Friday, November 11, 2011

Habs MVP: Josh Gorges

At season's end, whether or not the Montreal Canadiens make the playoffs is likely to depend most on Carey Price. To get there, certainly, they'll need offensive contributions from the likes of Mike Cammalleri and Brian Gionta, and strong two-way play from Tomas Plekanec. They'll also probably need a healthy Andrei Markov (sooner rather than later) to bolster the D and fix the powerplay. And definitely the size of Erik Cole and Max Pacioretty has brought the club an offensive element it has lacked for years.

But for my money, thus far this season, the Habs' MVP is none other than Josh Gorges.

Of course I don't say this only as a reactionary statement to his powerplay goal last night, ensuring a win in a game where a loss meant falling into another prolonged slump. Sure, that helped, but on a team whose biggest weakness is inexperience and softness on the back end, and with sophomore P.K. Subban having more downs than ups thus far, Gorges has been the team's top blueliner.

Gorges, a simple defensive d-man whose career high is just 23 points, has a goal and 6 assists through 15 games, good enough to rank 8th on the Canadiens and tops amongst his fellow rearguards. Since he doesn't get a powerplay shift, all of his points have come at even strength, ranking him 5th on the Habs for points at 5-on-5 and, perhaps more impressive, tying him for 6th league-wide amongst defenseman in this category.

But it's more than just the offense. In returning from a significant injury, Gorges has played with tenacity, provided leadership to his young teammates, and been the same determined, hard-working d-man that got him to the big league in the first place. His +7 rating is the best on the team, and he ranks third in ice time at 21:06 per game, behind only Subban and Plekanec. He is able to eat up difficult minutes to protect younger players like Yannick Weber, Raphael Diaz, and Alexei Emelin, each of which has struggled at times in their own end.

It will be interesting to see how the Canadiens shuffle the pairings when Andrei Markov returns to the line-up. Gorges has spent much of the past few seasons playing on the right side, paired with Markov or Hal Gill. But his successes this year have come on a more natural left side, paired with Subban. Assuming that after a couple of games, Markov will be looked upon to play over 20 minutes a night, he will need a partner who can do likewise, indicating he is likely to play with either Subban or Gorges. Presumably the other of the two would then be paired with Gill (seeing as both have had success with him in the past), meaning that either way, Gorges would find himself back on the right. Hopefully this won't impact his strong start, and given that it is still a familiar situation for him, it really shouldn't.

The "trouble" then will come at year's end, given that Gorges's current one-year deal, paying him just $2.5M, would make him an unrestricted free agent on July 1, 2012. At this point, re-signing him appears to be a non-negotiable (no pun intended) must, and a big pay day for the 27-year old should be upcoming. Many fans urged not to worry, claiming that the lack of offense in his game meant his raise couldn't be all that significant. But his camp is sure to be looking favourably at the contract Braydon Coburn just signed with the Philadelphia Flyers; a 4-year extension worth $4.5M a season. Braydon's numbers aren't all that much better than Josh's, with consecutive seasons under 20 points (though his career high is 36). They are roughly the same age, though at 6'5" and 220 lbs, Coburn's size is clearly an edge. Coburn averages a little more ice time than Gorges at 21:27 a game this year, but that ranks him third amongst Philly Ds whereas Gorges is #2 in Montreal (though that may change with Markov's return and depending on Subban's play). Should Coburn make more than Gorges? Yes, I would say so, but not by all that much. If Coburn gets $4.5M, it becomes easy to justify a $4M deal for Captain Kelowna.

With an influx of young prospect d-men in the coming seasons, Pierre Gauthier (and/or his eventual replacement) will have to make many decisions, but this summer, letting go of such an important cog as Gorges couldn't be the right one. He'll have to get creative, given that Carey Price also needs a big raise, Subban needs at least a medium-sized one, and the summer after will be Max Pacioretty's turn to cash in. But Gorges looks every bit like a future contender for the captaincy, so hopefully we'll be able to rest easy that he'll stay in Montreal for the long haul.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Your Canadiens: State of the Habs Update(s)

Admittedly, I wasn't able to watch last night's Montreal Canadiens game as I was travelling for business-related pursuits. As such, I have to base my opinion on highlights, reviews from various sources, and statistics. But even from only this, it isn't hard to understand that Habs fans could be slightly frustrated from a pair of losses in games that could have easily gone either way on the heels of a 4-game win streak.

