Flyers trade center Jeff Carter to the Columbus Blue Jackets for Jakub Voracek and the Blue Jackets' 1st and 3rd round picks in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.

We'll come right out and say it: love this trade for the Flyers. Absolutely no disrespect intended to Jeff Carter, who is a tremendous hockey player and provides more offensive depth to try to get Columbus over that post-season hump. But in all honesty, it wouldn't be a huge surprise of Jakub Voracek's year-end point total is close to that of Carter's (though with fewer goals of course). Add in that Philadelphia added a top prospect to their stable in Sean Couturier, and had the money to fix their biggest weakness - goaltending - in signing Ilya Bryzgalov, and this trade appears to be a homerun. It will be interesting to monitor Carter's performance with the Jackets, who are clearly trying to shift to a "win now" mentality, having only made the playoffs once and never having won a playoff series. He doesn't seem like a natural fit to play with star Rick Nash, as both have sniping shoot-first mentalities, so the intent was perhaps to bring some scoring balance to a traditionally one-line team. It's a risky move for the club, however, with Carter's contract not ending until the year 2022 (no, that's not a typo).

3) The Washington Capitals trade goaltender Semyon Varlamov to the Colorado Avalanche for a 1st round pick in 2012 and a 2nd rounder in either 2012 or 2013.

The Colorado Avalanche faced public scrutiny this season for making some questionable deals, so certainly their general manager would be careful to manage perception this summer, right? Wrong. Yes, the Avs desperately needed to fix their goaltending situation for both the short and long terms. But why they chose to pin their hopes on a still mostly unproven 23 year old who is coming off an injury-plagued season is beyond me. Varlamov is a solid netminder, always putting up strong numbers when healthy. However, he has yet to play more than 27 games in a season, so it is premature to consider him a surefire top tier starter. With many reasonable and affordable names on the goalie UFA market this summer, the logical approach for Colorado would have been to get 2 of them under contract and see what happens, while drafting and developing a young talent of their own. But conventional the Avs are not, giving up what COULD be as high as a top 5 pick in next year's entry draft, plus an additional second rounder, to acquire Varlamov, before signing J.S. Giguere as a back-up / mentor to ease the young Russian into a starting role. If Varlamov stays healthy, fans of the Avalanche won't have to feel too bad about this trade as he could play in the league for many years, but Capitals fans had to feel down right dirty after hearing this news. With a log-jam in goal already due to the strong play of fellow young netminders Brayden Holtby and Michael Neuvirth, Varlamov appeared headed for the KHL, meaning Washington basically acquired two free draft picks for what was to be a rapidly depreciating asset. And as if that wasn't enough, the Caps were then able to sign an aging Tomas Vokoun to guard their goal for a year, and he remains one of the best in the league.

2) The Minnesota Wild trade rover (but really defenseman) Brent Burns and a 2nd round draft choice to the San Jose Sharks in return for Devin Setoguchi, Charlie Coyle, and a 1st round selection.

Our last two deals rank at the top because we expect them to work out for both sides. Brent Burns is a highly underrated player who doesn't get enough press due to the league's "Eastern Conference bias." The Sharks' back-end was severely lacking after Dan Boyle, who just may hang up the skates at the end of the three years remaining on his contract, so for their team, Burns is a very important addition. Plus, from an asset management perspective, Burns' great shot and ability to take shifts as a winger (much like Dustin Byfuglien) means San Jose is likely not to notice the departure of Devin Setoguchi much. Clearly the team has been frustrated by their post-season failures, so a shuffling of the deck like this just may leave them with the right pieces in place to take a longer run at the Cup. For Minnesota, with Burns having been a pending UFA next summer, the club likely felt they wouldn't be able to re-sign him, and obtained quality younger assets in his place. They used the first rounder to select center Zack Phillips, and add Charlie Coyle, a first round pick in 2010, to their organization, essentially meaning that they picked up three 1sts for a player they might have lost for nothing in a year's time. The Wild need to hope that Setoguchi gets back to a production level like the 2008-09 season, where he topped the 30 goal mark and had 65 points, rather than the two seasons that followed of 36 and 41 points respectively.

1) The Philadelphia Flyers trade former captain Mike Richards to the Los Angeles Kings for prospect Brayden Schenn, forward Wayne Simmonds, and a 2nd round pick in 2012.

We love the moves the Kings made this summer, and while they paid a hefty price, they've acquired the kind of player you can build a hockey team around in Mike Richards. Along with Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, Justin Williams, Simon Gagne, and Dustin Penner, Richards gives the Kings what might be the best all-around top 6 forward group in the league. Brayden Schenn will be a great player in the NHL, but how his offense will translate to the big league is still unknown. The Flyers are gambling a little in the short term, but created a bunch of cap space to complete theyother moves they wanted to make and added a surefire bluechipper to the system. Wayne Simmonds is no slouch either, a guy that many feel could eventually be a top 6 power forward, but with limited offensive production thus far, remains more of a tweener two-way third line type. In any case, all three players swapped in this move are expected to play significant roles on their teams for the upcoming season, and both clubs can be considered favourites to make noise come playoff time, which is why we consider this to be the move with the biggest impact this off-season.