So where does this leave the team and organization at large in the second month of the NHL season? Here is my take on a number of fronts:

1) The Forwards in Montreal

- Erik Cole has consistently been one of the team's most dominant forwards on a nightly basis over the last 7 or 8 games. His numbers may not be overly impressive, but he is "bringing it." He is providing the physical, big body presence the team lacked up front, and generating plenty of scoring chances by cutting to the net. The signing - at least for now - looks like a good one that is part of "the solution" to building a winning team.

- Max Pacioretty, the team's leading goal scorer with 6 and second-best-point-getter with 11, is developing into the top 6 power forward fans hoped for. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, however: we still haven't seen the best of Max. Last year, he would cut to the net the way that Cole does, or that Brendan Gallagher did in training camp. He has been hesitant to make those moves at times this year, to be expected after returning from such a significant injury. But if he re-finds that confidence, then look out, cause we'll be looking at a young and dominant player.

- Mike Cammalleri and Brian Gionta are players the Habs need more out of. Gionta is on pace for just 17 goals and less than 50 points, while Cammalleri may have 7 points in 11 games, but is a -5. These players are paid to lead the way up front, and though Jacques Martin was quick to point out the inexperience of his young players as part of a cause for the loss to the Oilers, it is the Cammalleris and Giontas that need to pick it up most. Still, if the NHL ever decides to award half a point for hitting the goal post, the Habs would have two perennial Hart Trophy candidates in these guys.

- Injury Updates: It seems like Andrei Kostitsyn will miss (or is questionable for) at least one more game as the Habs called Aaron Palushaj back up from Hamilton today. Palushaj has gone back and forth all season long, collecting 8 points in 7 games with the Bulldogs. The other injured forward, Scott Gomez, rejoined his teammates in practice earlier this week wearing a non-contact jersey, but hopes to get medical clearance for physical play as soon as today. With the green light, he could be back in action as soon as Saturday, though it'll be interesting to see where Martin plays him. Though he has produced, David Desharnais is a clear weak spot in the line-up to me, and giving some of his responsibilities to Gomez could upgrade the team. This situation will be an interesting one to monitor, as per Martin, both Kostitsyn and Gomez are considered day-to-day at this point.

2) The Defense in Montreal

- If Desharnais and Mathieu Darche have earned Martin's favoured status amongst forwards, Raphael Diaz somehow found a golden ticket on the back end. I don't dislike Diaz - I do see potential there - but on a defense that is already too small and soft, he doesn't fill a dire need. Having both him and Yannick Weber in the line-up is redundant at best, and that has nothing to do with the fact that they're both Swiss. Alexei Emelin may be caught out of position at times and not overly impressed in his North American debut, but if he is given some experience and allowed to develop properly, his mix of size and hitting ability are skills that would greatly improve the D group (see his hit on Ales Hemsky from last night).

- Injury Updates: Per the training staff, Andrei Markov is still "progressing well" and is nearing a return. He has been skating daily (with increasing duration) and working hard in the gym. Signed to be the team's clear #1 blueliner, his addition will be a huge one, even if he needs a few games of lesser minutes to get back into top shape. Given that Markov will take over powerplay duties (more on that later) from one of the current pointmen, I would like to see Diaz being the one sat when he returns, with either Josh Gorges or Jaroslav Spacek shifting over to the right side to accommodate the change.
There is more good news, being that Chris Campoli (remember him?) skated for the first time since his injury yesterday. While he is still a while away from a return, it is good to see that his rehab is progressing. He will be a welcome upgrade on either Weber or Diaz as an offensive defenseman who is less of a liability in his own end due to added strength. So while I still consider defensive zone play a big weakness on this team, there are a few solutions on the horizon.

3) The Powerplay

- Why Tomas Plekanec remains on the point on the powerplay, I do not understand. Yes, he does have two goals from there, which is more than Mike Cammalleri or Raphael Diaz have with the man advantage. But Plekanec is the team's top face-off man after Petteri Nokelainen, and his best offensive skills relate to being shifty with the puck as opposed to a big shot or precision passing. Sure, he is a two-way player, but as evidenced on the Oilers shorthanded goal yesterday, that doesn't mean he is a natural to play at the point.

- Similarly, I don't get the continued use of Mathieu Darche on the powerplay either. At least it's not at the expense of Erik Cole any longer, but once either Kostitsyn or Gomez are back in the line-up, they deserve those minutes far more than Darche. He can go to the net, sure, but so can Cole, Pacioretty, and Gionta. Darche is not an offensive player; he is a fourth liner at best who can occasionally fill in on another line. He would not be on any other team in the league's powerplay.

4) The Prospects

- Injury Updates: Jarred Tinordi returned to the London Knights line-up after missing a couple of weeks due to cuts suffered on his face during a fight. In his two games back, Tinordi turned in strong performances, finishing each game a +1 and picking up his third assist in 8 games to date.
Michael Bournival is nearing a return for the Shawinigan Cataractes. The young center was hoping to be ready for the Subway Super Series this week, and told staff he'd play at less than 100% if it would help his chances to make Team Canada for the upcoming World Junior Championships. Bournival was told not to worry, that his spot at the December camp was already assured, and that he should take his time to heal in full. He expects to be back in the line-up within a week to 10 days.

- Who's Hot?: With Bournival out and Danny Kristo blanked in consecutive games for the first time this season, Brendan Gallagher stepped back up to remain the hottest future Hab. With 8 points in 3 games so far in November, Gallagher is now at 16 goals and 27 points in just 15 games with the Vancouver Giants.
Also hot are a few NCAA prospects. Dustin Walsh, who showed good size and power forward instincts at Montreal rookie camp in September, had a 5-point weekend, giving him 7 points through 4 games with Dartmouth.
In Michigan, Greg Pateryn had back-to-back 2 assist games to sit at 2 goals and 10 points in 10 games, while frequent defense partner Mac Bennett scored a goal in each of those games giving him 2 goals and 9 points in the same time period. Pateryn is a senior and should be a lock to be signed and join the Hamilton Bulldogs next season, while Bennett might return for another year of college.

5) Oddball

- For anyone in the Dallas area, the Stars will be giving former Canadien Mike Ribeiro the bobblehead treatment on December 1st. The first 7,000 fans in attendance at that night's game against the Ottawa Senators will receive a bobblehead. For those (LIKE ME) who collect Canadiens-related memorabilia, this is good news as it is the first figure of Ribeiro ever produced. I'll certainly keep my eyes peeled to find one online!


Finally, with two losses dropping the Canadiens back below the .500 mark, the upcoming two game swing down to Phoenix and Nashville could be critical in determining how the team will fare this season. They have played well enough to win but come up pointless on numerous occasions, but unless they can pick up 4 points this week, they will continue to dig a hold in the Eastern Conference standings.

Thus, it's a big week for the Habs and their fans, so GO HABS GO!

Friday, November 4, 2011

Marc Antoine Godin Interviews Alexei Emelin

After season-after-season of failed attempts, Montreal Canadiens general manager Pierre Gauthier finally persuaded defenseman Alexei Emelin to give North American hockey a shot this year. Unfortunately, he has found himself in the role of 7th defender for the time being, and will thus be a healthy scratch for a 5th consecutive game tonight against the Ottawa Senators.

Whether or not you agree with Jacques Martin's decisions, if you're anything like me, you've been extremely curious to hear how Emelin feels about his time in Montreal thus far. Today, thanks to a great interview by Marc Antoine Godin of La Presse, we have Emelin's answers to some hot button questions. See the interview (in French), conducted through a translator, in its entirety here:


Translating some key points, Emelin states that he "has to prove that he has his place in this league." He has no real answer to the question of whether or not he's happy with how he's being used thus far, but points out that his coaches gave him plenty of confidence, trust, and ice time in Russia, though he knew he'd face stiffer competition for time with the Canadiens.

When asked the question everyone wants to know, whether a season of little ice time in Montreal would make him return to the KHL in the off-season, he responded that he's not sure; he's "here now, will continue working hard, and time will tell."

Emelin also adds that the transition to North America hasn't been an issue; that he is comfortable on North American sized rinks. He points to Andrei Kostitsyn as a big help in translating talks with the coaching staff and to Jaroslav Spacek for helping him with positional play on the ice. Finally, he mentions that while he isn't afraid to fight, he needs to be careful of his eye - seriously injured during a scrap in Russia - as further injury could leave serious permanent damage.

I, for one, sincerely hope that Emelin earns a full-time spot on the Montreal back end. He has shown on the international stage that he has huge potential, and he brings a skill set of size and physicality that the team certainly lacks. It would be a shame to lose such a talent before he had a real chance to show what he can bring.

Player Spotlight: Olivier Fortier

[Player Spotlight Archives]

Olivier Fortier is hardly a household name, even amongst Montreal Canadiens fans. This is, in part, no fault of his own, as Fortier has missed considerable time over his three year professional career due to injuries.

Montreal's third round pick in 2007, Fortier was never considered a prolific scorer, though he did top the 1 point-per-game mark in his final season with the Rimouski Oceanic, putting up 35 points in the 29 games he was limited to.

Unfortunately, he missed all but 1 regular season game in his rookie year with the Hamilton Bulldogs (2009-10), yet was still dressed for the team's 10 playoff games, a testament to his sturdy and reliable defensive play from the center position (he won the Guy Carbonneau Trophy as the QMJHL's top defensive forward in 2007-08).

His statistics may not seem overly impressive; 9 goals and 20 points over 68 AHL games last year, with further injury making him available for just 1 playoff game. But it says something about a player when, with those numbers, he continually earns scoring line and powerplay ice time. This isn't a case of Jacques Martin and Mathieu Darche either; he is never slotted into these roles, but rather works his way up. Fortier's shifts are earned strictly through hard work, faceoff skills, and a nose for the net.

Four AHL games ago, Habs fans were excited to see the debut of Louis Leblanc on the professional stage, returning from injury to join the Hamilton Bulldogs. And rightfully so. Leblanc dazzled with a goal, 2 assists, and first star honours in his debut. Much quieter also making his season debut that night was Fortier, held off the scoresheet. But perhaps you've missed what happened in the 3 following 'Dogs games, where Leblanc was held to just 1 assist total (not saying he played poorly), while Fortier potted a goal on each night (albeit all in losing causes) to give him 3 through 4 games.

Comparisons between Leblanc and Fortier won't end here as they will be battling for a similar job with the Canadiens in coming seasons. They are of similar size (both 6'0" and south of 200 lbs), versatile enough to line-up on wing or at center, and their bread and butter is two-way play. Hey, you can't even play the language card, with Fortier hailing from Ancienne-Lorette, Quebec. Of course, Leblanc's upside is much higher than Fortier's, and for Fortier to have any shot at an NHL future, he will need to stay healthy and prove the injury bug is behind him, but at 22 years old, he may be one of the least-talked about near-NHL ready prospects the Canadiens have.

Fortier will never be a top 6 forward in the NHL, but he could make a solid third or fourth line center. His limitation in Montreal may be his very average size on a team that wants to get bigger, but he has the potential to be a Samuel Pahlsson-type player with his defensive acumen, skating ability, and work ethic. Fortier will be a restricted free agent this summer, and with the Canadiens having a fresh group of young talent slated for Hamilton next season, he'll need to produce well and stay in the line-up to ensure he remains in the organization's long-term plans. Hopefully he does stick around, as losing a potential young NHL'er for nothing on a team with - at times - questionable bottom 6 depth seems like mismanagement.

You can catch Fortier, Leblanc, and their Bulldog teammates tonight as the team takes on the Houston Aeros at 7:30 PM EST. Listen to one of hockey broadcasting's great, Derek Wills, call the game on CHAM 820 radio here: http://cham.player.amri.ca/

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Habs Sign Jarred Tinordi to ELC

The Montreal Canadiens announced today that the club has signed 2010 1st round pick Jarred Tinordi to a 3-year entry level contract. The deal will pay him a signing bonus of $270,000, plus $810,000 per year, for a cap hit of $900,000 annually.

Tinordi, 19, was named captain of the London Knights at the start of this season. He has missed the last couple of weeks with cuts to his eye area suffered during a fight but is expected back in the line-up shortly.

In 63 games last year, the 6'7" rearguard scored 14 points, earned 140 PIMs, and was a -8, while logging big minutes (sometimes as much as 30 a game) for the Knights. Prior to his injury, Tinordi had 2 assists and was a +7 in 6 games this year.

Both this year and last, Tinordi looked good during Montreal's training camp, and he has a shot at being one of the defenders for the U.S. World Junior Championship squad over the Christmas holidays.

Tinordi should join the Hamilton Bulldogs (at least for practice) once the Knights season is up (if it ends before that of the Dogs), and should play full-time in the AHL next year (either way, his contract will only start ticking next season, and he won't count against the 50 contract limit until that point either). He will be part of a very strong incoming class of talent at the American League level next season, alongside Nathan Beaulieu, Brendan Gallagher, Michael Bournival, Morgan Ellis, Greg Pateryn, and likely Danny Kristo.

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In other Habs prospect news, forward Brendan Gallagher snapped a 2-game pointless skid last night in a big way. He scored his team's first 3 goals before assisting on an empty netter in a 4-2 win. Gallagher now has 14 goals and 23 points in just 13 games. He is tied for second in the WHL in goals despite having played at least 3 fewer games than all other leaders.

Around the League: Catching Up With Old Friends

As diehard hockey fans, Habs fans develop what feel like close personal relationships with the players on the team. It is not uncommon for Montrealers to feel like their mood is defined at least in part by the club's successes, so it is normal to feel an emotional bond with the players who determine the team's fate.

Unfortunately, between following the current Canadiens, Hamilton Bulldogs, junior prospects, and everything else, we don't always have time to continue following former Habs once they leave the city. Thus, today we look around the league at the starts of some who once wore the blue, blanc, et rouge. Note that the intent is not to lament over the fact that they were traded or allowed to leave, but just to provide an update on some of the athletes we used to love (or hate) watching.

Matt D'Agostini -RW, St. Louis Blues
In his first full season with the Blues last year, D'Agostini set career highs in goals (21) and points (46). He is off to a similar pace start to this campaign with 4 goals and 6 points through the first 11 games. I've always been a fan of D'Ags since watching him speed down the wing in Canadiens' development camp, so I'm glad he has found a home on a scoring line in St. Louis, averaging between 14 and 17 minutes a night.

Jaroslav Halak - G, St. Louis Blues
After being the Canadiens' playoff hero in 2010, Halak had a very average first season as the #1 in St. Louis (.910 save percentage and 2.48 GAA). He is off to an even shakier start this year, with his starting job in question as he has split time with Brian Elliott (who has outperformed him to date). At the moment, Halak's numbers come in at an atrocious .843 save percentage and 3.58 GAA with a 1-5 record.

Kyle Chipchura - C, Phoenix Coyotes
Chipchura has played only 1 game for the Coyotes this season before being assigned to the AHL's Portland Pirates. The former first rounder hadn't played in the American League since being a Hamilton Bulldog in 2008-09, when he scored 35 points in 51 games. In Portland, the awkward skating two-way center has 4 goals and 6 points through the first 8 games.

Sergei Kostitsyn - RW, Nashville Predators
The younger Kostitsyn brother continues to impress offensively, following up on a 2010-11 season where he hit the 50 point plateau. On a team that lacks in the forward ranks, Sergei plays 18+ minutes on most nights, though he was recently sidelined with a minor injury. Through 9 games played, he has picked up 3 goals and 8 points, one assist more than brother Andrei's output thus far.

Chris Higgins -LW, Vancouver Canucks
After leaving the Canadiens in the ill-fated Scott Gomez deal, Higgins' career took a tailspin. In Montreal, Higgins felt he was a deserving top 6 winger, capable of topping the 30 goal mark (and his career high of 27 didn't disagree). But with stops in New York, Calgary, and Florida over the next two seasons, he seemed penciled into a third line defensive forward role. Since joining the Canucks at last year's trade deadline, he has rejuvenated his career, playing an important role on the team's run to game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, and now starting the current campaign on an offensive tear. In 12 games, Higgins has scored 6 goals and added a pair of helpers, well on pace to smash last season's 13 goals and 28 points.

Maxim Lapierre - C, Vancouver Canucks
The Canadiens decided Lapierre wasn't in the long-term plans last season, resulting in his requesting a trade. The Anaheim Ducks also couldn't get the best out of Max, and so, like Higgins, he was moved to the Canucks at the trade deadline. Playing alongside Higgins, Lapierre was a valuable roleplayer during last season's playoff run, and has had a productive start to the year with 3 goals and 5 points in 12 games, numbers that would beat his highs of 15 goals and 28 points averaged out over a full season. Laps could have been a quality fourth line center for the Habs this year, averaging 11:46 of ice a night and going 51% in the face-off circle.

Pavel Valentenko -D, New York Rangers
Valentenko never played a game for the Canadiens, but was considered a top prospect when they brought him over from Russia. After a first season in the AHL, the tough defensive defenseman decided he could not support his family back home on an American League salary, and left back to Russia. He was tossed in as an incentivizer in the Scott Gomez deal, and the Rangers convinced him to give North America another shot. With a solid season back in the AHL under his belt, Rangers fans expected him to challenge for a job this year, but despite injuries on the back end, a disappointing training camp (and his own injury) has him playing for the Connecticut Whale, collecting 1 assist through 3 games.

Ryan McDonagh - D, New York Rangers
This one's still a sore spot for Habs fans, so I'll keep it brief. A first round pick in 2007, McDonagh was the central piece sacrificed by the Habs to acquire Gomez, amidst rumours of a slowed development and even one story claiming he didn't want to play for a Canadian team (very unconfirmed). He made his pro debut last year, playing 38 games in the AHL and 40 for the Rangers, and has gradually taken on a bigger and bigger role, being one of the team's top blueliners in the absence of the injured Marc Staal this season. McDonagh is second to only Dan Girardi in ice time on the team, averaging 24:49 per game, and despite traditionally being a defense-first player, has scored 3 goals and 5 points in 10 games. I don't think I need to tell anyone how much of a welcome addition he'd be to the Canadiens right now.

David Fischer - D, Florida Everblades
Speaking of first round picks, Fischer also never played a game for the Habs, and the team even decided they'd rathe rnot sign him and instead take the compensatory 2nd round pick. So what ever happened to the skinny 6'3" d-man? He signed with the Florida Everblades of the ECHL, scoring 29 points and a +12 rating over 63 games in a successful rookie season in which he saw action on both the penalty kill and powerplay. He re-signed with the club in September to spend a second season in the ECHL, where he is off to a 2 goal and 6 point start through 8 games. Should he continue at such a pace, an AHL club may take notice and his hockey career may be prolonged.

Mikhail Grabovski - C, Toronto Maple Leafs
Habs fans knew that Grabovski would be a solid offensive contributor when he was dealt away, but it was his off-ice issues and attitude that led to the trade. In Toronto, he has fit in well with Nikolai Kulemin in a top 6 forward role, being a 20+ goal and 50+ point contributor. After a slow start to this season, he has picked it back up, now with 4 goals and 7 points in 11 games. Many Canadiens fans get frustrated that the team "gave Grabovski away for nothing," but let's keep in mind there was a reasonable return at the time. The Habs received prospect defenseman Greg Pateryn and a 2nd round pick. Pateryn continued to develop nicely at the college level, while the 2nd rounder was traded to Chicago for Robert Lang, who was proving to be a nice addition prior to a season-ending injury.

Francis Bouillon - D, Nashville Predators
Bouillon fans will be happy to know that the 5'8" defenseman has made a full recovery from the concussion that limited him to 44 games last season. In 4 games this year, the 36-year old has played between 15 and 19 minutes, but has no points and a -3 rating thus far.

Tom Kostopoulos - RW, Calgary Flames
Canadiens fans were sad to see Kostopoulos go, as he was a quality fourth line energy guy in Montreal. After a year and a half in Carolina, the 6'0" winger now fills the same roll in Calgary where he averages just over 10 minutes a game, including 1:20 on the penalty kill. In 9 games this year, he has 2 points and a fight.

Jeff Halpern - C, Washington Capitals
Halpern's face-off stats are off the charts in Washington, which makes one wonder why Jacques Martin was so insistent to play him on the wing. He lacks Petteri Nokelainen's right-handedness, but has won draws at a 65.2% clip while posting 3 assists and a +2 rating in 9 games. He is averaging 11:50 per game, including 1:41 shorthanded and 0:40 on the powerplay.

Roman Hamrlik - D, Washington Capitals
Staying with the Caps, a guy I was really sad to see leave this summer was Roman Hamrlik. Sure, he's getting older and has lost a step or two, but he is a dependable defensive d-man who could have thrived with reduced minutes. His 1 goal and -2 rating in Washington may not be impressive, but the tough minutes he continues to log are, leading the team in total minutes played and second in average per game to Mike Green. His nightly average of 21:52 includes 1:47 shorthanded and 1:49 on the powerplay. If only there had been a way to retain Hamrlik's services for one final season instead of Jaroslav Spacek's.

Craig Rivet - D, Elmira Jackals
Many were surprised at Rivet's decision to sign a one-way ECHL contract this year after playing 14 games with the Columbus Blue Jackets last season. The fact is, certainly he could have gotten an AHL contract, but by signing an ECHL only deal for now, he will be free to sign a try-out with a club that may need his services dearly later into the season, such as one depleted by injuries at the NHL level. In 6 ECHL games, Rivet has collected 4 assists and 20 penalty minutes.

Guillaume Latendresse - RW, Minnesota Wild
Much like Benoit Pouliot in Montreal, Latendresse was on fire immediately following the deal that sent him to the Wild. While Pouliot's play trailed off after that first season, Latendresse's problems were conditioning and injury, playing only 11 games over the 2010-11 season in which he scored 3 goals and 6 points. Healthy again, he has been amongst Minnesota's best forwards in several of the first 10 games, though he has just 1 goal and 5 points to show for it. To his credit, while averaging over 16 minutes a night, he is a team-leading +4.

Benoit Pouliot - LW, Boston Bruins
There was a fear amongst Habs fans when this signing was announced that somehow Pouliot would put it all together in Boston. Well Canadiens faithful, you can breathe a collective sigh of relief. Pouliot has played 8 of Boston's 11 games, averaging just 9:43 a night. He has yet to pick up his first point, to go along with a -3 rating on the struggling Bruins.

Tom Pyatt - C/W, Tampa Bay Lightning
I was a big Tom Pyatt fan as a safe, penalty-killing fourth liner, though it was a fair assessment that the 4th line in Montreal needed to be bigger and tougher. I'm glad he has gotten a shot in Tampa, dressing on the wing in 7 of the team's first 12 games and playing just under 12 minutes a night in those appearances. Amongst T-Bay forwards, only Adam Hall and Nate Thompson have averaged more shorthanded minutes per game played than Pyatt, who has 1 assist and a -1 rating.

Marc-Andre Bergeron - D, Tampa Bay Lightning
After leaving Montreal, Bergeron split the 2010-11 season between the Tampa Bay Lightning and their AHL affiliate in Norfolk, with identical 2 goals and 8 points production in each league. He was in Tampa for their run to the conference finals, appearing in 14 post-season games. He was solid there... but no one saw this start to the 2011-12 season coming! Through 12 games, Bergeron is tied with Erik Karlsson for the NHL's defenseman scoring lead with 13 points. Though he doesn't play on the penalty kill, his 18:59 on ice per game are fourth most on the Tampa back end, and he has maintained a +2 rating. Of course, he leads all Lightning d-men in powerplay time with an average of 2:23 a game.

Alexandre Picard - D, Pittsburgh Penguins
After playing 43 games for the Canadiens last season, Picard started this campaign with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins of the AHL. In 9 games, he collected 3 points while showing a +7 rating, enough to earn him a call-up today as an injury fill-in with the Penguins.

James Wisniewski - D, Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets started the season off horribly, and their modest turnaround has coincided with Wisniewski's return from an 8 game suspension. With The Wizz in the line-up, the Jackets are an even 2-2, and though I still don't consider him a legitimate #1 defenseman, Wisniewski has averaged an astounding 28:20 of ice time per game, including 5:47 on the powerplay and 2:32 shorthanded. He seems to be handling the time fairly well, with 4 assists and a +2 rating to show for it thus far. Still hate the contract, but can't argue with the numbers to date.

Alexei Kovalev - RW, Moscow Oblast Atlant
Injuries have limited the 38-year old winger to just 5 of his KHL team's 16 games thus far, but he has produced well, with a goal and 4 points. For those that don't follow the Russian league closely, some of his teammates you may be familiar with include Nikolai Zherdev, Branko Radivojevic, and Janne Niskala.

Saku Koivu - C, Anaheim Ducks
Of course, I save my all-time favourite Hab for last. I was heartbroken when the Canadiens chose to let Saku go, but even I can acknowledge he is in the late stages of his career (though I would take him back in a heartbeat). Koivu found a home on the Ducks' second line with fellow Finn Teemu Selanne and veteran Jason Blake, though his output dropped from 52 points in 2009-10 to 45 in 2010-11. He had his first big game of 2011-12 last night with a goal and an assist, but still has just 5 points through 12 contests (while the ageless Selanne is up to an amazing 14 points). 36-year old Koivu unfortunately still takes the occasional undisciplined penalty that saw his time in Montreal cut short, but he plays big minutes in Anaheim, averaging 18:02 a game and winning 52.4% of his face-offs. With an average of 1:24 on the penalty kill a night, he is the only one of Anaheim's top 6 forwards to take a regular shift when down a man.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Is All Well in Habs Land? A Statistical Look

Last Wednesday, just after the Perry Pearn firing was announced, shortly before that evening's game against the Philadelphia Flyers, I had this exchange with a friend over Facebook chat:

  • October 26
    [friend]
    • maybe its a sign of things to come

    • let's lose HARD tonight

  • October 26
    Dan Kramer
    • heh

    • either the team needs to start being MUCH better, or team needs to keep losing

  • October 26
    [friend]
    • i agree

  • October 26
    Dan Kramer
    • good news is gauthier also announced markov is doing well

    • so that could help turn things around

    • i mean IF somehow we win all three of the next games

    • that's a huge momentum shift for our season

At the time, it was just me being my eternal Habs optimist self. At best, I thought, if they really picked their play up, perhaps they could walk out of the three game set with 4 points.

As has been the norm with this team for years, they perform against all expectations. What Habs fan hasn't witnessed an "easy game" against the last place Florida Panthers resulting in a 2-0 loss, or a tough match-up with the red hot Washington Capitals ending as a 4-1 win? This week was little different. The Boston Bruins are mired in the basement of the East, but even if admittedly they aren't playing well as a team right now, they remain the defending Stanley Cup champions with a roster that's been only barely tweaked from the one that hoisted the Cup.

Does that mean the Canadiens will walk into Ottawa Friday night and pitch a stinker, getting blown out by a team that is weak on paper but quite surprisingly one of the league's hottest early season success stories? Maybe. It's too early to conclude that a 3-game win streak has righted all wrongs and that all is well in Habs land. But what we do know is where another tough week would have virtually meant folding up and calling it a day on the 2011-12 campaign (or the ushering in of some dramatic changes), we instead find a team right in the thick of things.

For those that have been watching the team's daily rises and falls in the standings, don't. We're still in the early game. In the 6 seasons since the NHL lockout, it has typically required between 92 and 94 points to qualify for the playoffs in the Eastern Conference (outlier: 88 in 2009-10), with the average of the six years being 92. With 10 points through 11 games, the Habs are currently on pace for just 74.5 points, but of course, we're still very early. The quickest way for the team to get on pace to meet the mark would require a replication of the current 3-game win streak which would give them 16 points in 14 games after wins versus Ottawa, the New York Rangers, and the Edmonton Oilers. The team's record would then project to a 93.7 point season, which would meet or beat the 8th place East record in all but one of the post-lockout years (94 in 2007-08).

I don't mean to say that if the team doesn't rattle off three more victories over the next 10 days then all hope is lost. But Habs fans should not be placated by just three solid efforts on the heels of a disastrous season opening. Simply put: we're not out of the woods just yet.

Carey Price had a great three game set, enough to even earn him the first star of the week league-wide and lock up the Molson Cup for the month. The fact is that Price has been "good" all season long while at times getting little support from the team's skaters, but he had still be out-goaltended on numerous occasions (e.g. games against Miikka Kiprusoff, Ryan Miller...). Not so vs. the Flyers and Bruins, which has allowed him to raise his numbers on the early season back to respectable levels.

Another change over the last 3 was a major improvement in the face-off circle. If Scott Gomez takes a center spot upon his return and shift David Desharnais's 44.3% success rate to the wing, the team will have:
Tomas Plekanec - 53.1%
Scott Gomez - 53%
Lars Eller - 44%
Petteri Nokelainen - 60%
Not bad at all! By limiting the face-offs taken by Eller and Desharnais, the team's averages could be quite high.

In terms of production, entering the current 5 day break for the team, Plekanec and Max Pacioretty are tied for the team lead with 9 points in 11 games - on pace for 67 point seasons. Pacioretty, Plekanec, and surprising Travis Moen each have 4 goals, which puts them on pace for 29 on the year. Mike Cammalleri's 3 goals in 8 games would average out to just over 30 in 82, despite his inconsistent play over the first month. Considering the team's leaders in points and goals in 2010-11 had 57 and 29 respectively, these numbers appear satisfactory. Further, between the goals against and the output, the Canadiens have a goal differential of -1 thus far, which is actually good for 8th best in the East, better than current 4th place Ottawa's -6 and current 8th place Tampa Bay's -2.

Another interesting statistic has been time on ice. As we've mentioned previously, the club's defense both on paper and on the ice has been a major area of concern. Gone are the veteran horses in Roman Hamrlik and James Wisniewski, out is Andrei Markov, and in their place are a bunch of green rookies. The team has done a great job in making the transition by splitting time more evenly amongst its blueliners, particularly over the last 3 games (the post-Perry Pearn period). Last year's average time on ice leaders:
James Wisniewski - 22:56
Andrei Markov - 22:54 (only 7 GP)
Roman Hamrlik - 22:16
P.K. Subban - 22:16
Josh Gorges - 21:10 (only 36 GP)
Tomas Plekanec - 20:14

Thus far this season, only 4 players have averaged more than 20 minutes a night:
P.K. Subban - 23:48
Tomas Plekanec - 21:10
Josh Gorges - 20:44
Yannick Weber - 20:12

Interesting that Weber has seen the fourth most ice despite playing the first game and a half as a bottom 6 forward. This is a huge testament to how he has picked his game up in rebounding from a terrible training camp.

So all may not be well just yet with the Habs; there is still plenty of work to be done. But statistically, the team seems to be turning around their slow start, as evidenced by Price's numbers, the face-off stats, offensive output, and a better use of player personnel. And things can only improve once Andrei Markov - who skated for a first time since returning to Montreal yesterday - gets back into the line-up. Look for him to start practicing within 1-2 weeks.